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How many of you believe in Jeff Francis?

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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Mar 31, 2005 4:08 pm

red wrote:At Colorado Springs last year he had a 2.85 ERA, 49K in 41 IP, and only 7BB


thats a little misleading. i beleive he only made two starts in colorado springs. if i recall correctly he gave up four runs in seven innings in the first start and i think (but dont quote me on it) six earned in three innings in his second start. of course, colorado springs is about 1,000 feet higher than coors field and two games isnt really enough fairly judge. if someone has the actual splits i wouldnt mind seeing them but i am pretty sure he wasnt that great when actually pitching in colorado springs.
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Postby red » Thu Mar 31, 2005 4:14 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
red wrote:At Colorado Springs last year he had a 2.85 ERA, 49K in 41 IP, and only 7BB


thats a little misleading. i beleive he only made two starts in colorado springs. if i recall correctly he gave up four runs in seven innings in the first start and i think (but dont quote me on it) six earned in three innings in his second start. of course, colorado springs is about 1,000 feet higher than coors field and two games isnt really enough fairly judge. if someone has the actual splits i wouldnt mind seeing them but i am pretty sure he wasnt that great when actually pitching in colorado springs.


Seven starts.
How could a guy get 41 IP in 2 starts?
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Postby nuggets » Thu Mar 31, 2005 4:16 pm

CrimeDog wrote:I'm in a very deep mixed league, 33 players and 14 teams, and I drafted him. Call me crazy, but I think with the talent he's got he can overcome the Coors factor and be a solid # 3 fantasy starter.


With that league size I'd take him too.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Mar 31, 2005 4:18 pm

i didnt say two starts FOR colorado springs. i said two starts IN colorado springs. most of his AAA starts were roadies.
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Postby nuggets » Thu Mar 31, 2005 4:26 pm

thehat wrote:AAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!


He pitches in the worst pitcher park in the history of baseball, and he's on a team that is absolutely freakin' horrible.

Look, Randy Johnson is a 3.86 lifetime ERA in this park. That's Randy Johnson!

If Francis somehow overcomes the elements and does a great job, what are you gonna get from him? Maybe ten wins and a high 4 ERA, and that's a generous estimate. Plus, the Rockies are sure to limit his IP to some extent, so you probably won't see him go more than 150-175 which means you get about 130 K's...maybe.

Leave him and all Rockies pitcher alone. It never ceases to amaze me that there are still some folks in the fantasy world that want to try and beat the undeniable odds by stabbing at a Colorado pitcher every year.


But that's why they play the game... Go Bucknell, Wisonsin-Milwauke and Vermont. It's the people who take the risks that end up on top. If I were to ask you which is most likely- Francis deserving a roster spot on a 14 team, 33 player league OR Bucknell beating Kansas which would you have chosen? I'd have gone with Francis.
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Postby matdemos » Thu Mar 31, 2005 6:21 pm

Would you roster this pitcher?

9 wins, 162.1 IP, 117 K, 3.66 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

In a deep NL-only, I probably would. "This pitcher" is Joe Kennedy of the Rox in '04. Kennedy was once a hyped prospect like Francis, but has since lost velocity and the reputation. Francis throws more K's and fewer BB's than Kennedy (even in the majors). If you are still unconvinced, Kennedy threw 82.2 IP at a 3.60 ERA at Coors. Francis is a rookie, and being ownable in all but the deepest of mixed leagues is crazy to ask of any rookie pitcher. Francis is worth an endgame pick in NL-only, though, because he really is the most talented pitcher the Rox have had in....probably ever.
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Postby hybrid » Thu Mar 31, 2005 6:33 pm

Kennedy just got real lucky last year, look at his other numbers besides his ERA. A 1.42 WHIP is not good at all, that is more indicative as to what you can expect from him ... I doubt his era will stay at 3.66 when his WHIP is that high.
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Postby matdemos » Thu Mar 31, 2005 7:31 pm

ya, you are right, his peripherals were pretty bad: 3.7 BB/9 and .94 HR/9 (which is actually good in Coors). i just interpret the data differently. my reading is that if a generally mediocre pitcher can manage a 3.60 ERA at Coors, hiding his high walk rate, couldn't an above-average pitcher with better K/9 and BB/9 achieve the same level? i'm not saying Joe Kennedy will be that good this year, just that Francis has the tools to really earn those kind of numbers (high 3's ERA and a 1.3 WHIP)
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Postby wrveres » Thu Mar 31, 2005 7:41 pm

Are you guys still discussing this?

Its Coors people.
What is sooo hard to understand\ You would be much better off with any of those pitchers, pitching for your opponent.

If you are going to pick up Francis and platoon him for half his starts, what is the difference between that and any solid middle reliever you can get off the wire? Nothing!
Actually there is probably less risk in going with the MR.
How many wins do you think Francis is going to get you on 'the road'? Colorado is horrible away from Coors.

Take the advice from a few vetrans here, don't drink the koolaid. They are not telling you this just to be a pain in the ass. They are trying to help. Thats all.
25                "Love the Padres"
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Postby bleach168 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 7:53 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:There has NEVER been a Rox SP worthy of an active roster spot in a 12 team mixed league that I am aware of. Maybe someone can find/recall one, but I can't think of one. Why would this guy be the exception?

Hey, there have barely been a few clsoers worthy of a roster spot let alone a SP that played for the Rox.


You are kinda, sorta right. For a short period of time Shawn Chacon was the talk of the town here at the Cafe. I'm sad to say quite a few of our members fell for Chacon's trickery.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=chacon
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