The new NL pitchers are great value.

[NZF]

A move for a pitcher to the NL = an increase in value,
and vice versa for the AL.

It's a logical analysis and there are many examples over the past few seasons to support this theory. The loss of the DH is obviously a major factor but not the only one. Pitcher familarity, ball park factors and lineups are also important.

Nearly every pitcher that has changed leagues in the past few seasons has followed this rule of thumb. Even Curt Schilling last season had a significant drop off in his K/9 ratios although every thing else stayed the same. On the other end of the scale, Joe Kennedy improved in Colorado.

I don't think enough people recognise this fact and adjust their rankings accordingly. Two great examples for and against this from last season were Roger Clemens and Javier Vazquez.

The best pitchers changing to the NL this season follows. The move to the NL should increase their value but coincidentally, all of them ended last season with question marks and are being undervalued come draft time.

NL

Pedro Martinez; I have him as a Top 3 pitcher this season. He's often been going in the third round and I've even seen him drop to the fourth. He's definitely a second rounder, excellent value.

Tim Hudson; has dropped further in drafts this season because his K/9 ratios are steadily declining. The move to Atlanta points to his K's increasing again this season.

Mark Mulder; because of his bad second half and health problems, he has also fallen a lot further in drafts than he should have. Should get plenty of run support and could if healthy, be in for a big year.

Javier Vazquez; couldn't handle the pressure in New York. Back to the NL now and he has fallen a long way in people's rankings.

Derek Lowe; way down on rankings sheets but all set for a bounce back season in LA.

Other lower end pitchers moving to the NL who can be picked up as 5th starters and could prove good value.

Jon Lieber - he'd be ranked higher but for the ball park he'll be going to.
Ramon Ortiz
Darrel May
Mark Redman

AL

Randy Johnson; the exception to the rule, although I expect his K's to drop. Still rated No. 1 or 2 in my book.

Kevin Millwood; another exception. His value couldn't be lower anyway.

Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Matt Clement. Paul Byrd, Wade Miller and David Wells. Buyer beware. These guys should not be over valued based on what they did in 2004.

Lower end starters moving to the AL.

Jose Lima
Danny Haren
Hideo Nomo
Casey Fossum

[bleach168]

I posted a study on this not too long ago. The findings showed that switching leagues on average reduced your ERA by 0.40 and WHIP by 0.06 if moving to the NL from the AL. The reverse is true if moving to the AL from the NL.

[Conner]

Very nice post.

Thanks for the specific suggestions.

[TheYanks04]

Won't matter either way with Fossum or Nomo...

Buyer beware with Mulder...something is not right there imo.

[NZF]

I posted a study on this not too long ago. The findings showed that switching leagues on average reduced your ERA by 0.40 and WHIP by 0.06 if moving to the NL from the AL. The reverse is true if moving to the AL from the NL.

Interesting. I don't know if your study included K/9 ratios but I would think they would increase significantly as well for guys going to the NL.

[agchris02]

Ive noticed this too, which is why ive got leiber moved up on my lists. However, Im still not sold on pedro with the mets, something just feels wrong about that situation, i may be wrong, but Ill let somoene else have him and draft another bat in round 3

[bleach168]

Here is the study from mlb.com,

Thinking that an observational look at the pitchers who changed leagues during the last few years wouldn't tell us much, I concocted a study of pitchers since 1990 who changed leagues between seasons.

It turned out the samples amounted to 453 pitchers moving from the NL to the AL, throwing a total of 36,355 IP the season before the move, and 32,845 IP the season after it.

A total of 464 pitchers made the reverse trip, moving to the AL from the NL. They threw 32,517 innings the year before the move, and 34,439 innings the year after.

Aye, I asks meself I do, trying to talk like a pirate, What do these ratios tell me that I don't already know? Not much, but they confirm that it's a good deal easier to pitch in the NL than the AL (with the rank and nasty DH rule, aargh). For further confirmation, let's look at the numbers:

Pitchers who moved from the NL to the AL saw their:

-- ERA rise from 4.39 to 4.83
-- Ratio rise from 12.65 to 13.19
-- WHIP rise from 1.41 to 1.47
-- K/9 rate drop from 6.4 to 6.1
-- BB/9 rate rise from 3.4 to 3.5


Meanwhile, pitchers who moved from the AL to the NL saw their:

-- ERA drop from 4.77 to 4.38
-- Ratio drop from 13.26 to 12.64
-- WHIP drop from 1.47 to 1.40
-- K/9 rate rise from 6.1 to 6.3
-- BB/9 rate drop from 3.6 to 3.4

Wondering if these changes affected starters and relievers similarly, I broke the samples down into pools of each. I defined a pitcher as a starter if more than 33 percent of his games came as starts.

The results:


IP ERA Ratio K/9 BB/9
N2A Starts Before 23,076 4.42 12.43 6.1 3.1
N2A Starts After 20,306 4.94 13.13 5.6 3.2

N2A Relief Before 13,279 4.34 13.03 6.9 3.9
N2A Relief After 2,459 4.65 13.29 6.8 4.1

A2N Starts Before 19,346 4.88 13.21 5.7 3.3
A2N Starts After 20,512 4.47 12.48 5.9 3.2

A2N Relief Before 13,171 4.59 13.35 6.6 3.9
A2N Relief After 13,546 4.29 12.92 7.0 3.8Here are the rates of difference for each stat:


ERA Ratio K/9 BB/9
A2N Over -9% -4% +4% -4%
A2N Start -10% -5% +8% -5%
A2N Relief -7% -2% +2% -3%

N2A Over +9% +5% -4% +4%
N2A Start +9% +6% -3% +6%
N2A Relief +7% +3% -3% -2%These are pretty significant samples, but all these charts don't mean that a pitcher can't improve after moving to the AL from the NL. But even if he does it's going to have to be a better than a nine percent improvement for his actual ERA to get better.

In AL- or NL-only leagues this isn't much of a problem, but when making projections you don't want to overestimate Carl Pavano's ERA this year. If he were to pitch just as well as last year, his ERA this year will be about 3.35. And when you play a mixed-league game, the differences are crucial. If pitchers were sprinters, it's as if the NL pitchers are in a 100-meter dash starting two steps ahead of the AL pitchers.

Taking this into account can be a nice little edge to have on draft day.

[eftda]

Great find

I am wondering if someone will be able to conduct the same experiment come November 2005?

[NZF]

I started this thread back in March to look at what I perceived as a marked difference in pitching between the 2 leagues.

To date this season, 10 of the top 11 SP's in the majors in ERA pitch in the NL. Only 4 of the 13 SP's with a Whip under 1.15 and just 4 of the Top 20 strikeout pitchers this season are from the AL.

Not only do the NL pitchers not have to face the DH but they get to pitch against a lot of poor teams with struggling offenses.

Given the numbers this season of guys like Clemens, Pettitte, Carpenter, Pedro, Patterson, Willis etc against those of Randy Johnson, Schilling, Pavano, Clement, Mussina etc, it's not hard to see which league pitchers should be targeted in drafts in 2006.

It also shows what an absolute stud a guy like Roy Halladay is when he's healthy.

[RynMan]

Given the numbers this season of guys like Clemens, Pettitte, Carpenter, Pedro, Patterson, Willis etc against those of Randy Johnson, Schilling, Pavano, Clement, Mussina etc, it's not hard to see which league pitchers should be targeted in drafts in 2006.

It also shows what an absolute stud a guy like Roy Halladay is when he's healthy.

Agreed. NL pitchers should definately carry some extra thought on draft day.

As for Halladay....not only is he in the AL, he is in the hardest hitting division. Stud.