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Manny Ramirez

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:35 pm

Has anyone else noticed that his OBP has declined for a couple of years now?

2002 .450
2003 .427
2004 .397

Is this a sign of things to come? Will we see another decline this year? Is there something I'm missing since I'm so, so tired?[/list]
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:37 pm

look at his 1st half/ 2nd half splits too... I think that there is a pretty clear 'decline' still a great hitter but needs to work out more to halt the decline. I've not read about his conditioning or lack thereof so I passed on him as he still went in the first round of my drafts and I went after 'ascenders' rather than 'decliners'. He WAS awesome during the first half last year. If you do get him, I'd definitely consider trying to play him for the first half and deal him after last year....
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:46 pm

But I thought that the Red Sox were a Moneyball team. ;-7 Wait until Billy gets Theo on the phone. :-o :-D
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:52 pm

Theo probably made them put "Theo is not responsible for Manny's contract" in HIS contract!!! :-D
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:57 pm

Wasn't he hurt for part of the year last year? Or am I thinking of something else. :-? If not, that is a very disturbing trend for the Sox more than fantasy for the foreseeable future since his R, RBI, and HR have remained largely constant. I realize that it's a sign of a declining ball player, but I just don't think the fantasy implications are enough to warrant panic at this point. Maybe that's just me. :-?

Also in 2002 he had close to 80 fewer AB than he did in the other two, so that could have been a factor as well. If you throw out that year, the last five have been roughly on par with his career numbers, with maybe a slight decline due to the inevitableness of aging. I'm probably way out in left field on this one, but that's my take. I guess we'll know for sure (or at least more than now) after this year.
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:58 pm

Manny played 152 games last season and 154 the season before.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Mar 30, 2005 6:02 pm

Lofunzo wrote:Manny played 152 games last season and 154 the season before.


I know that, but he was also playing hurt I thought for at least part of the year. And I was referring to 2002 when he played only 120. I realize 120 is a pretty good sample size, but I think that has to be taken into account as well. I'm not trying to say Manny is on an uptick, or that this is somehow good news, just that for '05 it's not much of a fantasy story unless your league counts OBP, which very few actually do, that's all. Well, and because I'm in a mood to be argumentative for some reason. :-D
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Wed Mar 30, 2005 6:04 pm

he is drawing walks at about the same rate. the decrease in obp is primarily due to the decrease in batting average, which dropped from an excellent .349 to .325 to .308.

so i guess the question is: will he get that ba back up to .320+?
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Mar 30, 2005 6:07 pm

he had some minor twingy things, I can't remember which part, perhaps ankle or something like that but still played through quite a bit of it. 'Gamers' are great...until you can't tell if they are 100% or not....

.344 1st half vs .264 second half. OPS dropped from 1.119 to .872 at the same time. I had him last year and it was REALLY hard for me to sit him as he'd still hit HR, etc. occasionally that would lead you to think 'he's back' and he never quite got there....
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Postby wrveres » Wed Mar 30, 2005 6:15 pm

To be fair he really hasn't fallen that bad.

OBP
'01 Pre All Star .432
'01 Pst All-Star .360

'02 Pre All Star .464
'02 Pst All-Star .441

'03 Pre All Star .413
'03 Pst All-Star .448

'04 Pre All Star .437
'04 Pst All-Star .345

Just his poor 2nd half last year tend to throw it out of persective.

his OPS numbers certainly don't show an overall decline, just a poor 2Nd half.

'01 Pre All Star 1.082
'01 Pst All-Star .902

'02 Pre All Star 1.028
'02 Pst All-Star 1.134

'03 Pre All Star .984
'03 Pst All-Star 1.060

'04 Pre All Star 1.119
'04 Pst All-Star .872
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