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Postby Mugwump » Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:23 am

In the long term, who do you think has the most potential out of these young arms? How does Meyer stack up against Harden, Haren and Blanton?
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Postby Mugwump » Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:47 pm

Wanted to give this a bump!

Five years down the road, who will be performing better out of these OAKtown boys? Who has the highest ceiling?
I was in Los Angeles, and the team was playing in San Diego, but I didn't know it. I had taken LSD at noon. I thought it was an off-day. At 1pm, my girlfriend and trip partner looked at the paper and said, "Dock, you're pitching today!"
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Postby giants8307 » Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:41 pm

Mugwump wrote:Wanted to give this a bump!

Five years down the road, who will be performing better out of these OAKtown boys? Who has the highest ceiling?


A lot of reports i've read, including Baseball America's prospect mag, have Meyer being the most talented of the new group. I think he's up there with harden in terms of promise. For this season, though, I've got haren on my squad. i think he's got the best chance for 2005.
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Postby jellyroll » Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:50 pm

LBJackal wrote:
jellyroll wrote:Went to Spring Training last week and talked to a bunch of people. Sounds like Etherton is leading slightly over Yabu, but they want Meyer to start in AAA and take the 5th spot later.


It was between Etherton/Yabu before Monday's charades but now it looks like either Meyer or if he's sent down, Saarloos.


a big lol!! Things do change quickly in Spring Training. Good thing I got beers and sun to remember, as well as yestterday's baseball news.
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Postby Mugwump » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:57 pm

If Zito sticks around and regains form, which I think he will, that will be a nice rotation. Plus, having lefties in your rotation would be 'icing'. Zito has that Yoda-mentor thingy... maybe rub off on Meyer... Cy Young a few years away... (insert Homer Simpson gurgling noise).
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Postby RynMan » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:35 am

Meyer has been sent down. Between Etherton and Saarloos.
No1 should have been drafting Meyer anyway in a non-keeper.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri Apr 01, 2005 2:33 am

i posted this a few days ago on another fantasy board...thought it fit well here as well: Meyer has been sent down, but expect a July call up.

Following the "Little Three" as well as the rest of the rotation -- closely -- all offseason I have a few comments to add.

Haren right now seems to have the most fantasy value out of the "Little Three". Scouts are hyping his peripherals and his spring training #'s have been nothing less then stellar. He's older and has more major league experience than both Blanton and Meyer, (his ceiling may not be as high) but he does have the ability to put up some great #'s based off what he will cost.

Meyer's been struggling throughout spring training but does have the "highest" ceiling out of the three. He ripped through the minors with a k/9 over 10 and a 4.5 BB/K ratio, but his spring training struggles and comments about his mental make-up have left alot to be desired. His 5th spot on the rotation is in question, especially with Kirk Saarlos giving the front office no reason to start Meyer's arbitration clock. Saarlos opted out of off-season surgury and is taking advantage of that 5th rotation spot being open for grabs.

Blanton has pretty much solidified his spot as the #4 man on the rotation. He's been about "league average" so far this spring training with a ERA slightly above 4....whats more important is his command has been there, and he hasn't looked outmatched like Meyer. Zips actually projects blanton to have an ERA under 4 with 150IP and double digit win totals. with a k rate at about 6.

On to the "Big Two"

Harden's control problems make me modest on his ceiling. Everybody expects him to be a league ace but I see him more of a #2 type of guy (on the A rotation) with a mid 3 ERA at best. Everytime his K rate improves his era skyrockets. When he doesn't go for the K he walks less batters and is more successfull. How long it will take for him to develop into a Tim Hudson / Mark Mulder type beats me...but i dont ever see him being a top 5 fantasy pitcher ever. I expect an ERA this season between 3.50 and 4.0 with a k/9 between 7.5 - 8.0 and a whip in the high twenties 1.25 - 1.30

Bottom line im just more modest then alot of people seem to be when it comes to his ceiling. Mostly because of mediocre walk rates and control issues that have not progressed rapidly.

Alot of Zito's #'s last season had alot to do with bad luck. I posted a link with some great discussion comparing his LD% to previous seasons off success and a k rate which actually improved over the past....i expect Zito to bounce back strongly, somewhere in the middle of his cy young season in '02 and last season '04. He's still young and he seems to be more "focused" with his priorities straight being the "veteran" on the rotation. If spring training statistics mean anything to you, he's been really good thus far.

My predictions on who will have the most fantasy value in a 5x5 league come season end:

2005

1. Rich Harden
2. Zito
3. Haren
4. Blanton
5. Meyer

come 2006

1. Rich Harden
2. Barry Zito
3. Meyer
4. Haren
5. Blanton

2007

1. Dan Meyer
2. Rich Harden
3. Zito
4. Haren
5. Blanton
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