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Postby donny23 » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:08 pm

wrveres - Well, of course all the Mets fans you meet are knowledgable. To have the idiot bandwagon fans on their side, they'd actually have to win some :-D All joking aside though, NY fans on both side of the fence (let's leave the bandwagoners out of this because they are by the definition of the word, not yankee fans) are incredibly knowledgable fans. Boston fans are also. All 3 sets of fans are extremely emotinal and that can sometimes cloud their judgement, but it's only because they have extreme passion for both the sport and their team.
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Postby donny23 » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:09 pm

Ditto :-D

Amazinz wrote:I'll take great pleasure in reminding you if you forget. ;-)
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:19 pm

LBJackal wrote:Yeah Heath Bell is somebody I don't hear anything about but he looks awefully good. I had him last year in a deep league that counts holds. Nothing special fantasy wise but he looks to be one of their top relievers. Probably their best one after Looper. The rotation is shaky though. Glavine doesn't have it anymore and is a good #3 but not much more (meaning 3rd best pitcher, I don't know how they're setting the rotation). Pedro is a great guy to have as an ace, and Benson is a decent #2. But after that, Zam and Ishii don't bring much to the table. Having three capable pitchers like taht is OK for the playoffs but they have to get there first. At this point, I like the Braves' chances better.


Orber Moreno has great stuff - his problem has been injuries. He looks healthy now, though, and helps out the bullpen depth a good bit.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:56 pm

Sorry to bring this post back from the dead but I came across an appropriate piece by Baseball Prospectus via a post on NYFansites.com. My opinion that the Braves will be the 4th best team in the NL East is generally mocked and blown off as a severe case of "homer-ism". I just wanted to point out that Baseball Prospectus has come to the same conclusion. That doesn't make it the right one but it sure makes me feel "less crazy".

Code: Select all
Projected standings:

             Record     RS    RA
Mets         91-71     761   678
Phillies     88-74     835   792
Marlins      85-77     764   703
Braves       83-79     771   725
Nationals    66-96     651   761


I've been tooting the Mets' horn all winter long, so it will come as no surprise that I have them emerging from the pack. The additions of Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez are worth 10-12 wins to the team by themselves. Add in a full season of David Wright and any kind of bounceback from Mike Piazza, and the Mets will have a superstar core unrivaled in the division.

That's not all. As I've written, I like the chance that Kazuo Matsui will play closer to his Japanese League level in his second season Stateside. He was getting it together last summer before back problems effectively ended his season in early August. I'm less optimistic about Jose Reyes's chance to be a good top-of-the-order hitter, although that has more to do with his being rushed than his ability.

The biggest questions being raised about the Mets concern their bullpen, largely because other than Braden Looper the Mets don't have name brand relief. What they do have is talent; no-names such as Heath Bell and Bartolome Fortunato are the kinds of minor-league veterans who can be to the Mets what guys like Brendan Donnelly and Ben Weber have been to the Angels.

I see a lot of parallels between Willie Randolph and the Angels' Mike Scioscia. Both were considered heady, winning players in their day, and they shared some similarities as hitters. (The comp doesn't work visually, but isn't it about time we were able to compare the stocky white guy with the skinny black one?) Scioscia has shown a willingness to assign roles based on performance, not pedigree, and Randolph will have the opportunity to do so. Scioscia has been big on aggressive baserunning, applying the concept in a way that adds to the Angels' offense. Randolph has said he wants the Mets to be that kind of team.

The Mets will see a big change in their runs scored and runs allowed this season, enough to make them contenders and, in my mind, division champs.


You can read the whole article here if you have a BP account.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:08 am

Not to toot my own horn, but here's what I predicted back on Feb 21st:

Mets 91-71
Marlins 89-73
Phillies 85-77
Braves 83-79
Nationals 77-85


So if BP doesn't do it for you, how about my own projections? I was predicting the Cubs to be the NL's rep in the World Series. But given the health issues of Mark Prior, I'll take the Mets.

All right. So I just wanted to toot my own horn. So sue me.
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:11 am

I'm impressed. ;-D
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Postby RynMan » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:26 am

Amazinz wrote:Sorry to bring this post back from the dead but I came across an appropriate piece by Baseball Prospectus via a post on NYFansites.com. My opinion that the Braves will be the 4th best team in the NL East is generally mocked and blown off as a severe case of "homer-ism". I just wanted to point out that Baseball Prospectus has come to the same conclusion. That doesn't make it the right one but it sure makes me feel "less crazy".

Code: Select all
Projected standings:

             Record     RS    RA
Mets         91-71     761   678
Phillies     88-74     835   792
Marlins      85-77     764   703
Braves       83-79     771   725
Nationals    66-96     651   761



This is an article by Joe Sheehan, and are only his personal predictions. Baseball Prospectus used PECOTA to project their NL EAST Standings, and here's what they got:

Code: Select all
            W    L    PCT    RS    RA
Phillies   90   72   .554   833   744
Braves     82   80   .506   758   749
Marlins    81   81   .502   724   720
Mets       81   81   .497   736   741
Nationals  74   88   .459   685   749
Image
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:32 am

RynMan wrote:
Amazinz wrote:Sorry to bring this post back from the dead but I came across an appropriate piece by Baseball Prospectus via a post on NYFansites.com. My opinion that the Braves will be the 4th best team in the NL East is generally mocked and blown off as a severe case of "homer-ism". I just wanted to point out that Baseball Prospectus has come to the same conclusion. That doesn't make it the right one but it sure makes me feel "less crazy".

Code: Select all
Projected standings:

             Record     RS    RA
Mets         91-71     761   678
Phillies     88-74     835   792
Marlins      85-77     764   703
Braves       83-79     771   725
Nationals    66-96     651   761



This is an article by Joe Sheehan, and are only his personal predictions. Baseball Prospectus used PECOTA to project their NL EAST Standings, and here's what they got:

Code: Select all
            W    L    PCT    RS    RA
Phillies   90   72   .554   833   744
Braves     82   80   .506   758   749
Marlins    81   81   .502   724   720
Mets       81   81   .497   736   741
Nationals  74   88   .459   685   749

That's correct. PECOTA came up with a different result but PECOTA is as much an "opinion" as the results Sheehan came up with. So your point is? My point wasn't to prove anything. Sheehan is a respected author and his opinion carries more weight than mine so I just wanted to show that maybe I'm not (as well as Absolutely Adequate) as crazy as I appear.
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Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
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Postby donny23 » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:32 am

Thanks for bringing him back down to earth to the realization that this is just blind homerism ;-D

RynMan wrote:
Amazinz wrote:Sorry to bring this post back from the dead but I came across an appropriate piece by Baseball Prospectus via a post on NYFansites.com. My opinion that the Braves will be the 4th best team in the NL East is generally mocked and blown off as a severe case of "homer-ism". I just wanted to point out that Baseball Prospectus has come to the same conclusion. That doesn't make it the right one but it sure makes me feel "less crazy".

Code: Select all
Projected standings:

             Record     RS    RA
Mets         91-71     761   678
Phillies     88-74     835   792
Marlins      85-77     764   703
Braves       83-79     771   725
Nationals    66-96     651   761



This is an article by Joe Sheehan, and are only his personal predictions. Baseball Prospectus used PECOTA to project their NL EAST Standings, and here's what they got:

Code: Select all
            W    L    PCT    RS    RA
Phillies   90   72   .554   833   744
Braves     82   80   .506   758   749
Marlins    81   81   .502   724   720
Mets       81   81   .497   736   741
Nationals  74   88   .459   685   749
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:35 am

PECOTA's forcast says that the Braves will allow the most runs in the division. Does that surprise anyone else?

Also, PECOTA doesn't adjust for the fact that the Mets have more money to spend if things aren't going well enough.
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