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optimistic about vazquez??

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Postby RAmst23 » Mon Apr 11, 2005 10:25 pm

I'm not sure if I'm sold on him, but he was put on the WW in one of my leagues and I pounced on him. Him and Joel Pinero keep getting put on the waiver wire and I keep having to go pick them up. Tough work I tell ya.
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DIPS ERA?

Postby lifeform » Tue Apr 12, 2005 12:57 am

Amazinz wrote:It's a small sample but his DIPS ERA is ~3.65 and his actual ERA is 15.43.


Can you explain what a DIPS ERA is? I've never heard that term before.
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Re: DIPS ERA?

Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:04 am

lifeform wrote:
Amazinz wrote:It's a small sample but his DIPS ERA is ~3.65 and his actual ERA is 15.43.


Can you explain what a DIPS ERA is? I've never heard that term before.


Defense Independent Pitching Statistic

I'm not sure exactly how it is calculated, but it attempts to remove luck, team defense, and other variables that influence the regular pitching statistic. When there is a huge difference between actual ERA and DIPS ERA, it means something is amiss. I'm sure somebody will be able to elaborate on that further...
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:06 am

[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:07 am

Here is an explanation on how to calculate it:

http://www.futilityinfielder.com/dipsexpl.html
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DIPS

Postby lifeform » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:09 am

Thanks for the info! This is good stuff.
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Postby nikku88 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:10 am

Some guy dropped him in our league, so I hope I can claim him.
If not, then I don't want him to turn the corner :)
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:13 am

An interesting note about Vazquez and his DIPS is that last year he was absurdly lucky in the first half and then almost as if it was balancing itself out he was incredibly unlucky in the second half. His actual ERA for the season is fairly close to the DIPS ERA which means he wasn't as bad as he looked down the stretch and when you factor in the move to the NL and his poor start he makes an excellent buy-low candidate.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:28 am

My ~ERA (like DIPS) is 3.92 for him so far. Not great, and doen't reflect that he was very hittable, but long-term you can't expect anything close to taht hit rate to remain.

Then there's guys like Hudson... he only allowed 1 ER but his ~ERA was 7.16! Meaning he should have allowed 4 ER with the way he pitched.

Things like this are what you should look out for... deceiving ERAs early in the season.
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Postby RynMan » Tue Apr 12, 2005 5:59 am

LBJackal wrote:My ~ERA (like DIPS) is 3.92 for him so far. Not great, and doen't reflect that he was very hittable, but long-term you can't expect anything close to taht hit rate to remain.

Then there's guys like Hudson... he only allowed 1 ER but his ~ERA was 7.16! Meaning he should have allowed 4 ER with the way he pitched.

Things like this are what you should look out for... deceiving ERAs early in the season.


Just curious, how accurate or useful are DIPS really? They seem like they tell alot, but can you draw accurate conclusions from them? I dont know alot about them and am keen to learn....
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