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Arod vs. Vlad

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Arod vs. Vlad

Postby jay » Mon Dec 16, 2002 4:41 pm

Seems like a slam dunk, but if you look at the #s, its close:
Runs: ARod 125 Vlad 106
HR: Arod 57 Vlad 39
RBI: Arod 145 Vlad 111
SB: Arod 9 Vlad 40
AVG:Arod .300 Vlad .336
Arod spanks him in 3 and Vlad spanks Arod in 2.
Other things:
* Vlad is one year younger
* Vlad is a free agent next year and will get a better team.
So, in a keeper league, who do you pick first? Or do you pick Soriano?
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Postby Grenade Teeth » Mon Dec 16, 2002 5:22 pm

One important category is mission from your post. Position. SS vs OF.

If you don't get ARod, who do you replace him with? Christian Guzman? If you don't get Vlad, who do you replace him with? Any one of 30 OF that hit .280, 25 HR, 80 RBI, and 10 SB.

I still go with ARod. I expect Vlad to run a little less when/if he goes to a contender.

As for Soriano, I'm giving him at least one more year before I call him Arod's equal.
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Postby Arlo » Mon Dec 16, 2002 5:36 pm

I'm with Grenade Teeth on this one. Positional scarcity makes a huge difference here...
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Postby EugeneStyles » Mon Dec 16, 2002 8:40 pm

Well, on the one hand, Vlad's stats are probably better. Despite the fact that Arod "wins" in 3 categories to Vlad's 2, Vlad absolutely killed Arod in SB's, whereas the other categories are all pretty close. Also, in a 4x4 league, Vlad wins by a little more, since each wins 2 categories, and again spanks Arod in SB's.

But on the other hand, Arlo and Grenade Teeth are absolutely right. A shortstop with that kind of offensive talent is a definite find, whereas you can find a good-hitting outfielder in any corner drugstore (next to the robitussin). Maybe not Vladimir Guerrero quality, but still good.

Really, I don't see any reason why the top 4 picks in any roto draft this year would not be Arod, Vlad, Soriano, and the Big Unit. And, really Arod should always be the top pick. The only wildcard at that point is whether you value consistency (Vlad), positional scarcity (Soriano), or pitching. It's actually possible that Soriano could slip some more with some players who are not sold on his consistency, but the other 3 are pretty much cemented in, and Arod pretty much holds the top of the pile right now.
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Postby Brokentusks9 » Mon Dec 16, 2002 9:04 pm

Soriano.

simple as that ;-D
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Postby jay » Mon Dec 16, 2002 9:52 pm

I agree with the assertions about the importance of position. But no one mentioned versatility. Everyone loves it when they can start troy percival, billy wagner, and eric gagne (as a SP) on yahoo on the same day dont they? I think if you've got a pick in the 4-8 range you have to seriously consider Albert Pujols. 1b, 3b, OF. Picking a guy like that in the 1st give you more room to work.
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Postby MikeeDee » Tue Dec 17, 2002 7:46 am

But versatility only counts when it's about positions where there's scarcity (2B, SS, C, 3B). I'd still go for A-Rod. Immediate impact of the highest level at one of the positions where ggod numbers are very scarce. I like Pujols, but only somewhere between the 4th and 10th pick. I am not totally convinced that Soriana can keep defying all common sense by taking no walks. One more seasan like 2002 and i'll be a believer.
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Postby Brokentusks9 » Tue Dec 17, 2002 8:03 am

You do guys think Soriano's average last year (.300) was a fluke? Didn't he bat like .260 in 2001?

I know that he really struggled to keep his average up at the end of the season..Having him on my Fantasy team I got to witness it first hand.

So do you think he'll bat .300 in 2003?

If I didn't get a top pick in my Fantasy league, I was going to break the bank to bring Soriano to my team...but all the Soriano non-believers have me wondering anymore...hhhhhmm says I. hhhmm
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Dec 17, 2002 9:31 am

Arod at SS is much more valuable. If Vlad gets traded or after he signs as a free agent his SB won't be that much more than Arod. Arod used to steal a ton of bases, so did Barry Bonds.
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Postby Grenade Teeth » Tue Dec 17, 2002 10:40 am

I'm not a Soriano non-believer, last year was not a fluke. But I have a couple reservations....

He is a young player. I was sold on Hidalgo a couple of years ago. He is now mediocre in by a fantasy viewpoint. I don't expect Soriano to go this route, but if you dump a #1-4 pick into him you can't afford it.

Also, he improved dramatically last year. Even people with all term memory loss like me remember Bret Boone's 2000 season, but he come down to earth in 2001. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Boone-like decline this year to say .280, 25, 80, 40SB (still the best 2B). A couple of reasons why this won't happen: Boone old, Soriano young; Boone had bad years before the good year, Soriano had no bad history.
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