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vlad vs. beltran

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Postby blankman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:38 pm

jkpigskin wrote:beltran is very patient at the plate.. so he will help u with walks... if beltran can go back to his .300 ways and keep his other stats near where they were last year.. then he will be awesome... though i think vlad is the safer pick


Beltran very patient? You can't be serious. Back to his .300 ways? He's a career .284 hitter and has hit .300 only twice in 7 years.

Vlad and Alex Rodriguez are both better picks than Beltran in my opinion.
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Postby blankman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:40 pm

Kelly Gruber wrote:I agree, but you didn't know you were getting Crawford later, right. Why don't you trade Crawford, who is really hyped up right now, for a decent power hitter. I'd suggest trading for Nomar if you can before he starts tearing it up for the Cubs, although it may be too late now, as people are excited by his ST stats.


Nomar?? 8-o

Trade Crawford for Nomar??? 8-o 8-o

Not a chance.
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Postby bob123 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:48 pm

hey, thanks for the input and suggestions everyone.

i think some of you guys - although i am second guessing the pick, as i said - are underestimating beltran.

let me break this down category by category. as i mentioned, my league has seven offensive categories. here's the way i see it:

runs - even
average - big edge to vlad (+50 points or so for vlad)
home runs - slight edge to vlad (+5 for vlad)
rbi - slight edge to vlad (+20 for vlad)
steals - big edge to beltran (+25 for beltran)
walks - big edge to beltran (+45 for beltran)
total bases - slight edge to vlad (+40 for vlad)

as you can see, they're even in one category, vlad has a slight edge in three, vlad his a big edge in one, and beltran has a big edge in two (tell me if you disagree with any of this).

and the wild card to me is that beltran is a lock (knock on wood) to stay healthy while vlad is a slight risk to miss some time.

i like the suggestion of trading patterson (if you haven't seen my team, you can click my handle if you want - i posted my team in the evaluation forum); one manager has already expressed interest. i don't think i want to trade crawford, because then i'd be giving up my stranglehold on steals. patterson will swipe about 30 i think; crawford will steal about double that.

i might do something like patterson and my catcher (hernandez) for justin morneau and piazza ... is this any good? i like morneau and i think he would be a nice addition for power and for walks. do you guys think piazza will stay healthy? he could be a great addition if he does. contract year too.

thoughts?
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:49 pm

blankman wrote:
jkpigskin wrote:beltran is very patient at the plate.. so he will help u with walks... if beltran can go back to his .300 ways and keep his other stats near where they were last year.. then he will be awesome... though i think vlad is the safer pick


Beltran very patient? You can't be serious. Back to his .300 ways? He's a career .284 hitter and has hit .300 only twice in 7 years.

Vlad and Alex Rodriguez are both better picks than Beltran in my opinion.

Beltran is a patient hitter. He hit .300+ in '01 and '03 and in ~3500 ABs the difference between a .300 hitter and a .285 hitter is not that wide.

You can make an argument for Vlad over Beltran but personally I'd take Beltran. Definitely not Arod.
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Postby Octavian » Mon Mar 28, 2005 2:22 pm

bob123 wrote:unfortunately i have a no nomar policy in place for a couple of years because he burned me last year, heh. i have carlos guillen at shortstop anyway; i'm optimistic and i think he should give me similar production to nomar.


One year wonder anyone? Guillen did nothing for his career before last year and there's nothing to say he'll do what he did last year again. Aiming for a guy who has proven absolutely nothing to produce like a healthy Nomar Garciaparra is past optimistic, it's just foolish.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Mar 28, 2005 2:29 pm

SominaDei wrote:
bob123 wrote:unfortunately i have a no nomar policy in place for a couple of years because he burned me last year, heh. i have carlos guillen at shortstop anyway; i'm optimistic and i think he should give me similar production to nomar.


One year wonder anyone? Guillen did nothing for his career before last year and there's nothing to say he'll do what he did last year again. Aiming for a guy who has proven absolutely nothing to produce like a healthy Nomar Garciaparra is past optimistic, it's just foolish.


Guillen has always been injured. Last yr was the longest he has ever stayed healthy since being called up. You can say he's an injury risk, but to base your projections on Guillen from his past stats isnt taking his injuries into consideration. Im not saying Guillen is better than Nomar, but you seem to discount one players injury history and not the other.
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Postby Woolly » Mon Mar 28, 2005 2:32 pm

Vlad
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Postby Deuce » Mon Mar 28, 2005 2:38 pm

Now that you have selected Beltran (oops), you should build around him. Keep Crawford for the SB and draft more power. Try to get power at some other position (like Kent @ 2b), that is usually a speed position.
The difference between and Beltran and Vlad is not that great. It can be made up with a couple of good picks.
If Vlad gets injured this season, and Beltran stays healthy, you'll know you made the right choice. And you may find yourself passing the team who drafted Vlad. All is not lost
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Postby blankman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 3:20 pm

SominaDei wrote:
bob123 wrote:unfortunately i have a no nomar policy in place for a couple of years because he burned me last year, heh. i have carlos guillen at shortstop anyway; i'm optimistic and i think he should give me similar production to nomar.


One year wonder anyone? Guillen did nothing for his career before last year and there's nothing to say he'll do what he did last year again. Aiming for a guy who has proven absolutely nothing to produce like a healthy Nomar Garciaparra is past optimistic, it's just foolish.


Yet neither player is worth Carl Crawford.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Mar 28, 2005 3:27 pm

blankman wrote:
SominaDei wrote:
bob123 wrote:unfortunately i have a no nomar policy in place for a couple of years because he burned me last year, heh. i have carlos guillen at shortstop anyway; i'm optimistic and i think he should give me similar production to nomar.


One year wonder anyone? Guillen did nothing for his career before last year and there's nothing to say he'll do what he did last year again. Aiming for a guy who has proven absolutely nothing to produce like a healthy Nomar Garciaparra is past optimistic, it's just foolish.


Yet neither player is worth Carl Crawford.



Agreed - thats not wise by any measure. Although - there seems to be a group of fantasy players who for whatever reason think Nomar is an absolute must have player this yr - so much so that they will swear he is a late 1st - early 2nd rd pick. I think its more of a brainwashed cult effect than anything else. :-? :-b

I am suprised however by your pessimism of Beltran's BA. I thought for sure youve seen the threads detailing why moving to Shea will help boost that BA from his career low last yr (thanks in large part to the negative affect MM has on LH batters). Blank - you are a Yankee fan, right? Just wondering.
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