I definitely agree with the majority on this one. A-Rod is a proven commodity at a position with basically 4 studs and no more. I like Soriano, and don't write him off as a fluke, however I hesitate to take an early first rounder on a guy for one year's stats. I took Rich Aurilia early last year and got burned. In my sportsline draft sheets, I put Vlad 3rd behind Bonds and Sosa for Outfielders. This is due to the point values for dingers and my own bias for Sosa. I am after all a Cubbie fan. Poor me.
Arod is clearly the # 1 pick. Vlad would be my 2 guy. They were nearly even OPS wise, but a ss putting up those numbers gives him the edge. As far as Soriano, 3 might be a little high. His OPS splits were 935/807.
I am off the school that says position scarcity is a myth. Last year I had Guerrero and got Eckstein in the 12 round of my draft or something. Eckstein had steals, Avg, Runs and Solid RBI's +OBA (I play a 6x6. I would go with Vlad but I can see the logic of going with A-Rod. As for soriano I don't think he is a one year wonder because he is young an will improve. That said he will probably have a light drop off from last year. Don't worry about his declining avg. at the end of the year. The only reason is that he was swinging at everything to try and get his 40HR, he will have learned his lesson.[color=#444444][/color]
This debate (positional scarcity vs. best available player) continues to rage, and will probably still be raging when we've all played our last fantasy games. I think the problem with taking the best available player is that you leave yourself very little room for error. If your sleepers, such as Eckstein, work out, you'll be solid no matter what draft strategy you use, but if they don't, it's far easier to improve in the outfield than it is at shortstop...
True, but that doesn't mean the theory of positional scarcity is wrong. For one thing, Piazza's numbers are much farther below Vlad's than A-Rod's stats; for another, he's getting to the age when catchers' values can decline very quickly, making him a riskier pick than A-Rod...
I don't even see why Piazza gets picked in the first round in most of my leagues. I usually go for a sleeper like Javy (got burned last year) or Barrett (sp)
trevisc
Hall of Fame Hero
Posts: 11271
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Bases this season: 0
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2004,2005 Keeper League Champion
you def go with a-rod, the big difference between the two is steals. You can get the steals in later rounds with guys like castillo or pierre, but can you get 57 homers and 140 rbi's in later rounds? no way...steals is 1 category, but good power will get you 4 in most leagues..homers, rbis, and runs, and ops