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Kearns Projections

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Kearns Projections

Postby klvrdude » Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:26 pm

I've heard predictions for this kid all over the place from

55/17/65 .270

to

100/30/100 .300

Personally I'm going to say he stays 'relatively' healthy and puts up 70/25/90 .290. I see hitting in the cleanup spot for the Reds to have a lot of RBI chances, but no one 5-8th really knocking him home with any consistancy.
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Postby donny23 » Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:39 pm

You see projections all over because of the health issues. It's hard to predict how many at bats he'll get. I think he'll be a stud if he gets 500+ at bats, but even if he does get those at bats, is he a sure-fire bet for great numbers? He hasn't proven himself on the MLB level een when he has been healthy (few and far between).
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Postby jskidder » Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:40 pm

IF he plays 150+ games i would say 95/35/125/.290, but that is a huge IF. i don't think anyone doubts his ability if he stays on the field, but that is a huge risk. with his upside i'd say getting him in the 13th or later would be a nice place to take him, maybe a bit higher in a keeper league by a round or 2.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:48 pm

donny, in half a season of being healthy, he led the league in RBI, so he sort of has proven he can mash.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:51 pm

It's hard to project for Kearns because he's been more injury prone than the guy at the circus who gets shot out of a cannon. While he could be a stud IF he can stay healthy, that's one of the biggest "ifs" in fantasy. Personally, I think he's more likely to go 55/17/65/270 in reduced at-bats than 100/30/100/300 over a full healthy season.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:56 pm

Pretty much what everyone has said, if he is healthy I see him having a big year ... of course thereis a good chance he wont. He's basically you risk vs. reward player, except you can get him real cheap now.
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Postby donny23 » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:13 pm

He also hit .264 in in one half season and .230 last year over 1/3 of the season.

brandnew wrote:donny, in half a season of being healthy, he led the league in RBI, so he sort of has proven he can mash.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:28 pm

donny23 wrote:He also hit .264 in in one half season and .230 last year over 1/3 of the season.


He played hurt and that's why his avg. dropped tp .264, look at his first 2 months when he was healthy. He was hitting .295 - 31 - 13 - 46 before his injury caused him to slump.

Also not sure why you bring up last years stats, cause he really wasn't healthy all year and if he was he was rusty from not playing.
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Postby donny23 » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:30 pm

Hybrid, but that's exactly the point. Even if "healthy" he might not be fully healthy. Who the heck knows what to expect with him. His upside is unreal. We all know his downside.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:39 pm

Yep, which is exactly why projecting for him is so hard and you always get people with different projections.

Anyways the best thing to do for him is say he will get 350-400 AB's, take him at the end of the draft and hope he is healthy. Oh yeah, and then pick up Pena of course ;-)
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