not sure if fatigue was the problem. lots of innings but his pitch counts were never excessive. he is a very efficient pitcher.
i didnt look it up but he said he has always had poor spring numbers so not sure that they really mean anything. the last few outings have been solid. most importantly his mechanics look good and he has shown no signs of injury (which it has never been shown that he had one to begin with). he also says his changeup has looked better than it ever has. i expect him to have a pretty good season.
I think Mulder will have a great 2nd half, and here's my wild conjecture:
Mulder had a confidence problem. Fine. What pitcher can't fix his confidence when his offense averages 395.6 runs per inning? Just look at what the offense did for Suppan last year. He's an average pitcher at best, but he gets a little confidence and a good offense, and all of the sudden he's a decent pitcher.
Mulder will be sketchy for the first half, but once he finds that he can miss his pitch and still win, he will turn it around, gain his confidence, and be awesome in the 2nd half - just in time to lead us into the playoffs.
In short, if he starts off slowly, I would suggest trading for him because I don't see him continuing that trend all year.
Examine Mulder's peripheral numbers and you'll see a steady downward trend over the past few years. I agree that that his 2nd half results last year were likely the result of an injury, but his trend line is steadily on the downslope.
His win totals will be fine with the St. Louis offense backing him, but watch for his ERA and WHIP to rise compared to previous years.
weitliz wrote:Examine Mulder's peripheral numbers and you'll see a steady downward trend over the past few years. I agree that that his 2nd half results last year were likely the result of an injury, but his trend line is steadily on the downslope.
His win totals will be fine with the St. Louis offense backing him, but watch for his ERA and WHIP to rise compared to previous years.
These are very valid points. If he starts to slip under 6k's per 9 he's not as valuable of a fantasy commodity. In addition we'll see how the defense responds to him being an extreme groundball pitcher.
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weitliz wrote:Examine Mulder's peripheral numbers and you'll see a steady downward trend over the past few years. I agree that that his 2nd half results last year were likely the result of an injury, but his trend line is steadily on the downslope.
i dont exactly agree with you there. his peripherals from 2001-2003 seem fairly steady to me. 2004 was noticeably different though, particulary in regard to his bb/9 and k/9. obviously if you include 2004 the trendline will be down, but just looking at 2001-03 it seems like it would be a pretty flat line.
Yeah it was pretty much just last year that he struggled. 2003 his K rate dropped but that's just maturation; not trying to K everybody, instead focusing on not walking anybody and not allowing HR's. That's the same way Maddux had success in Atlanta. Hudson did the samae thing. People see a drop in K rate and assume he's getting worse but you also have to look at BB and HR. Hudson has improved his BB/9 and HR/9 every single season he's been in the majors which is why he's still a great pitcher even though he K's less. Zito bumped up his K's last year but allowed a ton of HR's which is why his ERA was so high. So with Mulder, it's just a matter of getting back into the groove he was in for 3 years from 2001-2003. Moving to the NL, and into a great pitcher's park can only help him do that. The run support won't hurt either.
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by j_d_mcnugent » Wed Mar 30, 2005 11:35 am 
