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When Will Pedro Stop Whining

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Postby donny23 » Sat Apr 09, 2005 10:29 am

nuggets wrote:
DK wrote:I'd take Pedro in his prime. It wouldn't be a hard choice, either.


And I guess if we are going with greatest pitcher of our time in his prime I go with the Doc. (Have to throw a sleeper in right?)

Dwight Gooden, SP, 1985 New York Mets
Stats: 24-4 record, 1.53 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, 268 K, 276.2 IP
A player who wasn't struck by the "sophomore slump," Gooden actually improved upon his 1984 rookie season, in which he set a new rookie strikeout record. In 1985, he wound up winning the NL Triple Crown as well as the Cy Young award, leading the majors in wins, ERA and strikeouts and finishing second in WHIP. Gooden also had 16 complete games and eight shutouts, numbers that now seem virtually unreachable.


Pedro certianly can hang with that WHIP and those K as career highs but can't touch those IP, CG, SHO and is a little off that ERA. Doc didn't peak as long 8-o and his eyes probably looked just like that for most of it but damn that was a year.




Fantasywise I might be pursuaded to go with Pedro but the IP would give Doc's ERA more weight in this example:

Pedro Martinez, SP, 1999 Boston Red Sox
Stats: 23-4 record, 2.07 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 313 K, 213.1 IP
In another of the most dominating pitching performances in baseball history, Martinez won the AL Triple Crown and Cy Young award while leading the majors in wins, ERA and WHIP in 1999. His 2.07 ERA was a full three runs below the league average of 5.07, and he set career highs in wins and strikeouts despite making just 29 starts. Martinez struck out at least 10 batters on 13 occasions in 1999, carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning or later three times and even struck out 17 Yankees in a one-hit effort in September.

And Doc's Wins give him a slight edge in 5 x 5 scoring here:

Pedro Martinez, SP, 2000 Boston Red Sox
Stats: 18-6 record, 1.74 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, 284 K, 217 IP
Fantasy owners love to see a pitcher keep runners off the basepaths, and no pitcher in history did it better than Martinez in 2000. He set the single-season record for WHIP with his 0.737 mark, and he registered an ERA 3.25 points below the league average. Martinez's win total might leave something to be desired, but in his second straight AL Cy Young season, he was about as mistake-free as a pitcher can be.


But if you think about how wins are much easier to get with middle relief than 0.737 WHIP 8-o which is the best ever. In reality I'd have to take this season, but then again Ks are streamable(new word?) too. Shoot I'll take Doc just 'cause I like him and 1.53 ERA ain't bad, right?


And one last stat. Unit's park adjusted ERAs are better than Pedro's overall. EDIT I don't think I understand the *lgERA so I guess it's Pedro who has the better adjusted if I'm getting it right now?


What do you feel about that DK? You've already made it clear you want the guy with the best stuff, the most dominant in a short-span. How do the WARP peaks compare for these two?
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Postby DK » Sat Apr 09, 2005 11:37 am

donny23 wrote:
nuggets wrote:
DK wrote:I'd take Pedro in his prime. It wouldn't be a hard choice, either.


And I guess if we are going with greatest pitcher of our time in his prime I go with the Doc. (Have to throw a sleeper in right?)

Dwight Gooden, SP, 1985 New York Mets
Stats: 24-4 record, 1.53 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, 268 K, 276.2 IP
A player who wasn't struck by the "sophomore slump," Gooden actually improved upon his 1984 rookie season, in which he set a new rookie strikeout record. In 1985, he wound up winning the NL Triple Crown as well as the Cy Young award, leading the majors in wins, ERA and strikeouts and finishing second in WHIP. Gooden also had 16 complete games and eight shutouts, numbers that now seem virtually unreachable.


Pedro certianly can hang with that WHIP and those K as career highs but can't touch those IP, CG, SHO and is a little off that ERA. Doc didn't peak as long 8-o and his eyes probably looked just like that for most of it but damn that was a year.




Fantasywise I might be pursuaded to go with Pedro but the IP would give Doc's ERA more weight in this example:

Pedro Martinez, SP, 1999 Boston Red Sox
Stats: 23-4 record, 2.07 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 313 K, 213.1 IP
In another of the most dominating pitching performances in baseball history, Martinez won the AL Triple Crown and Cy Young award while leading the majors in wins, ERA and WHIP in 1999. His 2.07 ERA was a full three runs below the league average of 5.07, and he set career highs in wins and strikeouts despite making just 29 starts. Martinez struck out at least 10 batters on 13 occasions in 1999, carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning or later three times and even struck out 17 Yankees in a one-hit effort in September.

And Doc's Wins give him a slight edge in 5 x 5 scoring here:

Pedro Martinez, SP, 2000 Boston Red Sox
Stats: 18-6 record, 1.74 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, 284 K, 217 IP
Fantasy owners love to see a pitcher keep runners off the basepaths, and no pitcher in history did it better than Martinez in 2000. He set the single-season record for WHIP with his 0.737 mark, and he registered an ERA 3.25 points below the league average. Martinez's win total might leave something to be desired, but in his second straight AL Cy Young season, he was about as mistake-free as a pitcher can be.


But if you think about how wins are much easier to get with middle relief than 0.737 WHIP 8-o which is the best ever. In reality I'd have to take this season, but then again Ks are streamable(new word?) too. Shoot I'll take Doc just 'cause I like him and 1.53 ERA ain't bad, right?


And one last stat. Unit's park adjusted ERAs are better than Pedro's overall. EDIT I don't think I understand the *lgERA so I guess it's Pedro who has the better adjusted if I'm getting it right now?


What do you feel about that DK? You've already made it clear you want the guy with the best stuff, the most dominant in a short-span. How do the WARP peaks compare for these two?


I don't have the WARP numbers, quietstorm does.

But, if you really want to compare the two...

Gooden had one unfathomable year in 1985, and two pretty good/great years surrounding them.

Pedro in 1999 and 2000 was much better than Doc was in 1985, once you factor in league and park effects.

Doc in '85 had a 1.53 ERA- In a league where the ERA was 3.45.
Pedro in '99 had a 2.07 ERA- In a league where the ERA was 5.07.
Pedro in '00 had a 1.74 ERA- In a league where the ERA was 4.97.

Pedro's 1 and 2 years are both better than Doc's 1 year. Pedro's 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and maybe 8 if you like his relief stats were either much better or at the same level as Doc's #2 season.

Consistent play for a pitcher over a five to nine-year period is crucial. Doc had three good years, and they were the first three of his career.
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Postby DK » Sat Apr 09, 2005 11:38 am

nuggets wrote:And one last stat. Unit's park adjusted ERAs are better than Pedro's overall. EDIT I don't think I understand the *lgERA so I guess it's Pedro who has the better adjusted if I'm getting it right now?


I don't think you understand them... Pedro's Adjusted ERA's are by far the best of all time.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/ERAplus_career.shtml
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Postby Transmogrifier » Sat Apr 09, 2005 11:39 am

Man, look what I started. :-b

I'm glad to see that people recognize the greatness of Pedro, even if they disagree on the extent of i. ;-D
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Postby afromangettindrunk » Sat Apr 09, 2005 5:32 pm

pedro is the most electric pitcher i have ever witnessed. i saw him pitch three times during his boston tenure and ive never been so awed by his dominance. love him or hate him, hes a goofball and he pitched like he was god for a string of years.
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Postby donny23 » Sat Apr 09, 2005 6:06 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:Man, look what I started. :-b

I'm glad to see that people recognize the greatness of Pedro, even if they disagree on the extent of i. ;-D


I think we all generally agree about the extent of Pedro's greatness. Comparing him vs Rocket is basically saying he's one of the best ever.
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Apr 09, 2005 7:43 pm

IMO Pedro is the best pitcher of the past few decades, bar none. Maybe even longer than that (I don't want to say best ever because there are way too many pitchers and variables to account for - but I can't think of anybody better), but I'd say he'd been better than Maddux, Clemens, or anybody recent. He hasn't been around as long - only 14 years - but he's still been better when he's pitched. Looking at his stats, and taking into account how the rest of the league does too (but this is somewhat over-stated as there are more teams now than there were 20 years ago meaning the talent pool is diluted and that makes the gap between the best and worst even greater) there is nobody even close. If he fails horribly over the next few years, then we can maybe say another guy was better over his, but not until then. He's so far ahead of every single pitcher in the history of baseball in ERA+ that it's ridiculous. He's at +167 and the next best is Lefty Grove at +148 which is a 19 point gap. Aftrer that there isn't a gap of more than 2 points until you get to 39th overall.
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Postby DK » Sat Apr 09, 2005 7:49 pm

To add on to the last statement you made, LBJ, the difference between #1 and #2 (Pedro and Grove) in terms of adjusted ERA is the same difference between #2 and #38.

It's absolutely insane.
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Postby afromangettindrunk » Sat Apr 09, 2005 8:42 pm

LBJackal wrote:there are more teams now than there were 20 years ago meaning the talent pool is diluted and that makes the gap between the best and worst even greater) there is nobody even close.


there is also much more talent to pick from the pool now, too. there are quite a few more people on the planet now than 20-30 years ago. for example, in 1980 the world population was 4.4 billion, compared with today's 6.4ish billion. also, players are coming from more countries to play pro ball and there have been vast improvements in player health care/training techniques and the like. just some things to factor in which have influenced the talent level of the game.
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Postby donny23 » Sun Apr 10, 2005 10:17 am

LBJackal wrote:IMO Pedro is the best pitcher of the past few decades, bar none. Maybe even longer than that (I don't want to say best ever because there are way too many pitchers and variables to account for - but I can't think of anybody better), but I'd say he'd been better than Maddux, Clemens, or anybody recent. He hasn't been around as long - only 14 years - but he's still been better when he's pitched. Looking at his stats, and taking into account how the rest of the league does too (but this is somewhat over-stated as there are more teams now than there were 20 years ago meaning the talent pool is diluted and that makes the gap between the best and worst even greater) there is nobody even close. If he fails horribly over the next few years, then we can maybe say another guy was better over his, but not until then. He's so far ahead of every single pitcher in the history of baseball in ERA+ that it's ridiculous. He's at +167 and the next best is Lefty Grove at +148 which is a 19 point gap. Aftrer that there isn't a gap of more than 2 points until you get to 39th overall.


And if he only pitches one or two more years? Most of us have agreed that he has been better to this point in his career. We only think longevity puts Rocket over the top. I didn't even say that he has to pitch until Rocket's age. Just a few more years of solid pitching, not even greatness, would likely put him over the top in my mind.
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