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Wins: a stat worth predicting?

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Postby agchris02 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 9:43 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:Its just way too difficult to accurately predict them, so it should be one of the last things you use to judge a pitcher by, only as a tiebreaker.


i disagree with this statement -- if that was the case then you should be taking j vazquez before c pavano -- which virtually no one is. In leagues where wins get you points (h2h point leagues for example), wins often make the biggest differance (my league for instance gives 10 pts for a win, -5 for a loss, 1.5 I/P, and 1 pt per K, -.5BB, -1 ER) -- a pitcher could have a miserable 5 inning outing, giving up 5 or 6 ER's, 1K, but still get the win on a good team, netting you positive points on the day -- where as someone in ariz could pitch 7 innings, 8Ks, 2ER, and get the loss -- and both pitchers have the same value

In leagues where wins matter you HAVE to try to accurately project them,that aside, I go more on team strength than pitcher projections (so bump yankee, redsox, ranger, oriole pitchers, slide down diamondback, detriot pitchers)

its a hard stat to project, but one that you need to
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Postby KolbSaves » Sat Mar 26, 2005 9:49 pm

I bet you Detroit finishes with a better record than Baltimore.
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Postby fraquar » Sat Mar 26, 2005 11:31 pm

Wins are a byproduct of so many factors I can't see any accurate measurement to tally them.

As far as starting pitching goes, I look for the starters whose individual performance level consistently gives his team an opportunity to win. That IMO is all that I can reasonably expect. To go into any further detail would require me to accurately predict the following items as well:

1. Expected Runs/Game that the team will score for run support.
2. Entire relief staff production.
3. Entire fielding % for the team

Thats a lot of work to predict one stat.

No one in there right mind would have predicted Rogers would come anywhere close to 18 wins last year. - even if they had the actual year ending 2004 pitching stats to use to predict with (4.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.35 K/9). To do so would have also meant that they would have predicted that the Rangers would have one of the best relief staffs in the AL - playing 81 games in a hitters paradise.

This explains why he went undrafted in my mine and almost every other draft this year. Had we known this before the 2004 season started would we have drafted him then? I don't think so.
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Postby Cooner » Sat Mar 26, 2005 11:44 pm

i definitely predict wins, but I do downrate them in my VORP calculations. Once I've done the VORP rankings, I look at other stats and choose who I'm targeting based on a couple categories I value more than others- mostly K/BB and WHIP. I generally avoid the big K guys simply because I think they tend to go earlier than they're worth as the big K guys are the most well-known.

I tend to end up with boring pitching staffs, but they do just fine ;-D
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Postby baseballnewb » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:35 pm

Wins have a lot more controlling factors than just the team you are on. Your average innnings per appearance matters a lot as does the quality of your bullpen. I factor wins in but I don't go overboard. I avoided Pavano/Wright this year for instance because I think their stats will be terrible but they'll get good Wins.
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