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Am I overthinking? Contreras or Francis

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Am I overthinking? Contreras or Francis

Postby Rhino Tuff » Sat Mar 26, 2005 11:53 pm

Now that Francis is in the 3 hole in the Rox staff should I drop Contreras for the phenom or just wait and see if Jose has his head on straight?

I'm in a H2H points league with some aggressive Waiver Wire Whores out there, I think if this guy goes great guns he will go early... :-o
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Postby bost0n » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:20 am

An unproven lefty in lefty favored Coors who is pitching well in spring training
or
A pitcher proven to be relatively crappy, who throws righty in righty favored US Cellular. This pitcher is also has a 5.2 era and an abysmal 1.5ish whip in spring training. His k's are also down.

Contreras is turning at least 33. He doesnt look like hes getting better.

I'd go for Francis.

Rightys blast it out of US Cellular just as much as lefty's in Coors. Each perspective pitcher's talent is going to decide who is better, not where they are.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:28 am

I don't see either having any real value in all but the very deepest of leagues. Contreras just outright stinks and Francis is in Coors and at the very best would be a spot starter on the road for a fantasy squad.
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Postby bost0n » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:35 am

TheYanks04 wrote:I don't see either having any real value in all but the very deepest of leagues. Contreras just outright stinks and Francis is in Coors and at the very best would be a spot starter on the road for a fantasy squad.

Definitely, but you don't know the conditions in his league. If he has Contreras in the first place, it may be quite deep/WW may be very thin.
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:38 am

There just isn't much available on my waiver and I want to make sure I have plenty of talent before the season starts especially since I feel most vulnerable at starter...

My staff isn't the deepest:

A. Burnett
K. Woods
Z. Grienke
B. Webb
E. Bedard
W. Miller

It could work out especially if Woods is healthy and Miller comes back to form but thouse are some big IF's! :-o

Ishii
Meche
Redman
Robertson
Bush

entice anyone? I thought Francis looked the best out of a bad lot...
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 1:33 am

I am assuming that Woody Williams, H. Ramirez, J. Williams, John Thomson, Eaton, etc. types are all gone?

Frankly, if the best left is the lot you listed, I would be looking for a good MR for help as I do not feel a bench slot for any of those guys is warranted unless you play in an extremely deep league. You likely ill get more value out of a Gordon, Otsuka, or Donnelly than any of those SPs.
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Sun Mar 27, 2005 1:42 am

I am taking a shot with Francis this year. I got him for $1 so he could be a nice keeper but the first sign of struggle and he is going to get released from my squad
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:08 am

All the starters and all of those middle relievers are gone. Otsuka went in the fourth round in our draft, holds are worth 8 points. It seems crazy to most 5x5 loyalists but we like the format...

In our league people don't waste too many roster spots on back up positional players. Since we have no restrictions on SPs or RPs anything goes. General point of strategy is to pick up as many quality starters as possible while having three or four good relievers.

In a points league like this why gamble on a starter who only has one start versus a closer or middle man who could have five or six appearances? Unless the starter is Santana, Johnson, or Schmidt...

Guys with K's always win out because you get the point for a K.

Its a fun league that encourages an eye for talent an itchy trigger finger.

I decided that Francis was too much potential to lose out on.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:35 am

Yeah I do not think I would like a league where Otsuka is round 4 material, but to each his own I suppose.

If the points model works that way and makes Francis an OK pickup, then go for it.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:43 am

Contreras. IMHO, all mixed leagues 12 teams or more they will both only be marginally worth owning or on waivers several time throughout the year.

I pick Contreras as even though he is inconsistent and gets rocked alot he has been good throughout his career against Detroit whom he now pitches in their division. He can be a not too risky gamble as a 4th/5th fantasy starter against other weaker offenses as he gets a few very high K outings each year against them.

Neither is a steady or reliable option but Contreras has just barely shown to be a decent option a handfull of times a year.
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