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Beurhle and Garcia

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 31, 2005 3:01 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:What am I missing? Why would anyone knowingly put in a pitcher for 115 inning of 5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP - let alone draft a SP in the 12-14th rds that promised to put those kind of numbers up?

Im sorry this got off on a MR strategy tangent - that never was my intention - just using an example.


If you think that's how Buehrle will pitch at home, don't pitch him at home. His overall numbers help a LOT more than a couple crappy MR's combined.

He'll put up 16 W and a 3.70 ERA over the course of the season. I don't care if it's a 5.00 ERA in day games, 7.00 ERA on Sundays, if it's 3.70 overall that's what matters. If you want to pick and choose his starts and think that'll make him more valuable, then do that.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:34 am

LBJackal wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:What am I missing? Why would anyone knowingly put in a pitcher for 115 inning of 5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP - let alone draft a SP in the 12-14th rds that promised to put those kind of numbers up?

Im sorry this got off on a MR strategy tangent - that never was my intention - just using an example.


If you think that's how Buehrle will pitch at home, don't pitch him at home. His overall numbers help a LOT more than a couple crappy MR's combined.

He'll put up 16 W and a 3.70 ERA over the course of the season. I don't care if it's a 5.00 ERA in day games, 7.00 ERA on Sundays, if it's 3.70 overall that's what matters. If you want to pick and choose his starts and think that'll make him more valuable, then do that.


OK - but you are still on MR strategy bashing - leave that out of this argument - its not relevant anymore.

You still havent answered my question and I want feedback from others on this:

Why would anyone knowingly draft and play a SP who in all likelyhood will have an ERA of 5 and a WHIP around 1.4 for at least half his innings pitched?

This isnt about Sundays or day games. This is about every time they pitch at home. You cant just shrug it off.
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Re: Beurhle and Garcia

Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:40 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I wont draft Francis, but that thread brought up an interesting point. Why are people so afraid to pick up a COL or TEX pitcher - even ARI too, all for the same reason that they play in an extreme hitters park, yet Beuhrle and Garcia are usually going in the 12-14 range. Im not going to argue they arent very good SPs - but check out their home/road splits.

Beurhle was lights out, but only on the road:

Home - 5.02 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Away - 2.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Garcia was terrible at Comiskey:

5.37 ERA, 1.40 WHIP - 3 of his 13 Wins there.

Now, Im sure you smart guys can see this coming, but which would you rather have:

A 12-14th rd SP:
115IP, 7W, 75K, 2.75 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
plus
115IP, 8W, 75K, 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

or

a +20th rd (or WW) RP:
85IP, 7W, 85K, 2.14 ERA, 1.04 WHIP (Scot Linebrink)

Why are Garcia and Beurhle ranked so much higher?
Would you draft either of those guys if they were traded to COL?

I think you are forgetting the part where people don't have to start pitchers every time they play. People with Buerhle are smart, start him on the road for the great numbers, and dont play him when he pitches at home. Its that simple. You can still play him at home too, depending on the matchup.
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Re: Beurhle and Garcia

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:44 am

CubsFan7724 wrote:I think you are forgetting the part where people don't have to start pitchers every time they play. People with Buerhle are smart, start him on the road for the great numbers, and dont play him when he pitches at home. Its that simple. You can still play him at home too, during the matchup.


OK - but now you are talking about drafting 115 IP of great pitching in the 12-14th when you can get similar %s across the board for the same number of IP much later in the draft.
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Re: Beurhle and Garcia

Postby slomo007 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:47 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:I think you are forgetting the part where people don't have to start pitchers every time they play. People with Buerhle are smart, start him on the road for the great numbers, and dont play him when he pitches at home. Its that simple. You can still play him at home too, during the matchup.


OK - but now you are talking about drafting 115 IP of great pitching in the 12-14th when you can get similar %s across the board for the same number of IP much later in the draft.


Here's my philosophy....don't draft pitchers with such poor splits. :-?

The only pitcher that I'm taking a chance on like that would be Randy Wolf, and even he's only my 5th or 6th starter, depending on how Bedard does.
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Re: Beurhle and Garcia

Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:50 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:I think you are forgetting the part where people don't have to start pitchers every time they play. People with Buerhle are smart, start him on the road for the great numbers, and dont play him when he pitches at home. Its that simple. You can still play him at home too, during the matchup.


OK - but now you are talking about drafting 115 IP of great pitching in the 12-14th when you can get similar %s across the board for the same number of IP much later in the draft.

People are catching on to MR. You can't get them much later anymore. Thanks the Lidge and Krod dominance last year, guys like Otsuka, Gordon, Rincon and such are now going in the 15th round or so, maybe later. So is it really that much later? Buerhle in the 12-14th is valuable, even if you do spot start him. Hes good on the road. You cant say that for many of the Colorado and Texas pitchers, who are just plain bad in general. I like MR, I try to get one in all my 5x5, but I still see Buerhle as helpful to any team when used correctly.
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Postby chaos » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:42 pm

about buehrle... is anyone concerned about the high number of innings he's thrown in the past few years (an average of 234 per year for the past 4 years)? i mean, look what happened to colon and vazquez last year... anyways, i dont trust beurhle that much at all.. anytime he gets an era under 4, it's cos of his good luck...
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 31, 2005 5:53 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:What am I missing? Why would anyone knowingly put in a pitcher for 115 inning of 5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP - let alone draft a SP in the 12-14th rds that promised to put those kind of numbers up?

Im sorry this got off on a MR strategy tangent - that never was my intention - just using an example.


If you think that's how Buehrle will pitch at home, don't pitch him at home. His overall numbers help a LOT more than a couple crappy MR's combined.

He'll put up 16 W and a 3.70 ERA over the course of the season. I don't care if it's a 5.00 ERA in day games, 7.00 ERA on Sundays, if it's 3.70 overall that's what matters. If you want to pick and choose his starts and think that'll make him more valuable, then do that.


OK - but you are still on MR strategy bashing - leave that out of this argument - its not relevant anymore.

You still havent answered my question and I want feedback from others on this:

Why would anyone knowingly draft and play a SP who in all likelyhood will have an ERA of 5 and a WHIP around 1.4 for at least half his innings pitched?

This isnt about Sundays or day games. This is about every time they pitch at home. You cant just shrug it off.


Because he WON'T have an ERA of 5 at home. He did that for ONE season. In 2003 his ERA was a lot better at home (3.67 vs 4.62). A full run lower. In 2002 his ERA was also a fair bit lower than his road ERA (3.34 to 3.86). You act like we KNOW he'll be so much better on the road. We don't know that. You can start him only on the road if you want but with a pitcher that good I'll take as many innings as I can get unless I have a real reason NOT to start him, such as against the Yankees at home maybe.
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