Battle of Risks: Pavano vs. Vazquez

[MashinSpuds]

I was curious what people in the Cafe tend to go for more, a solid track record or good pitching teams. Both are young, both can be dominant. Vazquez was great in Montreal, but blew it in New York and is now rebuilding. Pavano had a great year in Florida and stands to do well in New York... maybe. If you had to choose between the two in a draft, which guy would you gamble on?

[AtlDynasty25]

Probably Pavano, but it's very close. Pavano's ERA should rise a little moving to the AL with the DH, but he should win a ton of games with the Yankees. Vazquez should rebound from 2004 with the move back to the NL, but moving to the BOB from Yankee Stadium won't help. Overall, i'll take Pavano.

[TheYanks04]

Vazquez is having a fine Spring...in mid-season form already with his hanging curve.

A guy who was a candidate for the NL Cy Young award vs a guy that has pretty much blown since the AS break last season and if you look at the first half of 04, did a great deal of his damage in April and June vs some crummy teams...let me think...real difficult decision.

[mcqfesijiba]

I think I personally like Vazquez a little better, but a case could be made either way. They've both got good arms and I can see them both having very good seasons.

[agchris02]

In two drafts I took them with consecutive picks, once pavano then vazquez, then vazquez and pavano -- they are RIGHt next to each other on my rankings

in a league that counts wins heavily, pavano gets the edge
leagues that weight Ks more, vazquez

[Pogotheostrich]

I'll take Vaz by a hair. Vaz isn't as bad as last year and should still K a ton of guys. I don't expect Pavano to repeat last year's numbers.

[Secret Avatar]

I'd take Pavano. He had a great year last year and was strong this spring. While I expect his ERA to rise in the AL East, he should get great run support and relief pitching. He's a lock for 15 wins and most likely will finish with 17 or 18. I see a line like 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17 W, 140 K. There's some upside here too. He steadily improved his BB and HR rates over the past few years, and there's no reason to think he can't continue to improve. This spring, he seems to be throwing harder and with more Ks. Upside: 3.5 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 19 W, 150 K.

Vaz' collapse in the second half last year is still scary (I'm a Yankee fan and I saw the whole thing). I still haven't heard any explanation for it either. He should do better back in the NL, though, but until he shows he can go a FULL season again, he's in my "risky" category.

[Strasil42]

Vazquez is having a fine Spring...in mid-season form already with his hanging curve.

.

didnt he just give up 9 earned runs to the white sox yesterday>?

[TheYanks04]

Yes, like I said...mid-season form.

[Strasil42]

Yes, like I said...mid-season form.

haha