Hhhmmm, nice list of pitchers to rank from.
I have them all lower 1st tier to lower 2nd and mid-3rd(3rd thinking they could very easily surpass and put up much better numbers) tier arms.
#1 Zito. Durability is the biggest reason. Past years of success, good K upside, and still in a pitchers park. Lower 1st tier.
#2. A.J. Burnett. Should be fully recovered and good to go. High 2nd tier.
#3. Javier Vazquez. I doubt I'll get much support with him, but I see him as a sleeper fringe top 10 SP this year. He is a NL pitcher through and through. Pitching half his home games in the home away from home field hitters park (Puerto Rico was it?), he still had great numbers in 2003. Probably my best bet for comeback player of the year award. High 2nd tier.
#4. R. Harden. Lots of upside with great K potential. As erratic as most pitchers are year to year he needs to prove he is the real deal for more than 1 season before I bump him higher. Mid-Low 2nd tier.
#5. Moose. Age, wear, and tear are taking their toll and catching up to him. He still has it in him to pitch a game with great stuff here and there. The years of 200+ INN, 190-210K's, 15+ W's, and ERA around 4.00 or lower are long gone. I'm thinking more like 11-15 W's, 180 INN, 165-180K's, and an ERA around 4.10 or slightly higher. He hasnt looked good at all this spring either, which without putting too much emphasize on spring stats, is another bad sign. Low 2nd to high 3rd tier pitcher.
#6. Smoltz. I doubt his durability to remain effective as a starter all year. Hasnt avoided the DL to well as the closer, and well............ he is much closer to 40 than 30 years old. Mid 3rd tier pitcher.
Carpenter I never really followed, saw him pitch, or read into him too much before last year. I'm skeptical of last year's numbers being an anomaly season, ala Loaiza, based on 6 prior years of MLB service with never befor then having had an ERA under .400. Not being very well informed of him I'll refrain from ranking. He is just a guy I have avoided in my drafts. So with no 'quote me on it' or #ranking, my gut instinct tells me mid - low 3rd tier performance from him this year.
"Son we would like to keep you around here but were trying to win a pennant this year."