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rank these setup men in a holds league:

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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:28 am

LBJackal wrote:Replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (obviously). The higher the replacement level, means a fewer amount of adjusted (actual minus replacement) holds available in the positive player pool, means more value for each hold over replacement. They're tougher to get (Usually top holds guys get 30, and top closers get 45) but that doesn't mean holds aren't more valuable. The switch from primary setup man to closer probably lowers a player's actual value in a league that counts holds (depending on how many holds the setup man was getting).


How do you figure? I agree that the replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (because every closer is owned, while not every holder is owned), but you lose me with the next sentence. Wouldnt the fact that there are so many more guys who get holds than saves make saves more scarce than holds, and thus more valuable?
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Postby DEF » Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:37 am

LBJackal wrote:Replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (obviously). The higher the replacement level, means a fewer amount of adjusted (actual minus replacement) holds available in the positive player pool, means more value for each hold over replacement. They're tougher to get (Usually top holds guys get 30, and top closers get 45) but that doesn't mean holds aren't more valuable. The switch from primary setup man to closer probably lowers a player's actual value in a league that counts holds (depending on how many holds the setup man was getting). However in that situation the perceived value goes up because holds are seen as inferior to saves. Same idea with HR and SB kinda. We know that HR are much more valuable in real life so we think in fantasy it should be the same.


Have to respectively disagree on the reasoning for a couple of points here. While the top setup guys do get less holds than the top closers get saves, holds overall are in more abundance than saves. And the player pool from which to get holds is much larger than that for saves. Other than the occasional committee setup or a tunover in the closer role due to injury or ineffectiveness, there's generally just one player from each team that you can count on to get saves. But just about every team will have several guys routinely in position to get holds. Multiple players can get a hold in the same game and can get holds even if the closer (or another setup man) later blows the save, so there are many more options to choose from to get holds than to get saves.

It's off topic a bit, but I also disagree with your home run vs. stolen base premise. While stolen bases are much scarcer, a stolen base only helps in one category. A home run not only contributes in homers, but also add a run, at least one RBI and helps in average (plus other categories if the league has more than the standard 5x5). SBs are tougher to find and thus very valuable, but I have a hard time assigning them more value than a home run that contributes across the board much more.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Apr 04, 2005 5:03 am

Bloody Nipples wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (obviously). The higher the replacement level, means a fewer amount of adjusted (actual minus replacement) holds available in the positive player pool, means more value for each hold over replacement. They're tougher to get (Usually top holds guys get 30, and top closers get 45) but that doesn't mean holds aren't more valuable. The switch from primary setup man to closer probably lowers a player's actual value in a league that counts holds (depending on how many holds the setup man was getting).


How do you figure? I agree that the replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (because every closer is owned, while not every holder is owned), but you lose me with the next sentence. Wouldnt the fact that there are so many more guys who get holds than saves make saves more scarce than holds, and thus more valuable?


The fact that there are more holds available on waivers only means that the replacement level will be higher. That makes players who score significantly higher than the replacement level even more valuable, which is kind of counterintuitive.

But think of it this way: 4 holds are free to get on waivers. That's about the replacement level, give or take a bit (this is an average; there are some people with more, and some with less, but the average replacement player has 4). So take away 4 holds from every single pitcher's total holds, even SP's - everybody. Now add up the remaining adjusted holds (adjusted = total minus replacement). That's how many adjusted holds are available to be had. If a guy like Otsuka has 25 Adj HLD then he has a very big portion of the extra holds. There are tons of adjusted saves out there, so no one closer has a big advantage over many others based on his saves alone.

So by more holds being available on waivers, that INCREASES the value of holds above replacement. In short the way it does it, is it erases the value of the holds that marginal RP's get because they're easily replaced. For an extreme example, imagine that 150 pitchers get 50 saves each. And the 151st closer gets 60 saves. Intuitively we'd think that the 60 save closer doens't have much value because there are 150 pitchers who can get you 50 saves. But that intuition would be wrong. The extra 10 saves the 151st pitcher gets you wins you the category, and nobody can catch you. It's the same idea with holds, but less extreme. Otsuka could easily earn a lot more than Gagne, Lidge, or any closer in 2005.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Apr 04, 2005 5:29 am

DEF wrote:I also disagree with your home run vs. stolen base premise. While stolen bases are much scarcer, a stolen base only helps in one category. A home run not only contributes in homers, but also add a run, at least one RBI and helps in average


You have to compare categories one at a time. HR's are never worth more than SB's, unless you have some really weird scoring categories. Yes a HR guarantees you a R and RBI but you're already taking into account the R and RBI separetely, so you can't count them all twice.

ie: a player with 10 HR, 50 RBI, and 50 R is not more valuable than a hitter with 10 SB, 50 RBI, and 50 R. You're reasoning of "A HR also gives a R and RBI" makes no sense now because R and RBI are accounted for separately and you can't give credit to a hitter twice for the same RBI.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Apr 04, 2005 5:35 am

For an extreme example, imagine that 150 pitchers get 50 saves each. And the 151st closer gets 60 saves. Intuitively we'd think that the 60 save closer doens't have much value because there are 150 pitchers who can get you 50 saves. But that intuition would be wrong. The extra 10 saves the 151st pitcher gets you wins you the category, and nobody can catch you. It's the same idea with holds, but less extreme. Otsuka could easily earn a lot more than Gagne, Lidge, or any closer in 2005.

nailed it. ;-D
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ok getting back on topic..

Postby bluefire7 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 11:54 am

please also add these into consideration. i also booted madson since that seemed the concensus..

a. otsuka
y. brazoban
m. gonzalez

as well as-

s. linebrink
b. donnelly
j. cruz
r. wagner
b. lyon
g. aquino
t. gordon

just like brazoban, please rank lyon as a SETUP man instead of his newfound closer role. please remember, HOLDS is what we are rating here. i also added gordon to the list. doesn't help me since someone else already has him and won't trade him, but just for sense of scale and to help my fellow cafe member :-)


this is my try:

a. otsuka
t. gordon
j. cruz
m. gonzalez
b. donnelly
s. linebrink
y. brazoban
b. lyon
r. wagner
g. aquino
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Apr 04, 2005 11:58 am

Otsuka
Gordon
Donnelly
M. Gonzalez
Linebrick
Brazoban
J. Cruz
R. Wagner
Aquino
Lyon


The last 3 are sort of ehhh.
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Postby KolbSaves » Mon Apr 04, 2005 1:28 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Bloody Nipples wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (obviously). The higher the replacement level, means a fewer amount of adjusted (actual minus replacement) holds available in the positive player pool, means more value for each hold over replacement. They're tougher to get (Usually top holds guys get 30, and top closers get 45) but that doesn't mean holds aren't more valuable. The switch from primary setup man to closer probably lowers a player's actual value in a league that counts holds (depending on how many holds the setup man was getting).


How do you figure? I agree that the replacement level for holds is higher than for saves (because every closer is owned, while not every holder is owned), but you lose me with the next sentence. Wouldnt the fact that there are so many more guys who get holds than saves make saves more scarce than holds, and thus more valuable?


The fact that there are more holds available on waivers only means that the replacement level will be higher. That makes players who score significantly higher than the replacement level even more valuable, which is kind of counterintuitive.

But think of it this way: 4 holds are free to get on waivers. That's about the replacement level, give or take a bit (this is an average; there are some people with more, and some with less, but the average replacement player has 4). So take away 4 holds from every single pitcher's total holds, even SP's - everybody. Now add up the remaining adjusted holds (adjusted = total minus replacement). That's how many adjusted holds are available to be had. If a guy like Otsuka has 25 Adj HLD then he has a very big portion of the extra holds. There are tons of adjusted saves out there, so no one closer has a big advantage over many others based on his saves alone.

So by more holds being available on waivers, that INCREASES the value of holds above replacement. In short the way it does it, is it erases the value of the holds that marginal RP's get because they're easily replaced. For an extreme example, imagine that 150 pitchers get 50 saves each. And the 151st closer gets 60 saves. Intuitively we'd think that the 60 save closer doens't have much value because there are 150 pitchers who can get you 50 saves. But that intuition would be wrong. The extra 10 saves the 151st pitcher gets you wins you the category, and nobody can catch you. It's the same idea with holds, but less extreme. Otsuka could easily earn a lot more than Gagne, Lidge, or any closer in 2005.


I don't think there's quite the drop off in holds you think there is. If anything, after running the top 30 holders and closers through excel and using 30th rank as replacement, closers have a higher drop off outside of the first two holders. If you want I can give you the excel file.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:20 pm

You can't just run the top 30 and say the 31st in SV is the SV replacement, and the 31st in HLD is the HLD replacement level. It doens't work like that. You rank the top X pitchers (X = number opf pitchers per team * number of teams) by overall value and the 15 best pitchers NOT in the top X amount, are the replacement players. SV are almost non-existent in the replacement pool. Holds are definately available in there though. The reason more holds guys aren't in the positive player pool is because generally they aren't good pitchers and have a bad WHIP/ERA/K's. So to get holds from waivers you have to sacrifice other stats and it just isn't worth it, and you'll end up with negative value from that holds guy. Which makes guys like Otsuka invaluable in leagues that count holds.
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Postby KolbSaves » Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:30 pm

Which do you think are more consistant year to year in ratios and k's, holders or closers?
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