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vlad vs. beltran

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Postby blankman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 3:33 pm

Amazinz wrote:
blankman wrote:
jkpigskin wrote:beltran is very patient at the plate.. so he will help u with walks... if beltran can go back to his .300 ways and keep his other stats near where they were last year.. then he will be awesome... though i think vlad is the safer pick


Beltran very patient? You can't be serious. Back to his .300 ways? He's a career .284 hitter and has hit .300 only twice in 7 years.

Vlad and Alex Rodriguez are both better picks than Beltran in my opinion.

Beltran is a patient hitter. He hit .300+ in '01 and '03 and in ~3500 ABs the difference between a .300 hitter and a .285 hitter is not that wide.

You can make an argument for Vlad over Beltran but personally I'd take Beltran. Definitely not Arod.


The gap is not that wide, but the quote "back to his .300 days" implies that .300 is the norm for him, when it is clearly not.

Last year was the only year where Beltran's BB totals could be classified as patient. I look for more than one year in something like that. We'll see about this week.

There are a ton of variables going into what Carlos Beltran will do next year. He could hit .300, but he's just as likely to hit .280. He could hit 40 HR, but he's playing at Shea and has never hit 40 before. He could steal 40, but maybe he won't run as much now that he has the contract (I'm not saying he's like that, but we don't know for sure). Alex is a much safer pick and with my projections for him, I'd easily take him over the question mark of Carlos Beltran. The first round is about guarentees. Carlos is more of a potential pick. He's done everything, but has yet to put it all together in one season, so until he proves that he can, I can't justify taking him over guarentees like Pujols, Vlad and Alex.
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I must be crazy

Postby babaoriley7 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 3:53 pm

When considering the 1 round pick, I'm sure i'm in the minority but I would order the best players:

Arod
Puljols
Tejada/Guerrero

I consider Beltran to be over valued this year, at his best I think he will be similar to Magglio Ordonez with a few more steals. It could be argued that would put him right in that area but I'd take Beltran after all of those guys
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Postby thehat » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:03 pm

Do NOT trade Crawford. Look, this is really pretty simple. You got Crawford at #18 overall. This is a guy who's going Top 10 in virtually every league, and top five in the big name expert leagues.

Clearly, he is being undervalued by your competitors if he lasted till the 18th pick. Therefore, I would seriously doubt you can reap proper value for him in a trade at this point in time.

Trading for need and perhaps sacrificing value in the process is acceptable if you're heading down the stretch and there's a category that you absolutely have to improve in. But to shop Crawford this early when it's obvious he's not thought of so highly in your particular league would almost certainly be counterproductive. Just keep the guy and congratulate yourself on scoring a steal with the #18 selection.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:05 pm

i think beltran is much more likely to replicate his stats from last year (and maybe even add a .300 BA) than tejada is to repeat his.

and in order to justify a first-rounder on tejada, he would actually have to improve his numbers. you say you think beltran is overvalued and in the same breath put tejada next to vlad? no, sir, they're both way over-valued this year and since i wouldn't spend a first rounder on either (well, maybe to "draft-and-trade" if they fell far enough), i'll be without both this year.
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Re: I must be crazy

Postby LBJackal » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:30 pm

babaoriley7 wrote:I consider Beltran to be over valued this year, at his best I think he will be similar to Magglio Ordonez with a few more steals.


8-o

I'll leave my Beltran thoughts out of this but I won't hesitate to bring some old threads back up when he proves all of the doubters wrong.

BTW nice username. Remember, it's only Teenage Wasteland ;-D
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:31 pm

thehat wrote:Do NOT trade Crawford. Look, this is really pretty simple. You got Crawford at #18 overall. This is a guy who's going Top 10 in virtually every league, and top five in the big name expert leagues.


You hahvew to keep in mind that this isn't a 5x5 league. Crawford is weak in TB and BB.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:32 pm

hahvew? :-D
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Re: I must be crazy

Postby blankman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:20 pm

LBJackal wrote:
babaoriley7 wrote:I consider Beltran to be over valued this year, at his best I think he will be similar to Magglio Ordonez with a few more steals.


8-o

I'll leave my Beltran thoughts out of this but I won't hesitate to bring some old threads back up when he proves all of the doubters wrong.


Just like the Loaiza ones? ;-)
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Postby bob123 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:31 pm

ok, let me make a couple of points. i apologize in advance for the long post.

about crawford:

i never said i was going to trade crawford. if i trade crawford, i won't win steals every week. as long as i have crawford and beltran, i will likely win that category every week, and i like that. i am probably going to try to trade patterson like i said. i am thinking somewhere along of the lines of patterson and ramon hernandez for piazza and justin morneau (and then i'd grab a backup for piazza from the free agent pool). i am high on morneau this year. what do you guys think about this?

about beltran:

beltran is 27 right now. i see no reason whatsoever he can't have the best year of his career this year. to me, 40 homers, 110 rbi, 40 steals, a .290 average, 120 runs, 100 walks, etc. is not out of the question. calling him magglio ordonez plus a few steals is a joke, especially in light of maggs' tendency to miss time. all i'm saying is that for my team - which gets a ton of steals anyway and could use some extra power (click my handle to find the thread where i posted my team) - vlad is probably a better choice.

about guillen/nomar:

heh, i was making a joke when i first addressed this. obviously i was not clear enough. i think nomar is a great fantasy player. i just refuse to touch him for a few years because he burned me badly last year. i'm almost doing it to spite him. i don't expect you to take this seriously, obviously - it's kind of a joke between me and some guys in my league. the point is that i don't want nomar (i can get more for crawford anyway).

as for guillen being as valuable a fantasy shortstop as nomar (or close to it), i really do think this is possible. yeah, i'm an optimist. but look at guillen's stats last year: .318/.379/.542 for a .921 ops. 20 dingers, 97 rbi, 12 steals, and 97 runs. that is tremendous production for a shortstop. nomar played 81 games last year - if you double his stats (which is generous, because guillen played only 136 games last year), they come out to 18 homers, 82 rbi, 104 runs, eight steals, and an .842 ops. clearly guillen was a little bit better last year when both were on the field (and guillen was on the field more). in '03, when nomar played 153 games, he had an ops of .869 (still inferior to guillen's '04).

was last year a fluke for guillen? as i said, i'm optimistic.
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Postby blankman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 9:21 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I am suprised however by your pessimism of Beltran's BA. I thought for sure youve seen the threads detailing why moving to Shea will help boost that BA from his career low last yr (thanks in large part to the negative affect MM has on LH batters). Blank - you are a Yankee fan, right? Just wondering.


I'm not going out and predicting Beltran to hit .270 this year, but I realize how much of a risk his average still is no matter what factors Shea has. I'm far less optomistic about knowing and predicting Beltran's numbers than Alex Rodriguez's. I'd rather take the guy whose stats I already know (likely within a pretty small range) rather than bank on all the variables working out for Beltran.
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