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Betting Baseball

Postby bmcginni » Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:24 pm

No, this isn't a Pete Rose thread.

Anyone in here bet on baseball games? If so, how about a discussion of some strategies (something more than just looking at Starting Pitchers).
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Re: Betting Baseball

Postby Strasil42 » Fri Apr 08, 2005 6:00 pm

bmcginni wrote:No, this isn't a Pete Rose thread.

Anyone in here bet on baseball games? If so, how about a discussion of some strategies (something more than just looking at Starting Pitchers).


Just look at starting pitching....

thats what i do. Bet on teams that are real good since the spreads always the same. Take Randy johnson all year and you should be happy.
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Postby Bobby Baseball » Fri Apr 08, 2005 6:03 pm

Baseball betting is all about odds. since just about anyone can pick the Yankees over the D-Rays straight up, bookmakers often attach huge odds on the favorites. for example, you may have to risk $130 to win $50 on the game above. so what i like to do is bet the run line. its kind of like the football point spread. instead of just winning the game, the favorite has to win by 1.5 runs or more. for this, the huge vig is eliminated and its just like a straight bet, $55 to win $50. if you think about it, if you bet them to win, they have to win by 1 run anyway, so really your just laying an extra half run while eliminating the huge odds.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Apr 08, 2005 7:13 pm

I bet a little bit last year with Pro-Line (you can do it at the grocery store here - apparently it isn't like that in the states) but didn't throw too much into it. I don't know all the fancy games they have for it now, but for football they added a bunch of new ones. I think they just used to have parlay bets with a minimum of 3 games. Bet * odds = payout, pretty simple. They have a spread too I think, but I don't like taht as much.

Today if I was betting I might pick the White Sox, Padres, and Rockies to win. The Sox because it's pretty even and Lohse sucks, and the Sox are pretty big underdogs apparently. Padres because they're going against Josh Fogg, and the Rockies because Francis is a hell of a lot better than Lowry, and the Colorado hitters have been hot. I'm not playing that but watch them all win and I miss out on $60 for a $10 bet.

And strasil, where do you bet that the odds are always the same regardless of pitcher? That's pretty stupid of the company to do. Either they're losing a lot of money, or they never give out good odds at all.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Apr 08, 2005 7:28 pm

I started a Betting forum at the Football Cafe because frankly betting on football is just more fun.

The only thing that I bet on in baseball is the total run line. By knowing the pitchers parks and the relative hotness of the teams the over/under is a good thing to bet. I don't bet on winners. It's just too hard to predict in baseball.
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Postby Juhlz » Sun Apr 10, 2005 12:25 am

I really like this idea. I use Sportsinteraction.com - great site based in Canada. They are legit and will mail checks whenever you request them. Let's keep this thread going. Who do you like tomorrow, (Sunday)?
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Re: Betting Baseball

Postby thehat » Sun Apr 10, 2005 2:22 am

Strasil42 wrote:
bmcginni wrote:No, this isn't a Pete Rose thread.

Anyone in here bet on baseball games? If so, how about a discussion of some strategies (something more than just looking at Starting Pitchers).


Just look at starting pitching....

thats what i do. Bet on teams that are real good since the spreads always the same. Take Randy johnson all year and you should be happy.


Strasil...what in the world are you talking about? "The spreads always the same"....quite possibly the most astonishing piece of misinformation ever to appear on these pages.

There's this thing called a "money line" in baseball. There's no pointspread. The only thing resembling a pointspread is the "runs line" and there's a price involved there as well.

Also, your advice to simply "take Randy Johnson all year and you should be happy" is absurd. Sure, RJ is likely to win more often than not, but when he doesn't (or the team doesn't when he pitches) you'll have to pay through the nose. I'm not saying a blanket bet on him every time he pitches won't make you money for the season, but considering he'll be laying an average price well in excess of -200 (it was closer to -300 today), that's hardly the recipe for success. No one sharp ever lays that kind of lumber, and in fact virtually every sharp guy I know plays far more dogs than favorites.

As far as the methodology for betting is concerned, you cannot go on starting pitching and be successful long term. If it was that simple, the books would all go bust and that's not happening. There are a number of variables that go into handicapping every game, and determining where there's value. But if you are playing with starting pitching as your key indicator, restrict yourself to playing matchups where you feel you have an edge and you're getting a price. Best example today was Washington with Livan vs. Moehler and the Marlins. Livan has generally pitched well in that park throughout his career, he is clearly superior to Moehler, and the Nationals were a small underdog. That's decent value, and you can do okay playing that way.

If you're looking for a blind system that will get you a net profit over the long haul, consider road dogs that are looking to avoid a three game sweep. It's not a bad way to go, as you can hit 50% and make monet since you're only betting on underdogs.
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Postby wrveres » Sun Apr 10, 2005 6:13 am

Here is tomorrows action ...
Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Texas and Philly all look enticing to me.
Who do you like?

915 LOS DODGERS (100)
916 ARIZONA (-110)
D LOWE vs. R ORTIZ

901 NY METS (-115)
902 ATLANTA (105)
P MARTINEZ vs. J SMOLTZ

909 MILWAUKEE (140)
910 CHICAGO CUBS (-150)
V SANTOS vs. G MADDUX

917 CLEVELAND (130)
918 DETROIT (-140)
J DAVIS vs. J BONDERMAN

903 WAS NATIONALS (170)
904 FLORIDA (-190)
J PATTERSON vs. J BECKETT

905 CINCINNATI (145)
906 HOUSTON (-160)
E MILTON vs. R OSWALT

925 KANSAS CITY (190)
926 LAA ANGELS (-220)
B ANDERSON vs. B COLON

929 CHI WHITE SOX (140)
930 MINNESOTA (-150)
M BUEHRLE vs. JO SANTANA

919 BALTIMORE (150)
920 NY YANKEES (-165)
R LOPEZ vs. C PAVANO

911 PITTSBURGH (140)
912 SAN DIEGO (-150)
D WILLIAMS vs. T REDDING

913 COLORADO (180)
914 SAN FRANCISCO (-200)
J KENNEDY vs. J SCHMIDT

927 TEXAS (105)
928 SEATTLE (-115)
R DRESE vs. G MECHE

907 PHILADELPHIA (150)
908 ST. LOUIS (-165)
J LIEBER vs. C CARPENTER

923 OAKLAND (-120)
924 TAMPA BAY (110)
R HARDEN vs. D BRAZELTON

921 BOSTON (-125)
922 TORONTO (115)
M CLEMENT vs. T LILLY
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Postby Mookie4ever » Sun Apr 10, 2005 8:23 am

Seattle Meche (-115) vs Texas Drese in Seattle looks like a good bet.

-220 Angels Colon vs. KC Anderson is a huge margin. I would take KC +190.

Cinci Milton +145 vs. Houston Oswalt is also good.
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Postby heavyhitter » Sun Apr 10, 2005 8:46 am

take detroit, marlins on the runline and oakland....i'm on a little roll and hope to continue today...went 5-1 yesterday with the brew crew coming up short(yanks runline, angels runline, nationals, braves, astros)
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