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The art of the deal

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The art of the deal

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:38 pm

All right - I think Smoltz is going to be one of the top pitchers in the league this year. But he clearly sucked today. How do you go about prying him from somebody else? What do you offer? When do you offer? I don't want to offer to quickly and give them an inflated sense of his value. But I don't want to wait too late and wait for him to get on track and raise his value.

When do you propose a trade for a top player that's started off slowly? Especially a guy like Smoltz, who had some closer-to-starter question marks coming into this season.

How do you rip someone off? Anybody got any tips?
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:43 pm

You don't unless you play with morons. No one is going to trade a top SP because of 1 crummy start.
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Postby Tiki Barber's Barber » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:45 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:You don't unless you play with morons. No one is going to trade a top SP because of 1 crummy start.

Well not many people are gonna trade him just becuase of 1 bad game, but a bad game will influence your opinion of that player no matter what.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:46 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:You don't unless you play with morons. No one is going to trade a top SP because of 1 crummy start.


From another thread - both intelligent posters


i had very serious doubts about 37 yr old smoltz moving back into the rotation. i think the fantasy owners that took him the 6th round to be their number 2 starter made a monster mistake



I've always found it better to panic early. A late panic is nothing more than desperation


I think that Smoltz is a special case because he is trying a very difficult transition - and therefore, people might be more prone to give up on him.
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Postby ramble2 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:46 pm

You can probably get Smoltz at a discount. There is some question of whether he'll be able to make the transition back to SP. I'm not completely sold on him, though I wouldn't mind having him.

Try offering a solid, but replaceable, player. Dmitri Young, perhaps (though that might be a bit transparent ...)
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Postby duckbillgates » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:47 pm

I would either
a) wait a few days. If he has an offer on Smoltz tomorrow morning, he might realize that someone is trying to take advantage and realize he needs to think it through
b) wait for another bad Smoltz start. The problem with that is he might not have one for a while, in which case the perceived deflated value opportunity is gone. I have Johan. Tonight's 4-run first inning doesn't scare me in the least. Another two or three of those might have a lesser manager listening to trade offers he shouldn't listen to.
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Postby GrimZeke007 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:52 pm

Should I offer Bonderman for Smoltz? Classic buy low sell high? :-?
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Postby Transmogrifier » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:53 pm

AA, I don't wait at all. I jump on bad performances all season long. I find out what they need--either from a post them made, or just looking at their team, and make my pitch. I make an honest offer--or just below an honest offer and make it clear I'm willing to negotiate. Sometimes they take the offer, other times they counteroffer with something I would have offered initially.

I think the key is to find a name that you can send their way... Young wouldn't cut it. But Garcia is overrated, as you know, and there are others you can use.
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Postby JoeSoCal » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:13 am

Smoltz coming out of the closer role and into the rotation is in for a long year.

You may think you are buying low right now...but, you would be wrong.
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Postby Grouperman941 » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:22 am

Depending on the other owner, I might just be up front, make a fair offer and comment something like, "So, sick of Smoltzy yet? I'll take a chance on him."

or

I might make an offer on one of his better pitchers and try and 'settle' for Smoltz in the negotiation.

I would wait until the day of Smoltz's next start. Two bad starts with an offer on the table might blind him good.

We have one guy who is notorious for hitting the panic button some time in the first week or so. He's been lucky so far, but I know everyone's waiting to pounce when he posts his first vent.
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