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When Will Pedro Stop Whining

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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Apr 10, 2005 2:08 pm

Arlo wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:And Santa will visit you this year. O:-) :-D

Santametrics? :-D


Isn't that a step below CafeMetrics? ;-D

With Bonds out of the picture, 11 pages to Pedro, should keep the Bonds haters happy. Boston made a huge mistake letting Pedro go. I would be miffed if i was Pedro too.

As far as Pedro, his peak is as good as any, but imo, he's a bit short of Clemens and RJ, the best 2 modern day sp imo. The key thing is innings. Clemens has 4,500, RJ, 3,300, Pedro 2,200. Roger has twice as manny innings, over 2,000 more. That's big, real big. I love Pedro as much as anyone, but until he throws 3,500 innings, he's not with those 2 yet. Think of it this way, 300 innings of a 3 era has more value then 150 innings of a 2.70 era, just like 600 abs of 300, has more value then 300 abs of 330. I don't think anyone would disagree that Pedros era+ probably will drop some as he enters his final years. Pedro should have a the better era+, as RJ and Clemens played past their peak years.
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Apr 10, 2005 3:11 pm

Pedro has had 4 seasons with an ERA+ of more than 200. RJ, Clemens, and Maddux, have 4 seasons like that combined. So it's not just because he hasn't had the late-career decline that makes his ERA+ better. His ERA+ is better because he was better. Yes I agree he hasn't pitched enough innings, but like I said unless he really falls off the face of the earth over the new few seasons it should be a formailty to retain top spot in of ERA+. He'll never catch Rocket or Maddux in IP but does that mean he wasn't better? Through age 32 the exact same gap in ERA+ exists between Pedro/Rocket/Maddux, but RJ is much further down. We'll never know until Pedro actually pitches those innings (maybe 800 more), but I doubt that if he does his ERA+ will drop below 150.
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Postby nuggets » Sat Apr 16, 2005 1:51 am

DK wrote:
nuggets wrote:
DK wrote:OK, for the hell of it:

I decided to do a calculation of Park Adjusted Runs Saved by each pitcher (IE the amount of runs a pitcher saved, park adjusted, in any given season) with a baseline of 200 IP/Season.

Clemens per 32 starts has a PARS of 22.84.

Pedro per 32 starts has a PARS of 27.48.

Now, this is a fairly new method that hasn't been entirely approved. But its calculations do make sense.


DK wrote:baseline of 200 IP/Season.


Come on now, 200 IP that seems rediculous to judge the best upon. Like 0-60 vs. the 1/4 mile.


What do you mean? I'm not following you... the 200 IP baseline means that in their case, the average pitcher pitches roughly 200 innings in those seasons (which I think is quite high, actually.)

Maybe you're interpreting the stat incorrectly.


200 IP is quite high? mK. More like what is expected as a minimum from any quality SP in the league and of course, with a few exceptions (Pedro ;-) )


HOOTIE wrote:
Arlo wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:And Santa will visit you this year. O:-) :-D

Santametrics? :-D


Isn't that a step below CafeMetrics? ;-D

With Bonds out of the picture, 11 pages to Pedro, should keep the Bonds haters happy. Boston made a huge mistake letting Pedro go. I would be miffed if i was Pedro too.

As far as Pedro, his peak is as good as any, but imo, he's a bit short of Clemens and RJ, the best 2 modern day sp imo. The key thing is innings. Clemens has 4,500, RJ, 3,300, Pedro 2,200. Roger has twice as manny innings, over 2,000 more. That's big, real big. I love Pedro as much as anyone, but until he throws 3,500 innings, he's not with those 2 yet. Think of it this way, 300 innings of a 3 era has more value then 150 innings of a 2.70 era, just like 600 abs of 300, has more value then 300 abs of 330. I don't think anyone would disagree that Pedros era+ probably will drop some as he enters his final years. Pedro should have a the better era+, as RJ and Clemens played past their peak years.


;-D
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Postby thehat » Sat Apr 16, 2005 2:52 am

Pedro in his peak years was the best pitcher I've seen since Koufax in his prime years.

I'll leave the stats out of it, although they sure don't hurt the argument. What always amazed me was the amount of space between the bat being swung and where the ball was at the time. These were major league hitters, and it was simply hard to believe how much they missed by with all that incredible late movement on the ball. You just don't see these guys miss the ball by a foot, and yet they did just that constantly vs. Pedro, just as they did against Koufax.
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Postby nuggets » Sat Apr 16, 2005 3:13 am

The worst swings I've seen have been vs. Randy Johnson.
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Postby Tavish » Sat Apr 16, 2005 3:14 am

nuggets wrote:The worst swings I've seen have been vs. Randy Johnson.


The worst swings I've seen have been by Randy Johnson.
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Postby wrveres » Sat Apr 16, 2005 7:15 am

Tavish wrote:
nuggets wrote:The worst swings I've seen have been vs. Randy Johnson.


The worst swings I've seen have been by Randy Johnson.


:-b :-b

Oh so true.
Its even funnier to see him get a hit and run the bases.
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Postby DK » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:26 am

nuggets wrote:
DK wrote:
nuggets wrote:
DK wrote:OK, for the hell of it:

I decided to do a calculation of Park Adjusted Runs Saved by each pitcher (IE the amount of runs a pitcher saved, park adjusted, in any given season) with a baseline of 200 IP/Season.

Clemens per 32 starts has a PARS of 22.84.

Pedro per 32 starts has a PARS of 27.48.

Now, this is a fairly new method that hasn't been entirely approved. But its calculations do make sense.


DK wrote:baseline of 200 IP/Season.


Come on now, 200 IP that seems rediculous to judge the best upon. Like 0-60 vs. the 1/4 mile.


What do you mean? I'm not following you... the 200 IP baseline means that in their case, the average pitcher pitches roughly 200 innings in those seasons (which I think is quite high, actually.)

Maybe you're interpreting the stat incorrectly.


200 IP is quite high? mK. More like what is expected as a minimum from any quality SP in the league and of course, with a few exceptions (Pedro ;-) )


I don't think you understand what I just told you. 200 IP is the baseline for the average pitcher. Since it's the base for both pitchers, no matter where I set it Pedro's numbers will still be higher.

If I set the baseline at 400 IP, the numbers would be the exact same- just cut in half. If I set it at 100 IP, the numbers would be doubled. The ratio remains constant at all times.

Understood?
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Postby nuggets » Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:28 pm

No I really don't understand how the baseline works I'd have to see the math.

Main point is that looks like it works great for evaluating average pitchers but things change when you talk about the best and less than 4% of the sample.
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Apr 16, 2005 7:30 pm

nuggets wrote:The worst swings I've seen have been vs. Randy Johnson.


That reminds me of the times that he threw a slider to a RH hitter and they swung and missed and got hit by the pitch. :-D
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