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optimistic about vazquez??

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Postby LBJackal » Tue Apr 12, 2005 6:04 am

Well they tell you how good, to some degree, the pitcher actually was. It's good for forecasting their future ERA. Much more accurate than using their actual ERA. I gave a bunch of examples in an old Bonderman thread... I'll try to dig it up. It's using my version of DIPS (calculated a lot differently) but it's more geared towards fantasy since it doesn't erase the ballpark or defense factor. Back in a minute...
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Apr 12, 2005 6:12 am

OK here's the thread.

Here are the examples of the formula's use in the past:

LBJackal wrote:The formula said Glendon Rusch's ERA should have been 4.02 base don his K, BB, and HR in 2003, but in real life it was 6.42, quite a difference. In 2004 Rusch had a 3.75 ERA which doesn't seem all that shocking when you figure he was only 27 ERA points below his previous season's total. Bonderman's 2003 ERA should have been 4.75, not the 5.56 he actually had. Going back to previous years, Ryan Drese's aweful 6.55 ERA in 2002 should have been about 4.75.

Going the other way finding pitchers who had good luck, Kip Wells' 2003 looked great just by looking at ERA and BAA. 3.28 ERA, .233 BAA, how could you go wrong? But what SHOULD his ERA have been that year? About 4.36, more than enough information to tell you this guy's gonna be over-rated big time in 2004. So 2004 rolls around and he has a 4.55 ERA. People are shocked, thinking he was the next big thing. Sorry.

Another 2003 example is Ryan Franklin. His ERA was 3.57 in 2003. Again, people think he's a decent option as a 3rd starter maybe. Had a good ERA and BAA, so why not? Well his ERA should have been 4.60 according to my formula. 2004 rolls around and Franklin has a 4.90 ERA.
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Postby RynMan » Wed Apr 13, 2005 8:28 pm

Hmmm interesting! I will read up on these links, quite interesting!!

I wonder if I can do this for the pitchers in my club team that I play for? The defense in our team was average, and I would be interested to see if any of our pitchers were better (according the DIPS) than their ERA showed....? :-?
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Postby Purple Haze » Wed Apr 13, 2005 9:50 pm

Ho Hum :-? :-o

Go DBacks!!! ;-D
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Postby GSes » Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:00 pm

58/5

58 Strikeouts
to
5 Walks

for Javy Vazquez in APRIL 2003.

That season he ended up with a K/BB ratio of like

250/55

yes that is what the VAZ is capable of. He will show it tomrw nite vs washington, you have 1 day left to get him b4 his value goes back up.
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Postby great gretzky » Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:26 pm

this is BS, so I will try and repay the favor if someone want it. but the lady is calling, but this is way interesting. can someone give me (via pm or this post) that dips info for mussina, radke, livan hernandez? I'd love to move one of them for a buy low cadidate, and javier seems like one of those guys.


much appreciated, believe me.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Apr 13, 2005 11:00 pm

OK here they are but keep in mind it's early and the samples are small so it could be misleading. Livan is the only one that stands out. His DIPS ERA is ~3.70 and his actual is 5.40. For both Mussina and Radke their DIPS ERA is nearly identical to their actual.
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Postby AtlDynasty25 » Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:01 am

What do you guys think now? He's looking better.
Last edited by AtlDynasty25 on Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby GSes » Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:02 am

GSes wrote:58/5

58 Strikeouts
to
5 Walks

for Javy Vazquez in APRIL 2003.

That season he ended up with a K/BB ratio of like

250/55

yes that is what the VAZ is capable of. He will show it tomrw nite vs washington, you have 1 day left to get him b4 his value goes back up.


I think I was correct. ;-D
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Postby swingaway » Tue Apr 26, 2005 11:43 am

is there a site with the dips already cauclated or we have to do it ourselves.
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