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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Apr 05, 2005 5:22 pm

Just as a reference, Vlad was worth much more than Arod last yr. If you are projecting similar numbers for each, then Vlad should be worth much more again.

I think one of the problems here is a lack of agreement on value. I suggest using one of the free value calculators on the web to get a foundation from which to work from.
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Postby donny23 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 5:51 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Just as a reference, Vlad was worth much more than Arod last yr. If you are projecting similar numbers for each, then Vlad should be worth much more again.

I think one of the problems here is a lack of agreement on value. I suggest using one of the free value calculators on the web to get a foundation from which to work from.


:-? I disagree. I don't think the problem is an issue of value. Clearly Vlad was morth more last year. He hit a full 50 points higher than arod and their other numbers weren't far off. I think the issue more surrounds instinct and risk tolerance. I happen to think Vlad is a health risk. I think Arod has a better year than last year and Vlad has a worse year. That's my opinion. I don't need a program to tell me my opinion. If Vlad is healthy, I have said already he would be more valuable.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Apr 05, 2005 6:01 pm

donny23 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Just as a reference, Vlad was worth much more than Arod last yr. If you are projecting similar numbers for each, then Vlad should be worth much more again.

I think one of the problems here is a lack of agreement on value. I suggest using one of the free value calculators on the web to get a foundation from which to work from.


:-? I disagree. I don't think the problem is an issue of value. Clearly Vlad was morth more last year. He hit a full 50 points higher than arod and their other numbers weren't far off. I think the issue more surrounds instinct and risk tolerance. I happen to think Vlad is a health risk. I think Arod has a better year than last year and Vlad has a worse year. That's my opinion. I don't need a program to tell me my opinion. If Vlad is healthy, I have said already he would be more valuable.


fair enough.

I agree with you about Vlad being an injury risk - for some reason its just a gut feeling that his knees and/or back will cause him to miss significant time this yr.
At the same time I have no reason to think Arod wont do the same thing he's done every yr for the last 5 yrs or so - based on split stats of course - that is hit about .280-.290 with 35-40 HRs. The Sbs are the real x-factor to me and I expect those to drop below 20 - but thats a hunch more than anything.

I do understand what you are saying about risk tolerance, and everyone has their own and how they factor it in. But even still, value isnt subjective. You can say that obviously Vlad was worth more, but then the question is - yes, but how much more was he worth - specifically? Once you get that number, you can tweak it with your own risk factor. Thats all Im saying.
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Postby donny23 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 6:01 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:
bd3521 wrote:Vlad is more of risk then Arod is in my opinion

They are both healthy. Arod could get hurt stealing a base. I think its silly to rank the players on risk when it isn't really a huge risk. Its like not taking Pujols with the first 3 picks because of the foot thing.


I have these guys ranked close enough in value that I would tend to go with the guy that has a better health history. They are both compelte studs, so I don't think you could go wrong either way anyway. Oh well, this is what us geeks argue about. :-D
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Postby donny23 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 6:04 pm

I hear you cornbread. It's all personal taste IMO when you are talking about two greats like Vlad and Arod. With my top picks, I tend to steer clear of risks. When I get down into the later rounds, I'm all about risks.
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