j_d_mcnugent wrote:i have some data from last year that i was using for something else but is applicable here as well. randy johnson was the #1 starter for the d-backs last year but only matched up against the opposing teams opening day starter 8 times last year.
#1 - 8 starts
#2 - 9 starts
#3 - 7 starts
#4 - 5 starts
#5 - 1 start
n/a- 5 starts
n/a is guys who werent starters initially or not on the major league roster initially....basically #5 types.
its not impossible for a #5 to mostly match up against other #5s, its just not likely to happen. rotation spots get flipped all the time. sometimes the other team will keep their #1 pitching every 5th DAY instead of every fifth GAME. sometimes players miss a start or two with injury. sometimes a guy leaves after one inning because of an ejection so he pitches a few days later instead of his normal turn. when that stuff happens the whole systems gets off kilter, and it does happen regularly in real baseball.
I think this is making my argument for me...He faced 1-3 at a ratio close to 2:1 over the 4-5... Escobar is the number 5 he will face more bottom of the rotation starters than the top. Its simple and the stats you just showed me for RJ prove that. He pitched agaisnt top of the rotation guys more than bottom, cause he was the number 1.
Again I know over the whole year it fills out more, but so much happens at the break in re-arranging so I don't consider that. I think Escobar will be moved towards the top of the rotation at the break.