the elections market is one of the Iowa Electronic Markets -- i linked to the paper describing their results in the original post. i share your enthusiasm for prediction markets, hence this thread
. my intention isn't to completely replicate all of the intricacies of the futures market, only to apply the same dynamics to approach a set of questions we are interesed in. As for the gambling question, i really don't know where you draw the line. Playing the stock market basically is gambling, because when it's not some kind of gamble then your name is Martha Stewart. This is especially the case when it comes to information markets like TerrorXchange or IEM (this is why people thought it was so hanus to suggest a system where someone would profit from a terrorist attack). So i think by using fake dollars, you can just avoid the question all together -- the allocation of a hypothetical resource can be as measured and deliberate as that of an earthly one.