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The Most Underrated player in baseball is....

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:46 am

Yes 46% is high, but why break the season down into segments? It gets less accurate as you do. Over the season, he had a 40% hit rate. Not all that far off his career total, but definately enough to indicate he's due for a decline.
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:54 am

LBJackal wrote:Yes 46% is high, but why break the season down into segments? It gets less accurate as you do. Over the season, he had a 40% hit rate. Not all that far off his career total, but definately enough to indicate he's due for a decline.


If the difference was 38-42 , or something...and his previous two seasons hadnt been so close to the first half...then it wouldn't matter.

But, when one half of a season is so incredibly out of the ordinary...I don't think there's any sensible reason to not make note of it....especially when it correlates to a huge fluctuation with another stat that's directly related to it.

Like you said....stats get less accurate when you shorten the sample size. .321 in 2002, .312 in 2003 and .315 in the first half of 2004. That's two and a half years. Even if you think that no luck was involved in his .420 in the last half of last season...It still shouldn't be seen as anything more than a fluke.
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Postby Kingctb27 » Thu Mar 17, 2005 2:32 am

My vote would have to go with Jose Mesa
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Postby Kelly Gruber » Thu Mar 17, 2005 2:47 am

You can infer that luck may have helped him, but you cannot conclusively say that that was the cause of the increase in hits/BIP.

It is possible as was stated earlier that his skill caused more BIP to becomes hits. Maybe he was hitting them in better locations. Maybe he was hitting them harder. Maybe he was running faster. It may be any or all of those examples, or even more.

Your point is that the only explanation for the huge increase is luck, because they were so far away from career numbers. But, did you ever think it is possible that he just started doing something a little different? Maybe he tweaked his game such that 46% or whatever is his new norm and so his old numbers no longer have relevance.

You say that he will not hit .370 this year. Well, he just did it last year. He has proven that he can do it, and it is therefore not impossible for him to do it again.

And .310 is a ridiculous prediction for a guy like Ichiro. He has proven over his career that he is much better than that.
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:01 am

Kelly Gruber wrote:You can infer that luck may have helped him, but you cannot conclusively say that that was the cause of the increase in hits/BIP.

It is possible as was stated earlier that his skill caused more BIP to becomes hits. Maybe he was hitting them in better locations. Maybe he was hitting them harder. Maybe he was running faster. It may be any or all of those examples, or even more.

Your point is that the only explanation for the huge increase is luck, because they were so far away from career numbers. But, did you ever think it is possible that he just started doing something a little different? Maybe he tweaked his game such that 46% or whatever is his new norm and so his old numbers no longer have relevance.


No offense, but it's quite clear that you don't have any kind of decent understanding of how these kinds of things work....

It's incredibly unlikely that he'll start start having 46% of all his balls in play become hits from now on. His "normal" 34-36 percent is incredibly more likely....and it's a huge difference.

You say that he will not hit .370 this year. Well, he just did it last year. He has proven that he can do it, and it is therefore not impossible for him to do it again.


Here's something I said earlier...apparently, you missed it:

"I'm not saying it's impossible for him to hit .350...but it's just not likely. He didn't come anywhere close to that in the two years before last season, and he shouldn't have done it last year, either."


And .310 is a ridiculous prediction for a guy like Ichiro. He has proven over his career that he is much better than that.


.321 in 2002, .312 in 2003. .315 in the first half of last year.

How many times do I have to point that out? That's two and a half years of consistently being at around .310-.320....

"About .310" is absolutely not a ridiculous prediction.
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Postby Kelly Gruber » Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:27 am

Whatever man, don't draft him.

My main point is that when analyzing a player, trends only do so much. Things change. Sure, you can gain some understanding of a player by looking at his history, but that does not prove conclusively what will happen in the future.

Before you said that he will not hit .370 this season and then you changed your wording to "unlikely." I also agree, due to your analysis, that it is unlikely that he will do that again.

But, it is possible, and even you cannot argue with that.

So, I guess we are now more or less in agreement that it is unlikely but possible for Ichiro to repeat last year's numbers. If you deny that then your argument makes no sense.

Like I said before, if you don't like his chances, then don't draft him. It's as simple as that. If everybody valued players the same then there would almost be no point in playing fantasy sports.
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:41 am

Kelly Gruber wrote:
But, it is possible, and even you cannot argue with that.


I'm not sure why you would even say that....I already said it's possible, long before you did.

It's also "possible" that he could get hit by a truck tomorrow, in which case it'd be pretty silly to draft him. That doesn't mean it should be expected, or even considered a real likely possibility.

So, I guess we are now more or less in agreement that it is unlikely but possible for Ichiro to repeat last year's numbers. If you deny that then your argument makes no sense.


Well, whether or not I agree with that really has nothing to do with my argument...but, yea. Whatever...It's possible.

If you'd rather change the topic of the discussion to whether or not it's "possible" that Ichiro will hit .370 again, and ignore everything else I said...that's fine. You win.

It's possible.

Like I said before, if you don't like his chances, then don't draft him. It's as simple as that. If everybody valued players the same then there would almost be no point in playing fantasy sports.


I won't draft him...

And I hope you do. Let me know how it works out, 7 months from now.



And by the way (because you seem to have a hard time understanding this)....I don't think it's impossible for him to hit .350 or something. but I do think it would be suprising.

And, when you think about it, really...A guy who hits .310, with 35 steals and 110 runs scored really isn't too shabby. It's not exactly as if I'm saying he's garbage, or anything...


P.S.

Your point is that the only explanation for the huge increase is luck, because they were so far away from career numbers. But, did you ever think it is possible that he just started doing something a little different? Maybe he tweaked his game such that 46% or whatever is his new norm and so his old numbers no longer have relevance.



Are you saying that you expect him to hit somewhere around .420 next year, because he's a new hitter and all his previous stats are irrelevant?

That's a pretty lofty prediction...

I say .310, you say .420.

We'll see....
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Postby Kelly Gruber » Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:51 am

I like arguments that end in "we'll see." It means we both respect eachother's opinions, and although we both think we are right, we will let time and evidence decide.

Btw, how do you quote like that, part by part?
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:57 am

Kelly Gruber wrote:I like arguments that end in "we'll see." It means we both respect eachother's opinions, and although we both think we are right, we will let time and evidence decide.


It's really the only way things like this can be decided.

I haven't really played fantasy baseball for the last two years, so I haven't been keeping up with the rest of the league quite as much as I have this offseason.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing how a lot of different guys do this year.

Btw, how do you quote like that, part by part?


just stick something in between a [qu0te] and a [/qu0te] and it gets put in it's own box (just make sure you actually spell quote with all letters). The first one "opens" the quote box, and the second one (with the slash) "closes" the quote box. If I had spelled quote right, "and a" would've been in a quote box.
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Postby nikku88 » Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:58 am

Conner wrote:That's a pretty lofty prediction...

I say .310, you say .420.

We'll see....


There's a lot of space between those numbers. I don't see Ichiro having his worst professional season this year.
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