Look at what he did last year with a bum shoulder and a slow start. Finished, what, third in MVP voting?
His age doesn't scare me, but the swirling steroid rumors do. One thing people forget about steroids is they can help keep you from breaking down over the wear-and-tear of the season. It's not just the big muscles.
Still, I peg him as a mid- to late-second rounder who will easily put up first-round worthy numbers if he plays all year. He is a beast.