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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Mar 18, 2005 3:44 pm

stumpak wrote:That's a completely wrong statement. Donnelly has had a higher K rate than Shields last year and every year, by a pretty large margin. He is better across the board--far better ratios, more Ks and a better chance to vulture saves and wins.


A better K rate yes but not more Ks. Last year Donnelly 56 K and Shields 109, 2003 Donnell 79 Ks and Shields 111 K.

So Donnelly does not get you more Ks. Shields does because he pitches more innings.

Also Shields is a much better option to vulture wins than Donnelly. Shields has 18 wins over the last 3 years, Donnelly has 8. Shields will also be a spot starter and may make it into the rotation this year. Shields will have about 5 more wins than Donnelly this year.
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Postby stumpak » Fri Mar 18, 2005 3:55 pm

Donnelly was out half the year, so totals are not a fair comparison in terms of Ks. In terms of Ws, ditto, plus as you point out Shields has started more than a few games over the pasr few years.

And Shields is a spot starter for a reason--he is crappy as a starting pitcher. I would not put him in my line-up for a spot start. The more he starts the worse his ratios will be. For purely MR duties, set-up guys like Donnelly typically get more wins than middle relief guys, although anytime you talk RPs there is wide variance due to the sample size.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Mar 18, 2005 4:12 pm

stumpak wrote:Donnelly was out half the year, so totals are not a fair comparison in terms of Ks. In terms of Ws, ditto, plus as you point out Shields has started more than a few games over the pasr few years.

And Shields is a spot starter for a reason--he is crappy as a starting pitcher. I would not put him in my line-up for a spot start. The more he starts the worse his ratios will be. For purely MR duties, set-up guys like Donnelly typically get more wins than middle relief guys, although anytime you talk RPs there is wide variance due to the sample size.


I'm not arguing ratios or who is the better pitcher. I am simply telling you that you are wrong when you said that Donnelly gets

more Ks and a better chance to vulture saves and wins.


Donnelly's career season high in Ks is 79.

Shields has had seasons of 109 and 111 Ks.

Shields gets more Ks simply because he pitches more innings than Donnelly. Shields will pitch more innings than Donnelly this year too.

You are also wrong about the wins - Shields is a much better option for wins than Donnelly.

If you are asking me who I would rather have - it's Donnelly by a long shot because of the ratios and he puts out better numbers per IP and all of my leagues have IP limits.

But you are still wrong about Donnelly being better to K and win totals.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 18, 2005 7:12 pm

stumpak wrote:Donnelly was out half the year, so totals are not a fair comparison in terms of Ks. In terms of Ws, ditto, plus as you point out Shields has started more than a few games over the pasr few years.

And Shields is a spot starter for a reason--he is crappy as a starting pitcher. I would not put him in my line-up for a spot start. The more he starts the worse his ratios will be. For purely MR duties, set-up guys like Donnelly typically get more wins than middle relief guys, although anytime you talk RPs there is wide variance due to the sample size.


You're missing a keey point. Donnelly is out because he's injury prone. He had surgery in both 2003 and 2004. Shields is more durable, and that's why he can pitch twice as many innings as Donnelly.

The question HAS to consider playing time, because is you pick Shields, you get 100 IP of Shields, while if you pick Donelly, you get 40 IP of Donnelly and 60 IP of the next best pitcher off the waiver wire.
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Postby Surfs up » Fri Mar 18, 2005 10:48 pm

I wouldn't call getting a broken nose injury prone. If he had trouble pulling hamstrings or shoulder problems yes. I like Donnelly to. He is the set up man this year and word has it because Rodriguez pitched winter ball the Angels will give him lots of time off early in the season.Not to over work him. Enter B. Donnelly. Put the save in the books.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Mar 18, 2005 10:57 pm

I seem to recall reading sometime somewhere the Angels saying that they prefer not to use Donnelly as a closer and may keep him as a set up guy if something goes wrong with K-Rod.

I did a quick Google but couldn't find it. Am I dreaming this up?

Can anybody help me out with this?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 18, 2005 11:08 pm

Surfs up wrote:I wouldn't call getting a broken nose injury prone. If he had trouble pulling hamstrings or shoulder problems yes. I like Donnelly to. He is the set up man this year and word has it because Rodriguez pitched winter ball the Angels will give him lots of time off early in the season.Not to over work him. Enter B. Donnelly. Put the save in the books.


I'm not simply talking about last year. He's never pitched more than 75 innings, and twice has been below 50 innings. This off-season, he had to have another surgery on his nose. His return to pitching last year was complicated by right elbow tendinitis. he was ready to go from the nose injury in early May, but his elbow problems flared up during minor league rehab and extended his DL time from early May until June 17th. That elbow was operated on during the off-season of 2003 (and a medial meniscus tear was repaired at the same time).

And remember, Donnelly is 33, while Shields is 29.
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Postby Surfs up » Sat Mar 19, 2005 12:25 am

Roger Clemens is 41-42 What does age have to do with it? Guess we all have our own opinions. Thats what makes this a fun site to visit and post questions and reply to them.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 19, 2005 12:51 am

Surfs up wrote:Roger Clemens is 41-42 What does age have to do with it? Guess we all have our own opinions. Thats what makes this a fun site to visit and post questions and reply to them.



What does age have to do with it?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=1658

In addition, it's not just that older pitches get injured more, it's that pitchers with past histories of injury, like Donnelly, get injured more.

Do you really believe that older pitchers with a history of injury are LESS likely to suffer more injuries?
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Postby Pokeyouindaeye » Sat Mar 19, 2005 1:25 pm

I agree that BD maybe a tad injury prone, but last year he got nailed in the nose by a pop up fly, which seems more like a freak accident than anything else...

I agree with the K rate statement as well, it's almost like Roy Halladay back in his Cy Young year. The dude got 200+ K's, but he didn't strikeout people at the same rate other elite pitchers did. Therefore, shields is more likely to get more K's than BD.
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