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T Gordon/J Rincon = fantasy stud SP

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T Gordon/J Rincon = fantasy stud SP

Postby titanut » Sun Mar 27, 2005 9:56 pm

If you look at their combined stats for last year, they are amazing
20 wins
202 Ks
172 IP
2.42 era
0.95 WHIP
I'm in a 12 team 5x5 roto, Rincon is on the waiver wire, I have
Gordon . Oswalt and Peavy are my 2 "stuuds". I know
it's unrealistic to expect 20 wins again, but 17 seems good. I would
have to give up #5 waiver priorty and Brazelton(sniif) am I missing
something?
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Postby SouthBronxBombers » Sun Mar 27, 2005 9:59 pm

Wins can never be counted on for short relievers. I would count on a good whip, good era, solid K's, but trying to calculate wins is just a crap shoot. That being said, I think he would probably help your team more than Brazelton.
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Postby so0perspam » Sun Mar 27, 2005 10:00 pm

I think that's exactly the same as 'Lo's theory of build a stud with 2 MR closers and I agree with it .... drop Braz and pick up Rincon.
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Postby looptid » Mon Mar 28, 2005 12:33 am

I think Crain will be just as good as Rincon, and if other members of your league also draft good relievers, you could most likely get him with your last pick. Check out his major and minor league stats:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... rain.shtml

The .211 he held lefties to in his first stint in the bigs was very good, but nothing compared to the .158 he limited righties to.
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Postby asumikey222 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 12:37 am

Not if Rincon has the same year he had two years ago. And this happens all the time with MRs. I personally don't like to count on MRs for stats, but some are bolder than me and maybe it works once in a while.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:08 am

The theory really makes sense to me. If you have enough starters to fill up your IP's, then I would surely get Rincon and use the duo as much as you can.

(at least I'd like to try to do that...kent keeps taking them before I get a chance :-P ;-) )
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Postby Iconoclastic » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:17 am

The fallacy of this strategy is simple- MR rarely have consistent seasons. Hasegawa was lights out 2 years ago, last year he was crap. Same level of inconsistency with Timlin, or Arthur Rhodes, or tons of MR. If there's anyone more inconsistent than Starting Pitchers, it's MR because one bad outing will screw up his ERA from 3 to 4. And for this strategy to work, you need TWO inconsistent MR to both repeat last year's performances. That's much less likely than a stud pitcher being successful.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:25 am

Iconoclastic wrote:The fallacy of this strategy is simple- MR rarely have consistent seasons. Hasegawa was lights out 2 years ago, last year he was crap. Same level of inconsistency with Timlin, or Arthur Rhodes, or tons of MR. If there's anyone more inconsistent than Starting Pitchers, it's MR because one bad outing will screw up his ERA from 3 to 4. And for this strategy to work, you need TWO inconsistent MR to both repeat last year's performances. That's much less likely than a stud pitcher being successful.

I think you misunderstand. I've used this "strategy" for quite some time and it's effective. First, you're not replacing a stud SP with 2 RP. Anything they provide you is in addition to so there's nothing fallacious about it. If you make the wrong choices then it's no big deal. Second, you are taking late-round fliers on this guys so it's low risk. I agree MR are volatile but if you're active on the WW you shouldn't have any problem replacing the wrong choices. This "strategy" sure beats starting some crappy #5.
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Postby Iconoclastic » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:30 am

Amazinz wrote:
Iconoclastic wrote:The fallacy of this strategy is simple- MR rarely have consistent seasons. Hasegawa was lights out 2 years ago, last year he was crap. Same level of inconsistency with Timlin, or Arthur Rhodes, or tons of MR. If there's anyone more inconsistent than Starting Pitchers, it's MR because one bad outing will screw up his ERA from 3 to 4. And for this strategy to work, you need TWO inconsistent MR to both repeat last year's performances. That's much less likely than a stud pitcher being successful.

I think you misunderstand. I've used this "strategy" for quite some time and it's effective. First, you're not replacing a stud SP with 2 RP. Anything they provide you is in addition to so there's nothing fallacious about it. If you make the wrong choices then it's no big deal. Second, you are taking late-round fliers on this guys so it's low risk. I agree MR are volatile but if you're active on the WW you shouldn't have any problem replacing the wrong choices. This "strategy" sure beats starting some crappy #5.


I guess I did misunderstand. I mean two late MR will probably outproduce a Brazelton. But as you go up the pitching ladder to guys like Livan Hernandez or Jeff Weaver then counting on stud numbers from the MR is probably not such a good idea.
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Postby KolbSaves » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:37 am

One modification of the strategy is to not draft middle relievers and then pick up a couple of the emerging ones as you find out that a couple of your draft picks are busts and you have open rosters spots.
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