Player Projections and Stat Alanysis Brainstorming Forum

[mkoss]

Arlo was nice enough to give us our own forum for discussing projections and stat analysis. Come on over ( http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... m.php?f=25 ) and give us your ideas!

Michael.

[JDD]

This can be a good thread... give me a few days and I will start throwing out some players' names and how I see them in 2003.

I might go position by position, and rank them like stocks... players on the rise, players on the decline, or players holding steady.... with a few details for some players.

Something like...

Mike Piazza... on the rise.

Paul LoDuca.... holding steady

Benito Santiago... on the decline.

Meaning, how I see them fairing from their 2002 numbers and recent level of play over two or three years.

Others of course are free to do what they want, even project actual numbers. But I consider that risky business...

--JDD

[L0rdB23]

what do you guys think Contreras will do .. im not a yankee fan at all but i do a early draft with my friends and i am thinkin about takin him as an early risk cuz we keep 5 guys on each team n the pitchin is very thing, the best guys left are old guys like glavine and moyer .. also if i would like ur opinions on who u think is better between konerko and palmeiro assuming i am taking the 1b for just 1 year ..thanks and n e responses to this are greatly apreciated

[D-Buc]

Contreras will get between 14-16 w.ins with an ERA around 3.75

Go with Palmeiro if it's just this year. It's not even close.

[dwezilwoffa]

I have the choice between keeping Paul Konerko and Josh Phelps from Toronto. I am leaning towards Phelps because of the catcher position and the way Konerko folded last season. What are your projections and which way should I lean.

[hbj79]

Be careful about drafting Phelps, he won't play catcher this year and he didn't play one game of catcher in MLB last year. Make sure he qualifies in your league (based on his minor league games played). He is awful defensively and Toronto has two other great catching prospects who will play. Look for them to use him as a Dh until they can Unload Delgada next year.

[trevisc]

keep konerko. His runs/rbis will go up even further this year cuz the Big Hurt will be back in full effect!

[The Guru_fbc]

for one year, definitley take palmeiro, he is one of the best hitters in the game, and he takes viagra, so you know his mind is clear and he will always be fresh

[mkoss]

I think you guys missed the point of this thread. It was not to discuss who we think is better or who we think we should drop/add. It was an announcement of a new forum dedicated to discussing the creation of a projecting algorithm. This could really help us all out a lot. I don't think anyone here can discount the value of having good projections for next year, and what better way to ensure they are good projections than doing it yourself? Also, you can't beat the price! So please come over to the projections forum and give your input. That forum is stagnating badly and I will probably ask Arlo to kill it soon if I am the only person using it.

[R H]

I have watched the opening discussion…..Interesting…… but does the variability of performance correlate tightly to psychological and biological factors which are difficult to extrapolate vs. something like park factor. With park factor you have such a big sample size as all teams move through a park and you can compare to the home team who provides the paired performance sample? Apart from age and recovery time for a given injury things are pretty loose. Just look at Rick Ankiel for an example.