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Fantasy Futures Market

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Postby GiantFan666 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:29 pm

There used to be a game at wall street sports where you started off with x amount of dollars and could use that to buy share of player stocks, ie 50 shares of McGwire @ $70 and then based on the performance that day they would get a bonus for doing well and a penalty for having a bad game, and thn the next morning when the market opened you could either hold onto the stock or sell it for the profit. Usually when a player did well you had to sell them off right at the opening of the market to avoid losing too much due the huge sell off of other players, I think they got bought out by sandbox, but not sure about it
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Postby matdemos » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:30 pm

the elections market is one of the Iowa Electronic Markets -- i linked to the paper describing their results in the original post. i share your enthusiasm for prediction markets, hence this thread ;-D . my intention isn't to completely replicate all of the intricacies of the futures market, only to apply the same dynamics to approach a set of questions we are interesed in. As for the gambling question, i really don't know where you draw the line. Playing the stock market basically is gambling, because when it's not some kind of gamble then your name is Martha Stewart. This is especially the case when it comes to information markets like TerrorXchange or IEM (this is why people thought it was so hanus to suggest a system where someone would profit from a terrorist attack). So i think by using fake dollars, you can just avoid the question all together -- the allocation of a hypothetical resource can be as measured and deliberate as that of an earthly one.
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Postby Arlo » Tue Mar 29, 2005 5:50 pm

Interesting idea - definitely a project worth brainstorming a bit more...
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:59 pm

The Sporting News has something similar to what you are describing.

Every player has a set price. When the season starts up the prices will adjust depending on the demand for each player.
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