I'd take Pavano. He had a great year last year and was strong this spring. While I expect his ERA to rise in the AL East, he should get great run support and relief pitching. He's a lock for 15 wins and most likely will finish with 17 or 18. I see a line like 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17 W, 140 K. There's some upside here too. He steadily improved his BB and HR rates over the past few years, and there's no reason to think he can't continue to improve. This spring, he seems to be throwing harder and with more Ks. Upside: 3.5 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 19 W, 150 K.
Vaz' collapse in the second half last year is still scary (I'm a Yankee fan and I saw the whole thing). I still haven't heard any explanation for it either. He should do better back in the NL, though, but until he shows he can go a FULL season again, he's in my "risky" category.
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