Q wrote:Exactly, "next in line" equals holds. You want to get the best pitchers of "next in line."
Those rotochamps projections are really off for who will actually get a good number of holds. K-Rod gets 27 as the Angels primary setup man last year. This year they project just 7 for the new primary setup man in Anaheim with close to K-Rod's skills? There are many other omissions on that list too.
Not necessarily. Next in line means the guy likely to close if the closer goes down. That can be the primary set-up guy, but it isn't not always so. In addition, many times the LOOGY (like Ray King or JC Romero) actually gets more holds than the primary set-up guy.
I don't think you can put Donnelly above Shields in the "primary" set up role at this point. Shields is younger and has proven much more durable than Donnelly who had surgery in both 2003 and 2004. I see no reason why a reasonable projection might project further injury, leaving Shields as the unchallenged righty set upman.
Q wrote:Well they contradict themselves with Scott Shields in that projection. They Project that he will pitch 119 innings. To pitch that many innings that means the pitchers is a spot starter for injured pitchers and a long reliever. They do not get holds. Donnelly is the setup man in Anaheim. K-Rod, Shields and Donnelly combined for 49 holds last year while this year they have Shields and Donnelly getting just 34.
Last year Shields appeared in 60 games and pitched 105 innings without starting a single one. Many teams are starting to look at guys like Torres and Shields as possible 1-2 inning guys who can make 75+ appearances and rack up over 100 innings. That's the way many top relievers were used back in the 1970s. Go look at the IP for guys like Tekulve or Fingers. The current usage of relievers is ass backwards so many ways that any team that reduced the number of relievers used and increased the numbers of innings pitched by their best relievers would gain at least 2 or 3 games in the standings.
BTW, they also project Gregg and Yan getting about 20 holds together, so that accounts for the missing ones.
Q wrote:This was recently discussed in another thread, here was my evaluation...
Here are the leaders from last year and how I think they will do this year:
Gordon, Tom NYY 36: He will get a good amount of holds again but I think it will be more around the high 20s. His ERA will also be in the mid 3s as he had a very lucky year with hit percentages and a much lower walk rate than normal. Otsuka, Akinori SD 34: A repeat is expected here with great numbers across the board. King, Ray STL 32: The St. Louis pitching staff and bullpen will not have nearly the same luck with hit percentage and strand rate as they did last year. Especially now that Renteria's range is gone. He should record around 20 but with less spactacular numbers. Reitsma, Chris ATL 31: Another expected repeat as he is the top setup man with good skills. Mota, Guillermo FLA 30: Became the closer, so unless they trade for someone else or he gets knocked down do not expect any. Torres, Salomon PIT 30: Mike Gonzalez was the primary setup man by the end of the year. Don't expect Torres to get much more than 10 as he does not have the primary job or that great of a skill set. Cormier, Rheal PHI 28: He will get a decent amount but most of his holds were recorded when Wagner was out and Worrell was the closer. When Wagner is healthy Worrell is the primary setup man. Linebrink, Scott SD 28: A repeat here is also likely. Good skill set and primary setup man. Jones, Todd FLA 27: Jones had an abnormally good year but there is no indication that he will hold on to the setup job or perform at a good level. Rodriguez, Francisco 27: Another case of being promoted to the closer.
As for this year the top holds pitchers (setup men) are definately Mike Gonzalez, Aknori Otsuka, LaTroy Hawkins, Brendan Donnelly, Scott Linebrink, Rafeal Betancourt, David Riske, Tom Gordon and Chris Reitsma in that order. Gonzalez is the guy you would probably want to target the most since he has the best stuff and could very easily become the closer soon. You want to look for guys that have ridiculous skill sets and all but Linebrink and Reitsma from that list have great skill sets, especially Gonzalez and Batencourt. Linebrink and Reitsma have good skill sets but they are high up because they will get the majority of the teams holds. These are the type of guys that get closers jobs when the closer faulters so their value is even higher.
I took Gonzalez in round 12 of a league with Holds as a category because theorectially holds are just as valuable as saves but they are easier to find and thats why setup men go later.
Why is Rincon not on this years list? I have him as my 4th best bet behind Otsuka Gordon and Gonzalez
Yeah, Juan Rincon, Crain and Romeron on the Twins belong here. Marte and Hemanson for the Sox deserve notice, as do Ayala and Eischen on the Nats, Kline and Reed on the Orioles, Calero and Rincon on the A's, Jamie Walker and Urbina on the Tigers, Worrell on the Phils and Alfonseca on the Marlins.
That was the top list from last year. And then I made my list for this year. Rincon should get a good amount too and should be up there, you are correct.
Thanks to everyone for the new light shed on the Anaheim situation. Im going to write an article on holds and I have changed some of my opinions and will use your input in writing it and will post it on my site in a few weeks.
This is the reason that I like getting a lot of great setup men that could potentially become the closer. Once they do you have another closer and it allows you to trade one. Then you can improve other parts of your team and get a setup man in return or find another in FA.