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Bottom Tier Outfielder Draft Strategy

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Postby TheRawDAWG » Sat Mar 26, 2005 4:34 pm

mmdmaznn wrote:I did the same strategy in my draft and was pretty happy with it. Picked up Giles in the 4th round and got Jeter, Rolen and Ichiro early. Ended up with later picks of J. Drew and T. Hunter in the outfield with back-ups of A. Dunn(mainly-1B), Dye and Bradley. The hardest part of that strategy was having to take Giles while H. Matsui was still available (he went 2 picks later).


A.Dunn is a backup OF to Hunter and Drew?

As for the strategy, I don't like having a set strategy. It makes it difficult to capitalize on the value picks of guys falling.

Also, isn't Ichiro an OFer? If you took him early you're not really employing this strategy.
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Postby kingman2003 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 5:02 pm

if you do go this route, then let us know how it turns out...i'm interested.
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Postby Shock6822 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 5:19 pm

I actually tried this in a league...13 team roto with a couple extra cats...this is my roster:


C - J. Mauer
1B - D. Ortiz
2B - T. Iguchi
SS - J. Rollins
3B - M. Mora
IF - J. Morneau
LF - C. Lee
CF - C. Crisp
RF - J. Lane
OF - C. Monroe
Util - P. Feliz

SP - R. Johnson, R. Harden, Ol. Perez, Od. Perez, B. Penny, D. Davis, B Madritsch
RP - A. Benitez, C. Cordero, M. Adams, M. Batista, J. Tavarez, R. Madson (last 2 are for holds)


My OF is actually serviceable assuming Lane and Monroe pan out. I think I have really good pitching for a 13 team, and Ortiz/Mora/Rollins provide a decent infield.


Edit: I picked Lee in the 9th, Crisp 13th, Lane 14th, Monroe 19th. Remember it's a 13 teamer. I had 9th pick. The IF and OF are actual spots in our league, so no bench spots for my hitters.
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Postby warrick95 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 11:55 pm

I actually did this in my $30 entry fee 5X5 12 teamer league (MLB Universe). I really like my team, even though it's high risk/high reward.

C Lieberthal
1B Ortiz
2B Soriano
3B Glaus
SS Jeter
OF V. Wells
OF P. Wilson
OF Hidalgo
Util Sweeney
Util Burrell
Bench Floyd
Bench Dye
Bench Barmes (2B/SS qualification)

SP Sheets
SP Mulder
SP Smoltz
SP Od. Perez
SP Penny
SP J. Williams
RP F. Rodriguez
RP Ryan
RP Takatsu
RP M. Gonzalez

Slight differences were that I took a stud 1B instead of a stud 3B (I actually drafted Tex and traded him with Borowski and Hawk for Ryan and Ortiz). I waited on taking a catcher (I wanted Closser, but settled on Lieberthal eventually after a team took Closser as a #2 C). Some have Doc above Mulder on their cheat sheets, but I took Mulder over him. I was hoping for Doc to be available with my #8 pick, but he was taken in the late 7th. Ended up settling with John Smoltz as my #3 SP. I'm not overly happy with my starting SPs, but other than that, I love the team. I took K-Rod in the 6th, because I thought it was a tremendous value pick.

By the way, a bunch of the OF/UTIL players I took for this team are my hand-picked sleepers: Wilson, Hidalgo, Sweeney, Burrell, Floyd, Dye, and a high-value pick of Wells (not really a sleeper though). The reports on Troy Glaus have been encouraging, too.

To sum up, I think this is the best draft strategy out there. I used to go with a stud OF strategy (last two years), but I backed off from it. I only won last year because I was able to secure Marcus Giles off the WW (the team had serious DL problems) and trading Brian Giles for Miguel Tejada early on. Securing a top middle infield is the way to go, IMO, due to the larger talent dropoff. 2B, especially, is integral this year, IMO. SS has a few more top options (down to about Edgar Renteria or Jose Reyes).
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:06 am

Depends on how many OFS on your roster, but I generally do not like the scrub OF approach. It is a common strategy and it can indeed work. The problem is that it puts a LOT of pressure on your IF picks panning out and doing their job because your OFs will likely be break even at best compared to eveyone else.

The problem is that just like pitchers are move unreliable than hitters, I feel IFs (particularly middle IFs) are more unreliable than top tier OFs. Just look at Soriano and Boone and Renteria last year. All very high picks and all pretty much bad ones. The MIs are very unpredictable year to year and grabbing a Jeter or a Nomar over a Sheff or other top OF is a risky proposition that may or may not pan out. I like to grab the best/most valuable talent the first 8 or so rounds and worry about filling in the positions later. In theory, there is no difference over getting Manny for the OF and Guillen for short over getting Jeter for short and Floyd for the OF. It all comes down to who is liekly to perform nd where the risks lie.
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:13 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Depends on how many OFS on your roster, but I generally do not like the scrub OF approach. It is a common strategy and it can indeed work. The problem is that it puts a LOT of pressure on your IF picks panning out and doing their job because your OFs will likely be break even at best compared to eveyone else.

The problem is that just like pitchers are move unreliable than hitters, I feel IFs (particularly middle IFs) are more unreliable than top tier OFs. Just look at Soriano and Boone and Renteria last year. All very high picks and all pretty much bad ones. The MIs are very unpredictable year to year and grabbing a Jeter or a Nomar over a Sheff or other top OF is a risky proposition that may or may not pan out. I like to grab the best/most valuable talent the first 8 or so rounds and worry about filling in the positions later. In theory, there is no difference over getting Manny for the OF and Guillen for short over getting Jeter for short and Floyd for the OF. It all comes down to who is liekly to perform nd where the risks lie.


Your argument holds some weight, except...
Manny: ~late 1st/early 2nd
Guillen: ~7-8

Jeter: 3rd
Floyd: Late-teen

I think there's risk involved both ways. Look at the owners who took say, Magglio Ordonez or Jason Giambi relatively early last year. That would've been no different from an owner grabbing Marcus Giles. Most teams won't hit on every pick. You just have to do a reasonably good job of striking with good picks here or there and not totally sucking on a good amount.
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:17 am

I don't like this strategy this year, I personally think there is more depth in the infield than in a lot of other years. Of course 2nd base is it's usual dearth of talent but there are bargains to be had at SS and third this year. Plus I can never understand jumping up in the draft to grab a catcher. Get your stud outfielders early and pick off your Infield as you notice the pool slimming out. I've always been a proponet of finding the gem infielders but last year I grabbed M. Giles in the 2nd round and it kind of soured me to that, (I did alright by grabbing Brian Roberts off waivers last year.)

I'm also the guy that has been discussing the fact that there is some position scarcity in the OF this year so I was a little wary to let it slide...

I focused on Outfield, RPs (very valuable in our H2H pts leauge,) and I feel like I came away with a good squad...

C J. Buck
1B S. Green
2B C. Utley
SS K. Greene/C. Guillen
3B A. Beltre
DH T. Hafner
OF V. Guerrero
OF V. Wells
OF C. Patterson

P A.J. Burnett
P K. Woods
P. Z. Grienke
P. B. Webb
P. E. Gagne
P. F. Cordero
P. C. Cordero

Bench
Cuddyer
Hildalgo
J. Contreras
M. Batista
M. Gonzalez
W. Miller
E. Bedard
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:22 am

Those were examples and their draft slots will vary league to league. I have seen Guillen go as late as the 14th in some leagues...as early as round 8. I have seem Floyd go anywhere from round 14 to round 24. Either way, you do have to draft well. My argument is mainly that the risks of some of the MIs historuically seem to be a lot higher than the risks of most of the elite OFs (at least that is my opinion/feel of it). Nomar has gotten hurt 2 of the last 4 years. Boone imploded last season. So did Soriano and Renteria. O. Cabreara is Jekyl and Hyde...Angel Berroa was a diasatrous pick last season. THe number of elite OFs that burn people is far less though there are some (Like Sosa and G. Anderson last season).

I still think you draft best player available the first 8-10 rounds no matter what position and let the chips fall where they may. Just make sure you grab at least a couple fo top SPs in that range. If you bypass elite OFs for slightly less valuable $-wise IFs, you are sort of asking to get hurt.
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:39 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Those were examples and their draft slots will vary league to league. I have seen Guillen go as late as the 14th in some leagues...as early as round 8. I have seem Floyd go anywhere from round 14 to round 24. Either way, you do have to draft well. My argument is mainly that the risks of some of the MIs historuically seem to be a lot higher than the risks of most of the elite OFs (at least that is my opinion/feel of it). Nomar has gotten hurt 2 of the last 4 years. Boone imploded last season. So did Soriano and Renteria. O. Cabreara is Jekyl and Hyde...Angel Berroa was a diasatrous pick last season. THe number of elite OFs that burn people is far less though there are some (Like Sosa and G. Anderson last season).

I still think you draft best player available the first 8-10 rounds no matter what position and let the chips fall where they may. Just make sure you grab at least a couple fo top SPs in that range. If you bypass elite OFs for slightly less valuable $-wise IFs, you are sort of asking to get hurt.


The point is that I have not seen Manny go after Jeter in any league so far. Guillen has gone above Floyd in most leagues, too.

The thing is, I have already gone through and added a tad bit of $ to my IFs over OFs, because of position scarcity. Sure, you don't take say, Edgar Renteria over Gary Sheffield, but what you have to factor in is the GAP between players of the same position. Comparing raw stats between MIs and OFs is preposterous, as the OFs of a lower level will easier outproduce the top MIs.

I think you have begun to reach into what I call...good/bad picks.

Nomar Garciaparra=injury-prone player
Angel Berroa=huge breakout player...couldn't be really depended on to really get back to expectations again.

There are typical overvalued/undevalued players this year, as there normally always are. It's smart to take the undervalued ones and don't take the overvalued ones.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:59 am

No, no one is going to take Jeter over Manny...but they may take Arod over Vlad. Or Tejada over Beltran...or Chavez over Sheff etc. depending on the league. And then compensate with a decent pick in the later rounds inthe OF.

Replacement value is someting that has been written about by many. So good, some bad. Those going out of their way to bypass higher rated OFs for somewhat close in value IFs or fudging $ projections for scarcity sake to justify a pick of a $23 SS over a $26 OF for example are making a mistake imo if they do so in the early rounds.

Risk factors need to be factor in for injury obviously, but adjusting a player's return value because he is at a scarcer position can lead to the infamous "O. Cabrera in round 4 pick" because he is the "Last good SS on the board". An extreme example, but the only time position should come into the equation early is when two players are of the same value and injury risk...then you pick the player at the scarcer position.
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