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Postby wrveres » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:51 pm

Phatferd wrote:I did a little test to figure this out. I popped my MVP Baseball 2005 game into my PS2 and placed Escobar in the 5th pitching spot.



LMAO .... :-b :-b :-b :-b

that could be quite possibly be the funniest thing I have ever read on here.
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:56 pm

How so, its accurate as to what spot in the rotations match up based on schedules?
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Postby wrveres » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:07 pm

Phatferd wrote:How so, its accurate as to what spot in the rotations match up based on schedules?


It doesn't take into account things like managers skipping starters and rainouts, not to mention a great many other things.


what was so funny was you decided to run a test and popped in a video game. ;-D

These are the same video games where you can win all 162 games on the season. Yeah thats accuarate ;-D
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Postby ravenmad22 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:07 pm

Great news for Escobar owners because he faces KC instead of Texas in his first start. KC sucks.
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:11 pm

wrveres wrote:
Phatferd wrote:How so, its accurate as to what spot in the rotations match up based on schedules?


It doesn't take into account things like managers skipping starters and rainouts, not to mention a great many other things.


what was so funny was you decided to run a test and popped in a video game. ;-D

These are the same video games where you can win all 162 games on the season. Yeah thats accuarate ;-D


Haha shows your ignorance. First of all it lets you know how many times that pitcher will line up with their number 5 guy. Yes, things change, but like I showed a couple posts above, everytime someone shows statistics its close to a 2:1 ratio.

I didn't use stats the game spewed out to use a prediction, so I don't know how that has any merit? All I did was use it instead of going through a number of teams schedules to match up when Escobar would play them. This allowed me to view how often he would play a number 1,2,3,4, or 5 starter. I didn't look at the player he faced at all to determine if it was a number 1, 2, etc...I looked at the slot that I was facing, so it's a good tool to determine what "slot" he lines up with.

Yes random things come into the fold, but a lot of Random things have to come into the mix to overcome the 2:1 ratio. Also, the guy used an RJ theory and only solidified my theory.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Mon Mar 28, 2005 9:18 pm

Phatferd wrote:Haha shows your ignorance. First of all it lets you know how many times that pitcher will line up with their number 5 guy. Yes, things change, but like I showed a couple posts above, everytime someone shows statistics its close to a 2:1 ratio.

I didn't use stats the game spewed out to use a prediction, so I don't know how that has any merit? All I did was use it instead of going through a number of teams schedules to match up when Escobar would play them. This allowed me to view how often he would play a number 1,2,3,4, or 5 starter. I didn't look at the player he faced at all to determine if it was a number 1, 2, etc...I looked at the slot that I was facing, so it's a good tool to determine what "slot" he lines up with.

Yes random things come into the fold, but a lot of Random things have to come into the mix to overcome the 2:1 ratio. Also, the guy used an RJ theory and only solidified my theory.


i think you are reading a little too much into the data. there isnt much of it so you can really run into some problems making assumptions. the most important thing is that RJ faced the opposing teams opening day starter only 8 out 35 times (22.9%). the assumption then is that if a #1 starter wont always face a #1 pitcher, a #5 wont always face a #5. is that proof? of course not. but i think it is a reasonable assumption. you can run into some problems making further assumptions. first, i dont understand this 2:1 ratio stuff. how many teams are three deep at starter? couldnt you just as easily say that randy faced #1 & #2 starter 17 out of 35 starts (roughly 50/50). thus the good pitcher to bad pitcher ratio is 1:1 instead of 2:1. second, when you look at the actual people he faced you might be alarmed. three of those starts against alleged #1 were against shawn estes. of course c.zambrano was #4 last year. good pitchers arent always at the top. bad pitchers arent always at the bottom. third, you make the assumption that a #5 will face #4 and #5 types. i see no basis for that assumption. the data shows that when johnson didnt face a #1 he faced #2 and #3 most often. those are they guys that are lower in the rotation. so what is lower than #5? #1 and #2 of course. but there really isnt enough data either way to suggest who escobar will face. it is irrelevant anyway. the second, and most important part of the theory is that escobar will be the beneficiary of extra run support because he will oppose weaker pitchers. by that theory #4 and #5 types will have the most run support.

here are the top 25 pitchers in run support last year, their initial rotation position, and their team:

c.schilling #2 BOS
d.lowe #3 BOS
b.colon #1 ANA
k.rogers #1 TEX
j.lieber ? NYY
k.ishii #4 LAD
m.buehrle #1 CHW
s.estes #1 COL
m.mulder #2 OAK
e.milton #4 PHI
j.westbrook #2 CLE
j.peavy #2 SD
n.robertson ? DET
j.contreras #4 NYY/CWS
b.myers #5 PHI
t.wakefield #4
c.zambrano #4 CHC
r.oswalt #1 HOU
e.loaiza #2 CHW/NYY
b.tomko #2 SFG
r.drese ? TEX
j.marquis #2 STL
j.thomson #3 ATL
m.morris #1 STL
b.arroyo ? BOS

? means that didnt start initially. here is the breakdown by rotation position:

6 #1
7 #2
2 #3
5 #4
1 #5
4 ?

i think it shows that rotation position does not really correlate to better run support. if anything, it shows being on a good team like boston correlates to getting better run support.

so basically, i havent seen any evidence that #5 is any more or less likely to face other #5 starters and i havent seen any evidence that a bottom of the rotation pitcher will have better run support than a top of the rotation pitcher. therefore, i dont think rotation position has any significant effect on fantasy value.

i am always looking for an advantage as are the others in here. if you have real data that shows otherwise please share it. i will look objectively at it.
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 10:00 pm

First of all, RJ is at the top of his rotation, so he will face the top of other rotations more than the bottom. I am saying that Escobar will face the bottom of the rotation more than the top. I showed you a breakdown of what "slot" Escobar will face based on his teams schedule. 10-5 = 2:1...If you add the 4 "slots" that he will face it would be 12-5

The data you provided showed this to be true. If you use your numbers and split the number 3 in half to seperate the top and bottom of a rotation, it would be 20.5:14.5, which closes the gap a little but its closer to 2:1 than 2:2. I do believe more teams have a solid 1-3 than the ones who don't. I still don't support the theory that Some of RJs came against weak "aces" because according to Escobar's schedule he will face 5 "ace slots" in the 1st half, 2 being Bonderman one against Freddy Garcia and 1 against Livan Hernandez. They aren't aces, they are very similar to Escobar in talent so along with all the bottom "slots" he faces this year the "aces" he faces aren't true aces either.

This thread is discussing Escobar I am just saying Escobar will face more bottom of the rotation guy's than he will top. I don't see him facing any 2, or 3 "slot" guys this year, unless of random occurences, which is going to happen. I just don't see enough RANDOM things makign up the gap.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:17 pm

Phatferd wrote:First of all, RJ is at the top of his rotation, so he will face the top of other rotations more than the bottom. I am saying that Escobar will face the bottom of the rotation more than the top. I showed you a breakdown of what "slot" Escobar will face based on his teams schedule. 10-5 = 2:1...If you add the 4 "slots" that he will face it would be 12-5


again, REAL data. i am not interested in video game simulations.



i just dont see anything that allows you to accurately say A) what rotation position starters he will oppose and B) what the quality of the starters will be. 2nd, you havent addressed the most important issue, that there isnt any evidence that suggests bottom of the rotation starters get more run support. why arent there more bottom rotation pitchers in the top 25 run support last year? if they are constantly opposing weaker pitchers then they would have better run support. or, if bottom rotation guys constantly face bottom rotation guys it doesnt translate into any extra run support over the other pitchers on the team. the top 25 run support looks like a pretty random assortment to me. without the run support, doesnt matter what rotation position escobar is in. how is he more valuable if he doesnt get any more run support?
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:59 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
Phatferd wrote:First of all, RJ is at the top of his rotation, so he will face the top of other rotations more than the bottom. I am saying that Escobar will face the bottom of the rotation more than the top. I showed you a breakdown of what "slot" Escobar will face based on his teams schedule. 10-5 = 2:1...If you add the 4 "slots" that he will face it would be 12-5


again, REAL data. i am not interested in video game simulations.



i just dont see anything that allows you to accurately say A) what rotation position starters he will oppose and B) what the quality of the starters will be. 2nd, you havent addressed the most important issue, that there isnt any evidence that suggests bottom of the rotation starters get more run support. why arent there more bottom rotation pitchers in the top 25 run support last year? if they are constantly opposing weaker pitchers then they would have better run support. or, if bottom rotation guys constantly face bottom rotation guys it doesnt translate into any extra run support over the other pitchers on the team. the top 25 run support looks like a pretty random assortment to me. without the run support, doesnt matter what rotation position escobar is in. how is he more valuable if he doesnt get any more run support?


Answer me where in the hell is there a video game simulation? I didn't simulate video game results, so get off your high horse. Let me slow this down for you...

If team A had 5 starters they pitch in an order of 1,2,3,4,5 when Escobar was up to pitch I looked at the slot that was pitching that day, you can have Curt Schiiling in slot 5 for all I care, all I am saying is he faces slots 4-5 12 times to slots 1-3 5 times (he doesnt even face a guy in slot 2-3 in the first half). Say Oak starts the year with Haren number 3 and is in slot 3, maybe due to randomness he moves to the 4 and faces the Angels, ok he is facing a true slot 3 guy, but he is still facing slot 4 because someone else took slot 3 for that week or that order. You need a lot of this randomness to occur to overcome the 10:5 ratio that Escobar has THIS YEAR. Some pitchers may be different, but how the Angels rotation and schedule falls this year, this is the way it will be.

You did the same thing with RJ who had 20.5 to 14.5...And if the Angels hitters are playing 4 or 5 starters for the MAJORITY of the time when Escobar pitches, they will more than likely score more runs against those guys than top of the rotation pitchers.

Who is to say that when he lines up with the number 1 slots for those 5 times that due to randomness hes facing a number 5? It will even itself out somewhat, so as I have said all along, it will take a whole hell of a lot to overcome the 10:5 gap.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Tue Mar 29, 2005 12:58 am

Answer me where in the hell is there a video game simulation?



I did a little test to figure this out. I popped my MVP Baseball 2005 game into my PS2 and placed Escobar in the 5th pitching spot. I then simmed every game until it was his game to start to see who he matched up against order wise (1st, 2nd, etc...). I did just the first half, because after that, teams do a lot of tinkering and re-arranging.


let me slow this down for you. you 'simmed' whether or not the opposing pitchers would get injured, whether or not they would skip the fifth starter when they have off days, whether or not they would adjust the rotation to match up against division rivals, whether or not there would be a rain out, etc. that kind of stuff just isnt accurately taken into account by video games.

here is another example using REAL data from the first half of the season. suppan was the cards #5 starter.

c.capuano #4
r.clemens #3
w.miller #4
b.sheets #1
m.clement #3
r.wolf #2
r.wolf #2
j.thomson #3
s.trachsel #2
r.vogelsong #3
r.vogelsong #3
r.oswalt #1
j.dominguez ?
t.hudson #1
g.rusch ?
k.benson #2
j.pineiro #2
m.clement #3

#1-3
#2-5
#3-5
#4-2
#5-0
? -2

if you count glendon rusch and j.dominguez as #5 starters then jeff suppan only faced TWO #5 starters before the all-star break last year and only four of his seventeen starts came against #4 & #5.

i ask you again, show me some REAL data.
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