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Postby Phatferd » Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:23 am

You are still wrong. I used the word sim as an adjective, I apologize for using it, it was misleading. A sim would be using the data produced by the game for analyzation. All I did with the game was (no stats involved at all) to find out what spot (not who) the spot he lined up with. A person never comes into account its a spot. This is what you are not grasping. Its a place in the rotation, not a person, that I looked at.

I am just not buying your random events being as drastic as you are making them out to be. How often do teams skip a 5th starter for their ace on an off day? It happens yes, but not that often at all. At least 5 of these would have to happen in a course of half the season to overcome this gap, and thats not including how many times he may face a team who has skipped their ace a start due to elbow problems or whatever, so that would swing in Escobars favor.

This randomness that you speak of works both in and against his favor. All I am saying is that a MAJORITY of the time he will face pitchers at the bottom of rotations than at the top. Even if its 10 times to 9, it will be more and I would rather have a good pitcher who faces the 4th and 5th starters more than a good pitcher who faces aces and 2nd starters.

The whole point is that Escobar is a good to really good fantasy pitcher who is at the bottom of his rotation. This will work in his favor. If he were the number 2 guy he would face a MAJORITY of top of the rotation guys. Even if it were 10 to 9 in this case, I would rather him face the bottom more, and he will.

Again, I am not saying this is going to work for every single person, like Suppan, but with the ANGELS SCHEDULE HE WILL FACE The NUMBER 4 & 5 "SLOTS" 12 TIMES TO 5, AND IF A TEAM DECIDES TO MOVE UP AN ACE IN THE 5 SLOT FOR A PARTICULAR DAY, IT WOULD NEED TO OCCUR FREQUENTLY. I just don't buy that happening.
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Postby Phatferd » Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:44 am

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
here is another example using REAL data from the first half of the season. suppan was the cards #5 starter.

c.capuano #4
r.clemens #3
w.miller #4
b.sheets #1
m.clement #3
r.wolf #2
r.wolf #2
j.thomson #3
s.trachsel #2
r.vogelsong #3
r.vogelsong #3
r.oswalt #1
j.dominguez ?
t.hudson #1
g.rusch ?
k.benson #2
j.pineiro #2
m.clement #3

#1-3
#2-5
#3-5
#4-2
#5-0
? -2

if you count glendon rusch and j.dominguez as #5 starters then jeff suppan only faced TWO #5 starters before the all-star break last year and only four of his seventeen starts came against #4 & #5.

i ask you again, show me some REAL data.


I did some research and found this to be inaccurate. You claim Suppan was the number 5 starter. In theory he may be, however, he was the 4th pitcher to pitch for them last year. Carpenter pitched in game 5, so this makes that argument invalid.

The Cards started last year with:
Game 1 - Matt Morris
Game 2 - Jason Marquis
Game 3 - Woddy Williams
Game 4 - Jeff Suppan
Game 5 Chris Carpenter

and since Suppan didn't pitch a single game against a number 5 starter wouldn't this help the argument that a number 5 may not face a 1 often because the number 1 guy is after the 5? If Suppan was the number 4 and didnt face a number 5, wouldn't logic think this to be true?

I'm not saying it is because I don't want to test a handful of players to see if its true I am just using Escobars schedule since this is who the thread is on. I looked into Suppans when you brought him up.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Tue Mar 29, 2005 8:39 am

Phatferd wrote:You are still wrong. I used the word sim as an adjective, I apologize for using it, it was misleading. A sim would be using the data produced by the game for analyzation. All I did with the game was (no stats involved at all) to find out what spot (not who) the spot he lined up with. A person never comes into account its a spot. This is what you are not grasping. Its a place in the rotation, not a person, that I looked at.

I am just not buying your random events being as drastic as you are making them out to be. How often do teams skip a 5th starter for their ace on an off day? It happens yes, but not that often at all. At least 5 of these would have to happen in a course of half the season to overcome this gap, and thats not including how many times he may face a team who has skipped their ace a start due to elbow problems or whatever, so that would swing in Escobars favor.

This randomness that you speak of works both in and against his favor. All I am saying is that a MAJORITY of the time he will face pitchers at the bottom of rotations than at the top. Even if its 10 times to 9, it will be more and I would rather have a good pitcher who faces the 4th and 5th starters more than a good pitcher who faces aces and 2nd starters.

The whole point is that Escobar is a good to really good fantasy pitcher who is at the bottom of his rotation. This will work in his favor. If he were the number 2 guy he would face a MAJORITY of top of the rotation guys. Even if it were 10 to 9 in this case, I would rather him face the bottom more, and he will.

Again, I am not saying this is going to work for every single person, like Suppan, but with the ANGELS SCHEDULE HE WILL FACE The NUMBER 4 & 5 "SLOTS" 12 TIMES TO 5, AND IF A TEAM DECIDES TO MOVE UP AN ACE IN THE 5 SLOT FOR A PARTICULAR DAY, IT WOULD NEED TO OCCUR FREQUENTLY. I just don't buy that happening.


you still dont get it. whether you intended to or not you used the data generated by the computer to determine whether or not the angels or the opposing team would do certain things like skip a starter, have injuries, etc. all it takes is for the angles to adjust by one game and escobar moves into the #1 slot.

yes, the randomness works for and against escobar. conclusion: you dont have a good idea who he is going to face.

you looked at the actual schedule which is nice, but you assumed that the angels wouldnt adjust their rotation and that other teams wouldnt adjust their rotation but we know from historical data that is not going to hold true.

that is where we disagree. randomness plays a huge part in real life baseball. the historical data suggests this.
Last edited by j_d_mcnugent on Tue Mar 29, 2005 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Tue Mar 29, 2005 8:42 am

Phatferd wrote:
j_d_mcnugent wrote:
here is another example using REAL data from the first half of the season. suppan was the cards #5 starter.

c.capuano #4
r.clemens #3
w.miller #4
b.sheets #1
m.clement #3
r.wolf #2
r.wolf #2
j.thomson #3
s.trachsel #2
r.vogelsong #3
r.vogelsong #3
r.oswalt #1
j.dominguez ?
t.hudson #1
g.rusch ?
k.benson #2
j.pineiro #2
m.clement #3

#1-3
#2-5
#3-5
#4-2
#5-0
? -2

if you count glendon rusch and j.dominguez as #5 starters then jeff suppan only faced TWO #5 starters before the all-star break last year and only four of his seventeen starts came against #4 & #5.

i ask you again, show me some REAL data.


I did some research and found this to be inaccurate. You claim Suppan was the number 5 starter. In theory he may be, however, he was the 4th pitcher to pitch for them last year. Carpenter pitched in game 5, so this makes that argument invalid.

The Cards started last year with:
Game 1 - Matt Morris
Game 2 - Jason Marquis
Game 3 - Woddy Williams
Game 4 - Jeff Suppan
Game 5 Chris Carpenter

and since Suppan didn't pitch a single game against a number 5 starter wouldn't this help the argument that a number 5 may not face a 1 often because the number 1 guy is after the 5? If Suppan was the number 4 and didnt face a number 5, wouldn't logic think this to be true?

I'm not saying it is because I don't want to test a handful of players to see if its true I am just using Escobars schedule since this is who the thread is on. I looked into Suppans when you brought him up.


you are right. i messed up. suppan was #4. but i dont see why that would disqualify things. according to your theory he would face mostly #4 starters yet he faces only 2 guys who were in the 4th slot to start the season. you just cant predict who pitchers are going to face.
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Postby Phatferd » Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:34 pm

This is the last I will post on this. Its not that I think he will face mostly number 4 pitchers, its that he will face more number 3s,4s and 5s than anything else. More guys at the bottom of the rotation than the top, thats all. Suppan faced more numbers 3s last year than anything else.

Also I looked at the guys you had matched up against Suppan and he faced D. Oliver, I don't see him on that list?
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:47 pm

let me put it another way. you made an assumption that starters wont change rotation slots (or if they do, it wont be very frequent). you then observed that when they dont change rotation slots a bottom rotation starter will face mainly other bottom rotation starters. those observations show what happens IF your assumption is true, they do not show that your assumption is true. you have to look at actual historical data to show that your assumption is true, but the actual data i looked at just doesnt support your assumption.

sup faced #2 the same amount as #3, and #1 more than #4 or #5. all of this proves nothing which is exactly my point--the data is random. random things occur in baseball such that it is difficult if not impossible to determine what rotation slot the opposing starter will be in.

the data also indicates any perceived advantage (or disadvantage) vs. a certain rotation slot may in fact be no real advantage (or disadvantage). bartolo colon was the angels opening day starter last year but was horrible for a long stretch of time. c.zambrano was the cubs best starter last year but began the season 4th in the rotation. matt morris was the cards opening day starter but was easily their worst starter. carp was the cards 5th starter in the rotation but easily their best starter. mark mulder is potentially their best starter this year but will start the third game of the season. burnett will start the marlins third game this season.

so you cant accurately predict what rotation slots a pitcher will face and you cant accurately predict the quality of the pitcher in those rotation spots. i just dont see how you can conclusively say that a players value will increase or decrease based upon his rotation slot at the beginning of the season.

---------------------
which source did you use? i used yahoo. maybe yahoo messed up but they said oliver appeared against the cards three times. once on may 15 vs. chris carpenter. the other two were relief appearances in the 2nd half of the season.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/5127/gamelog
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Postby Phatferd » Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:56 pm

I agree you cant predict the actual human being in that slot for that day, but my whole assumption was based on "SLOT" there is no person , its a slot! If its game 21 for a team the number 1 slot is pitching, game 22 the number 2 slot is pitching, game 23 the 3, etc...

The slots will never change, the people in those slots may, but those slots will never change.

Also, how accurate is your Suppan list? You don't have Oliver on there and he faced him last year.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:28 pm

Phatferd wrote:I agree you cant predict the actual human being in that slot for that day, but my whole assumption was based on "SLOT" there is no person , its a slot! If its game 21 for a team the number 1 slot is pitching, game 22 the number 2 slot is pitching, game 23 the 3, etc...

The slots will never change, the people in those slots may, but those slots will never change.


if the #5 slot gets skipped because of an off day wouldnt the #1 slot start in game 20? saying the #1 slot will always be game 21 wouldnt result in any meaningful data. the slots would have no connection to any type of starter. if there is potentially anyone in slot #1, what have you proven?

Also, how accurate is your Suppan list? You don't have Oliver on there and he faced him last year.


i noted where i got the suppan data from. yahoo game log does not show oliver starting against suppan. if it is incorrect that isnt my fault.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:37 pm

Where you are in the rotation is meaningless. Things change big-time over the course of a season. And the Jays have their #2 and #3 pitchers in the #4 and #5 spots so that they can face the Red Sox instead of Tampa Bay. Brad Radke is Minnesota's ace while Santana is the #2. It's a waste of time to factor in the rotation spot a pitcher has.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:38 pm

Generally Phatferd, if you are the only person that thinks something, and everyone here disagrees with you, and numerous staticians and other experts disagree with you, you are probably wrong.
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