Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Just as a reference, Vlad was worth much more than Arod last yr. If you are projecting similar numbers for each, then Vlad should be worth much more again.
I think one of the problems here is a lack of agreement on value. I suggest using one of the free value calculators on the web to get a foundation from which to work from.
I disagree. I don't think the problem is an issue of value. Clearly Vlad was morth more last year. He hit a full 50 points higher than arod and their other numbers weren't far off. I think the issue more surrounds instinct and risk tolerance. I happen to think Vlad is a health risk. I think Arod has a better year than last year and Vlad has a worse year. That's my opinion. I don't need a program to tell me my opinion. If Vlad is healthy, I have said already he would be more valuable.
I agree with you about Vlad being an injury risk - for some reason its just a gut feeling that his knees and/or back will cause him to miss significant time this yr.
At the same time I have no reason to think Arod wont do the same thing he's done every yr for the last 5 yrs or so - based on split stats of course - that is hit about .280-.290 with 35-40 HRs. The Sbs are the real x-factor to me and I expect those to drop below 20 - but thats a hunch more than anything.
I do understand what you are saying about risk tolerance, and everyone has their own and how they factor it in. But even still, value isnt subjective. You can say that obviously Vlad was worth more, but then the question is - yes, but how much more was he worth - specifically? Once you get that number, you can tweak it with your own risk factor. Thats all Im saying.