Kelly Gruber wrote:
But, it is possible, and even you cannot argue with that.
I'm not sure why you would even say that....I already said it's possible, long before you did.
It's also "possible" that he could get hit by a truck tomorrow, in which case it'd be pretty silly to draft him. That doesn't mean it should be expected, or even considered a real likely possibility.
So, I guess we are now more or less in agreement that it is unlikely but possible for Ichiro to repeat last year's numbers. If you deny that then your argument makes no sense.
Well, whether or not I agree with that really has nothing to do with my argument...but, yea. Whatever...It's possible.
If you'd rather change the topic of the discussion to whether or not it's "possible" that Ichiro will hit .370 again, and ignore everything else I said...that's fine. You win.
Like I said before, if you don't like his chances, then don't draft him. It's as simple as that. If everybody valued players the same then there would almost be no point in playing fantasy sports.
And I hope you do. Let me know how it works out, 7 months from now.
And by the way (because you seem to have a hard time understanding this)....I don't think it's impossible for him to hit .350 or something. but I do think it would be suprising.
And, when you think about it, really...A guy who hits .310, with 35 steals and 110 runs scored really isn't too shabby. It's not exactly as if I'm saying he's garbage, or anything...
Your point is that the only explanation for the huge increase is luck, because they were so far away from career numbers. But, did you ever think it is possible that he just started doing something a little different? Maybe he tweaked his game such that 46% or whatever is his new norm and so his old numbers no longer have relevance.
Are you saying that you expect him to hit somewhere around .420 next year, because he's a new hitter and all his previous stats are irrelevant?
That's a pretty lofty prediction...
I say .310, you say .420.