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Tout Wars Auction Draft.

Postby bleach168 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 6:17 am

http://www.toutwars.com/05mixdraftlog.shtml

Pretty funny to see 5 experts commit the cardinal sin of leaving money on the table. They ended the auction with these gems,

$7 for Johnny Peralta
$10 for Horacio Ramirez
$25 for Jeromy Burnitz
$31 for Ted Lilly
$50 for Joel Pineiro 8-o

I can't figure out who did well, but I can already tell you in 5 seconds who did BAD.
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Postby Conner » Sun Mar 27, 2005 6:28 am

Just something I posted a while ago....Obviously, 50 bucks for Pineiro is just wacky...But these guys are experts....Sometimes it really just works out for them, no matter how silly we may think they are.


LABR winners didn't go by the book
10/23/2001

The two winners of the 2001 Leagues of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) shared one glaringly obvious trait. Superior expertise? Unique insight? Deft roster management?

Maybe. But they also left a combined $36 on the table on Draft Day.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ committed drafting's cardinal sin. No matter — they both won easily.

"When I left $26 on the table, I didn't think I had necessarily blown it completely, but I figured I had handicapped my chances severely," Mayo said. "After the draft, I thought my starting pitching was the key, and I turned out to be right. Getting Clemens for $15 was a huge steal, and Paul Abbott's year was a tremendous help."

After the draft, I figured Mayo's team, despite his $234 payroll, Doug Dennis' Monster Mailbag and my team were the strongest. I was right about the first two — Dennis finished second — but my pitching never came around. (I don't think Pedro will go for $40 next year.)

Shandler's fortunes, meanwhile, were tied to a handful of great bargains — probably the biggest overachievers not named Albert Pujols.

"Can I say I had a great draft? I dunno," Shandler said. "When I bought Paul Lo Duca, Luis Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez, Juan Pierre and Bubba Trammell, it wasn't like I expected that $55 investment to yield nearly $150. You always have to take a chance on a few players, and expect to have some winners and some losers, but at the time, that was simply the going rate.

"I did think Lo Duca would be a steal for a buck, and even Gonzalez potentially at $22, but I gritted my teeth when I went $11 on Ramirez. There was equal teeth-gnashing when I spent $11 on Erubiel Durazo, and you know how that ended up."

But a few busts can quickly negate a handful of bargains, and Shandler did draft a few underachievers, too.

"Come to think of it, the $50 in losses I took on Durazo, Edgardo Alfonzo, Sean Casey, Benny Agbayani, Eric Owens and Gabe White gave back over half of the profit I made. That's not even taking into account the $10 I left on the table. So it's not as if I came anywhere close to having a 'perfect draft.' "

Shandler's $21 on starting pitching was well spent: Javier Vazquez, Brian Tollberg and Brad Penny. And he plucked a $3 Brian Lawrence off the FAAB pile.

"The bottom line is that winning is a process," Shandler said. "It's not like this title was won by any one player, or even by a small group of players. I can't believe some of the names that made cameo appearances on this team: Chris Truby, Ramon E. Martinez, Jack Wilson, Hideki Irabu, Troy Mattes, and my ultimate $1 FAAB pickup, Don Wengert. Ick.

"I guess the secret to success is to minimize the Wengert damage and maximize the Lo Duca gains. Not rocket science, huh?"

For Mayo, it was Rocket science, with Clemens at least. And, frankly, some nice surprises named Catalanotto and Menechino. He also was able to deal starters and closers late in the season in defensive trades to hold off any threat.

Oh, and as for Pujols, who got him?

CDM challenge winner Josh Paley bid $1 on Shane Andrews at the draft, only to hear, "going once, going twice ... two bucks!"

Yeah, that was me. I thought there was no way Pujols would see St. Louis this season. Paley then combed his list for a possible third baseman who wouldn't post a negative value, and arrived at Pujols through the process of elimination.

"I must admit that I did feel more than a bit sad about it at the time," said Paley, a Cardinals fan. "Who knew?"

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/2001 ... antasy.htm
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Postby bleach168 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 6:43 am

Just something I posted a while ago....Obviously, 50 bucks for Pineiro is just wacky...But these guys are experts....Sometimes it really just works out for them, no matter how silly we may think they are.


If you leave money on the table and still win the league, either you're really lucky or the rest of the league is really bad. Shandler admits to being lucky that year.
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Postby Conner » Sun Mar 27, 2005 6:49 am

bleach168 wrote:
Just something I posted a while ago....Obviously, 50 bucks for Pineiro is just wacky...But these guys are experts....Sometimes it really just works out for them, no matter how silly we may think they are.


If you leave money on the table and still win the league, either you're really lucky or the rest of the league is really bad. Shandler admits to being lucky that year.


Being lucky doesn't mean you weren't also good...



All I'm saying is that making a mistake or two doesn't make one a bad person, and certainly doesn't make it impossible to still win.

I've just seen way too many people here proclaiming all kinds of people's drafts terrible before the season starts...Sometimes, the experts really do know what they're doing.

Shandler picked Carl Crawford really early in a couple of drafts this year, by the way. I'm very interested in seeing how that turns out...


EDIT: I just re-read the article, and I don't get the impression at all that Shandler felt "lucky" to win that year...
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Postby bleach168 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 7:24 am

When I bought Paul Lo Duca, Luis Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez, Juan Pierre and Bubba Trammell, it wasn't like I expected that $55 investment to yield nearly $150.


Look at Luis Gonzalez' 2001 numbers. Unless Shandler had some kind of inside info that Luis was juicing which I find hard to believe on several levels, Shandler just got a bonus 30 homeruns out of nowhere. That's what we call luck.

If I were to draft Placido Polanco in the 4th round (Shandler did that last year) when on average Polanco goes in round 12, you can go ahead and proclaim that to be terrible because it is.

Some moves are just plain bad. Just because you can win despite your mistakes doesn't make your mistakes any less unacceptable.

As for Shandler's Crawford pick, I found it weird, but defensible. Shandler knew that Crawford wouldn't have made in back to him in the late 2nd round so that was his only chance to get Crawford.
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Re: Tout Wars Auction Draft.

Postby pokerplaya » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:44 pm

bleach168 wrote:http://www.toutwars.com/05mixdraftlog.shtml

Pretty funny to see 5 experts commit the cardinal sin of leaving money on the table. They ended the auction with these gems,

$7 for Johnny Peralta
$10 for Horacio Ramirez
$25 for Jeromy Burnitz
$31 for Ted Lilly
$50 for Joel Pineiro 8-o

I can't figure out who did well, but I can already tell you in 5 seconds who did BAD.


Can someone explain to me these prices??

In short can someone explain to me how Lilly went for 31 and Pineiro went for 50!??!?! How could anyone in their right mind do that? :-P
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:54 pm

Basically they had too much money at the end of the draft and someone probably needed only 1 more guy.They had a max bid of 50 so the other owners drove up the price
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Postby pokerplaya » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:00 pm

SHOCKandAWE wrote:Basically they had too much money at the end of the draft and someone probably needed only 1 more guy.They had a max bid of 50 so the other owners drove up the price


Yeah, I firgured as much. I guess the better question would have been, how did they let that scenario happen!
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Postby matdemos » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:35 pm

No one bid Rounce up to $50 on Pineiro...he had one roster spot left to fill and at least $50 to spend, so he opened the bidding as high as he could...just an alternative to leaving cash in hand
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Postby bleach168 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:45 pm

pokerplaya wrote:
SHOCKandAWE wrote:Basically they had too much money at the end of the draft and someone probably needed only 1 more guy.They had a max bid of 50 so the other owners drove up the price


Yeah, I firgured as much. I guess the better question would have been, how did they let that scenario happen!


Incompetence.
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