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Beurhle and Garcia

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 31, 2005 1:31 am

I wont draft Francis, but that thread brought up an interesting point. Why are people so afraid to pick up a COL or TEX pitcher - even ARI too, all for the same reason that they play in an extreme hitters park, yet Beuhrle and Garcia are usually going in the 12-14 range. Im not going to argue they arent very good SPs - but check out their home/road splits.

Beurhle was lights out, but only on the road:

Home - 5.02 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Away - 2.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Garcia was terrible at Comiskey:

5.37 ERA, 1.40 WHIP - 3 of his 13 Wins there.

Now, Im sure you smart guys can see this coming, but which would you rather have:

A 12-14th rd SP:
115IP, 7W, 75K, 2.75 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
plus
115IP, 8W, 75K, 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

or

a +20th rd (or WW) RP:
85IP, 7W, 85K, 2.14 ERA, 1.04 WHIP (Scot Linebrink)

Why are Garcia and Beurhle ranked so much higher?
Would you draft either of those guys if they were traded to COL?
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Postby Bukoski77 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 1:40 am

IMHO Garcia is due for a mediocre year.

To answer your question, Those guys get drafted because they have a history of success, or have had a very good season or two.

I think both of them would still get drafted if traded to Texas or Colorado, just a good bit later in the draft.

Chan-Ho Park, was still drafted in virtually every league before the 2002 season after his great 2001 season with the Dodgers.

Kenny Rogers 'I forgot I'm old and years past my prime' anomaly season last year aside, neither of those teams have SP capable of putting up the numbers Buehler and Garcia can.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 31, 2005 1:44 am

RP's don't get wins, and they take up twice as many roster spots to get the same amount of innings. It's a good idea to go with 4 SP's and 4 RP's in a 1250 IP limit league, but you have to have some SP's.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 1:51 am

LBJ makes a good point about the IP total and one I've been making for a while. While most leagues are 1250 leagues, us owners who play in leagues with higher IP limits (1500+) shouldn't even waste a roster spot on MRs, unless they are truly in the top tier (Gordon, Otsuka, etc).

Your point is taken though CBM, and I'll remember that if I play in a 1250 IP limit league.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 31, 2005 1:56 am

LBJackal wrote:RP's don't get wins, and they take up twice as many roster spots to get the same amount of innings. It's a good idea to go with 4 SP's and 4 RP's in a 1250 IP limit league, but you have to have some SP's.


So you are saying you would rather have 115 IP of 5 ERA, 1.4 WHIP than give up a roster spot?

RPs do get wins, usually the elite setup men have W/IP ratio's much higher than the majority of SPs.
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Postby agchris02 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:12 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
LBJackal wrote:RP's don't get wins, and they take up twice as many roster spots to get the same amount of innings. It's a good idea to go with 4 SP's and 4 RP's in a 1250 IP limit league, but you have to have some SP's.


So you are saying you would rather have 115 IP of 5 ERA, 1.4 WHIP than give up a roster spot?

RPs do get wins, usually the elite setup men have W/IP ratio's much higher than the majority of SPs.


exactly, Id much rather have t gordon, even in a 1500 inning league, than someone like mike maroth, ted lilly, or park -- he'll at least help you in cats

and in DAILY transaction leagues, MR's can provide great inning filler if you have 2 or 3 of them
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:14 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
LBJackal wrote:RP's don't get wins, and they take up twice as many roster spots to get the same amount of innings. It's a good idea to go with 4 SP's and 4 RP's in a 1250 IP limit league, but you have to have some SP's.


So you are saying you would rather have 115 IP of 5 ERA, 1.4 WHIP than give up a roster spot?

RPs do get wins, usually the elite setup men have W/IP ratio's much higher than the majority of SPs.


Yes, I'd rather have Buehrle than a 2 MRs if that's what you're asking.

For the second part, the problem is that those elite RP's who have high win totals are unkown until they actually get the wins. Last year it was Todd Jones, Juan Rincon, Ryan Madson, guys like that. Nobody would have drafted them before the season started because they'd get vulture wins. And the good MR's change from year to year. 2002 it was Romero. He won me my league with his W. Then the next season he has an ERA of 5. 2003 Hasegawa, Marte, Mantei, and Valverde were great MR's. 2004 they stank. They're more unpredictable than SP's and closers because generally they aren't that good. There is definately value to be had in adding one or two MR's to your roster (If you noticed I have Mike Gonzalez and Scott Linebrink in the Cafe Challenge) but you need SP's too. Going with lots of MR's is risky because you could shoot yourself in the foot in W and not have enough IP to get many points in K's. And don't forget about the JC Romero, Hasegawa, Marte, Rhodes guys who are sure-thing top of the line MR's one year and busts with 5+ ERA's the next year.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:28 am

I agree with CBM's original point, basically I made the same point in another thread. If you're only going to start a pitcher half his starts, it's not worth it.

I think in 2003, Mantei was closing, LBJ.
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Postby asumikey222 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:33 am

LBJackal wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
LBJackal wrote:RP's don't get wins, and they take up twice as many roster spots to get the same amount of innings. It's a good idea to go with 4 SP's and 4 RP's in a 1250 IP limit league, but you have to have some SP's.


So you are saying you would rather have 115 IP of 5 ERA, 1.4 WHIP than give up a roster spot?

RPs do get wins, usually the elite setup men have W/IP ratio's much higher than the majority of SPs.


Yes, I'd rather have Buehrle than a 2 MRs if that's what you're asking.

For the second part, the problem is that those elite RP's who have high win totals are unkown until they actually get the wins. Last year it was Todd Jones, Juan Rincon, Ryan Madson, guys like that. Nobody would have drafted them before the season started because they'd get vulture wins. And the good MR's change from year to year. 2002 it was Romero. He won me my league with his W. Then the next season he has an ERA of 5. 2003 Hasegawa, Marte, Mantei, and Valverde were great MR's. 2004 they stank. They're more unpredictable than SP's and closers because generally they aren't that good. There is definately value to be had in adding one or two MR's to your roster (If you noticed I have Mike Gonzalez and Scott Linebrink in the Cafe Challenge) but you need SP's too. Going with lots of MR's is risky because you could shoot yourself in the foot in W and not have enough IP to get many points in K's. And don't forget about the JC Romero, Hasegawa, Marte, Rhodes guys who are sure-thing top of the line MR's one year and busts with 5+ ERA's the next year.


I think this is a great point. Romero was a GOD that year I remember. To me the 2 MR method is overthinking it; I won't say it's worst than drafting whatever SP goes around where you draft the MRs, but I don't think it's clearly better either and since I'm more of a traditional player who just tries to make solid picks rather than outthink the system (not that there's anything wrong with that), I will go for a decent SP any day as a matter of personal preference.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:51 am

What am I missing? Why would anyone knowingly put in a pitcher for 115 inning of 5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP - let alone draft a SP in the 12-14th rds that promised to put those kind of numbers up?

Im sorry this got off on a MR strategy tangent - that never was my intention - just using an example.
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