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Postby ajgnydc722 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:36 pm

Phatferd wrote:Escobars biggest concern is his Wins. If he is number 5 he will face a lot of other teams 4 and 5's and the Angels offense should do pretty well against his counterparts. This raises his value a little bit. I also would assume that in the 2nd half they re-arrange their rotation to get him towards the top.


I like having him on my team as a number 5 starter and Burnett on my team as a number 3 starter. Crappier opponents=more support=more wins.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:42 pm

Phatferd wrote:Escobars biggest concern is his Wins. If he is number 5 he will face a lot of other teams 4 and 5's and the Angels offense should do pretty well against his counterparts. This raises his value a little bit. I also would assume that in the 2nd half they re-arrange their rotation to get him towards the top.


just plain not true. due to off days, skipped starts from injuries, and that sort of thing you cant say who he is going to face. his place in the rotation should have no effect on his value.
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:46 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
Phatferd wrote:Escobars biggest concern is his Wins. If he is number 5 he will face a lot of other teams 4 and 5's and the Angels offense should do pretty well against his counterparts. This raises his value a little bit. I also would assume that in the 2nd half they re-arrange their rotation to get him towards the top.


just plain not true. due to off days, skipped starts from injuries, and that sort of thing you cant say who he is going to face. his place in the rotation should have no effect on his value.


Thats not true. Teams only have about 15 off days for the entire year not including the all star break. He may face a number 1 here and there, but 80 percent of his games would be against 4s and 5s...
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Postby blackbearabroad » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:56 pm

How often do you see one teams ace squaring off against everyone elses on a regualr basis? yea a couple years ago mussina and pedro pitched against each other 4 times. Travel days (discounting monday) and days off are generally different for different teams, and different manageril aproachs (extra rest or consistentcy) mix things up, so an ace faces a scrub as often as anything else. Just look at the money line for a couple weeks, just don't bet on it
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:35 pm

I did a little test to figure this out. I popped my MVP Baseball 2005 game into my PS2 and placed Escobar in the 5th pitching spot. I then simmed every game until it was his game to start to see who he matched up against order wise (1st, 2nd, etc...). I did just the first half, because after that, teams do a lot of tinkering and re-arranging.

He pitched in 17 games.

10 games vs. the number 5 starters.
5 games vs. number 1 starters (Detroit twice, CHW, NYM, WAS)
2 games vs. number 4 starters (TEX twice).


The theory that he will face more 4s and 5s is true. At least for him according to the Angels schedule. If you are an Escobar owner, I would also like his matchups agaisnt the aces he faces DET doesn't have a real ace and WAS has an ace very similar to Escobar, so this spot in the rotation really helps him this year.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:58 pm

Phatferd wrote:The theory that he will face more 4s and 5s is true. At least for him according to the Angels schedule. If you are an Escobar owner, I would also like his matchups agaisnt the aces he faces DET doesn't have a real ace and WAS has an ace very similar to Escobar, so this spot in the rotation really helps him this year.
There is no predicting rainouts and injuries to SP. Those could both throw off the matchups you are predicting. I like Escobar but I wouldn't draft him betting on him getting those matchups.
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:03 pm

its over a 2:1 ratio. Yes things happen and things get mixed up a little bit, but its simply not true that he will face an equal share of everyone. He WILL face more bottom of the rotation guys. Also, how many rainouts are there a year? This is also only discussing the first half of the season.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:05 pm

i have some data from last year that i was using for something else but is applicable here as well. randy johnson was the #1 starter for the d-backs last year but only matched up against the opposing teams opening day starter 8 times last year.

#1 - 8 starts
#2 - 9 starts
#3 - 7 starts
#4 - 5 starts
#5 - 1 start
n/a- 5 starts

n/a is guys who werent starters initially or not on the major league roster initially....basically #5 types.

its not impossible for a #5 to mostly match up against other #5s, its just not likely to happen. rotation spots get flipped all the time. sometimes the other team will keep their #1 pitching every 5th DAY instead of every fifth GAME. sometimes players miss a start or two with injury. sometimes a guy leaves after one inning because of an ejection so he pitches a few days later instead of his normal turn. when that stuff happens the whole systems gets off kilter, and it does happen regularly in real baseball.
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Postby NZF » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:28 pm

Yeah your argument is basically flawed Phatferd. It only really has merit in the first few weeks and that is reliant on all rotations staying in order. That just won't happen for very long.

More relevant is the opposition Escobar will face as the 5th starter. In his first start he'll go against KC instead of Texas. That sort of thing is a better guide.

Another good example from another team is Erik Bedard. As the O's 3rd starter he is very likely to miss the home away series aginst the Yankees and the Red Sox in April. Instead he'll likely pitch against Oakland, Tampa Bay, Detroit and Toronto. This makes him a decent spot starting option. Especially if you have Rodrigo Lopez on your roster because he'll likely face the Yankees and the Red Sox four times in April alone.
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:45 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:i have some data from last year that i was using for something else but is applicable here as well. randy johnson was the #1 starter for the d-backs last year but only matched up against the opposing teams opening day starter 8 times last year.

#1 - 8 starts
#2 - 9 starts
#3 - 7 starts
#4 - 5 starts
#5 - 1 start
n/a- 5 starts

n/a is guys who werent starters initially or not on the major league roster initially....basically #5 types.

its not impossible for a #5 to mostly match up against other #5s, its just not likely to happen. rotation spots get flipped all the time. sometimes the other team will keep their #1 pitching every 5th DAY instead of every fifth GAME. sometimes players miss a start or two with injury. sometimes a guy leaves after one inning because of an ejection so he pitches a few days later instead of his normal turn. when that stuff happens the whole systems gets off kilter, and it does happen regularly in real baseball.


I think this is making my argument for me...He faced 1-3 at a ratio close to 2:1 over the 4-5... Escobar is the number 5 he will face more bottom of the rotation starters than the top. Its simple and the stats you just showed me for RJ prove that. He pitched agaisnt top of the rotation guys more than bottom, cause he was the number 1.

Again I know over the whole year it fills out more, but so much happens at the break in re-arranging so I don't consider that. I think Escobar will be moved towards the top of the rotation at the break.
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