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The Most Underrated player in baseball is....

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Postby curious_george_43545 » Thu Mar 17, 2005 12:36 am

While he did obviously get lucky last year, I wouldn't expect .310 ....more about .340-.350
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 12:46 am

The Jury wrote:
Conner wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
Transmogrifier wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
The Miner Part 2 wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Rowand, Chavez and Carlos Lee are all overrated players.

Ichiro, Beltre and, come to think of it, most of the Mariners lineup does not get the respect that it deserves.


yea the guy who leads baseball in all-star game voting every year, wins the mvp as a rookie and sets the all-time hits in a season record is definetly underated.


I don't know if you are trying to be funny but the question was directed to fantasy baseball. I have seen a lot of rankings and drafts where Ichiro does not get taken in the first round.


This is because Ichiro is a not a first rounder, Mook. He's not worth it. He won't hit .370 again, that's for sure. I think he's overrated.


Ohh Trans, no you too.

This is how Ichiro gets underrated.

In a points league Ichiro may lose some value but in what universe is Ichiro not a first rounder in roto?

The highest BA with the most AB, great steals, will lead the league this year in runs scored. He will be a top 3 hitter this year.


It's silly to proclaim Ichiro as having the "highest batting average" this year.

Last year, he hit .315 in the first half. In the second half, he hit .423.

So, I guess you'd say..."Well that shows you how great he is".

Not really.

In the second half of last year, 46% of every ball he put in play ended up being a hit. That's an incredible amount of luck. The league average is 30%.

I suppose you'll say..."Well, he's fast, so that's why he can get more hits on infielders bobbling balls and whatnot".

Not really.

In the first have, 34% of his balls in play ended in a hits, and in 2003, 33%. The 46% in the second half last year was simply an incredible amount of luck, which is incredibly unlikely to happen again. Carl Crawford's percentages (just for comparison to another speedy guy) have been 33%, 33%, and 33% in his 3 seasons with the Devil Rays. It's usually a pretty darn consistent stat.

Ichiro is about a .300 hitter. Not much more....Don't let his 2004 second half fool you.


With respect, I disagree with you. Ichiro is definitely better than a .300 hitter.

While your provided numbers are acceptable and show that likely have done some research and are not just blabbering off the top of your head, I do not agree that they support your case to much of an extent.

Ichiro makes a career of making the best possible contact that he can on the pitches that the swings at.

Maybe a better stat if you can acquire it is the "% of balls put in play that result in hits" for career .300 hitters. I would expect that value to be significantly higher than the 30% of the MLB universe, and luck would likely be only a small factor.


I aknowledged that speedy guys like Ichiro will usually have a hit rate a little better than the "normal" 30%.

46% isn't anywhere near "a little".


And no...being a better hitter does not lead to having more balls in play lead to hits. I am absolutely not the first person to use this stat....it's been studied by all kinds of people, and it's been pretty much proven to be incredibly consistent.



I'm not saying it's impossible for him to hit .350...but it's just not likely. He didn't come anywhere close to that in the two years before last season, and he shouldn't have done it last year, either. .310-.315 is what I'd realistically expect.
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Postby nikku88 » Thu Mar 17, 2005 12:55 am

The reason Ichiro hit .312 in 2003 is because he hit .259 in the 2nd half. He badly slumped then.
He also hit .255 in April last year, bringing down his 1st half numbers. You can't just ignore one half while stating the other is more accurate.
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Postby Tavish » Thu Mar 17, 2005 12:59 am

Conner wrote:And no...being a better hitter does not lead to having more balls in play lead to hits.


I somewhat on the same page as you until this. That is absolutely incorrect. You can compare a player's BIP BA to his past history to find major deviances that could be attributed to more luck (like Ichiro's second half), but better hitters without a doubt have better control over the amount of hits generated on balls in play.
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:02 am

nikku88 wrote:The reason Ichiro hit .312 in 2003 is because he hit .259 in the 2nd half. He badly slumped then.
He also hit .255 in April last year, bringing down his 1st half numbers. You can't just ignore one half while stating the other is more accurate.


In his last three seasons, he's hit about .315 for 2 and a half of them...then .420 for the last half of the last one. And in that last half of the last one, he was one of the luckiest guys ever on balls put into play, which is generally a very consistent stat.

That's all I'm saying. If you want to ignore it and expect him to hit .360....go ahead. Doesn't really bother me one bit.


But, I'm sure there will be at least a couple of people who will look at those numbers and understand that they mean a whole heck of a lot. I know, because I'm one of them.
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Postby curious_george_43545 » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:02 am

The more you put the ball in play, the better the chance you have of more hits ;-D
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:06 am

Hit rate is a poor, poor stat to use for hitters. It can be controlled very easily. For pitchers, not as much, but hitters can control it by being fast, being left handed (shorter route to 1B), not swingin for the fences, etc. Ichiro's career hit rate is .364. Last year it was .401. Yeah, it was a lot higher than his career numbers, but being anywhere around .370 should be no surprise for him (hit rate, not BA).

But even with all that... Ichiro is not a first rounder. He won't hit .372, not even close. If he hits around .336 then he'll be ranked around #13. I could see a late first round pick being used on him if you're thinking of going after Dunn or Pods later on and want to neutralize the BA's, but on straight value he's about 13th.
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:10 am

Tavish wrote:
Conner wrote:And no...being a better hitter does not lead to having more balls in play lead to hits.


I somewhat on the same page as you until this. That is absolutely incorrect. You can compare a player's BIP BA to his past history to find major deviances that could be attributed to more luck (like Ichiro's second half), but better hitters without a doubt have better control over the amount of hits generated on balls in play.

You're right.

I didn't mean to make it sound like there's absolutely no difference.

But the difference is relatively small....compared to Ichiro's 46% in the second half of last year. Especially considering Ichiro has established a consistent rate of about 34-35%, the 46% just has absolutely nothing to do with him being a good hitter.

Guys like Pujols, Manny, A-Rod and Beltran are consistently around 31-34%, by the way. Certainly a bit above the normal 30%...but no 46%.
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Postby Conner » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:17 am

LBJackal wrote: Ichiro's career hit rate is .364. Last year it was .401. Yeah, it was a lot higher than his career numbers, but being anywhere around .370 should be no surprise for him (hit rate, not BA).

Considering it was 46% in the second half, I don't think it's very smart to just look at the overall season number. His hit rates have been 37, 35, 34 and then 33 in the first half of 2004, by the way. If you're going to compare last year against his career average...you really shouldn't figure in that second half into the average, because it obviously skews the results.

(EDIT: Looking at those declining hit rates, I don't think we should dismiss the argument that he's also losing footspeed. His infield hit% has been in decline over the last few years, as well)

And no...I don't think hit rate is a perfect stat. But after a guy has been in the major leagues for a while, he most certainly does develop a consistent hit rate, especially while still in their prime. Like I said...Guys like Pujols, Manny, A-Rod and Beltran are consistently around 31-34%. A huge difference most certainly should be used as an indicator of future performance. In this case, 46% can absolutely be viewed as a "huge difference".


The fact of the matter is....he hit about .315 from 2002 through the first half of 2004...then .420 for one half of a season.

Even if you think that the hit rate is a crazy coincedence....that second half, which skewed his overall numbers, should be viewed as a fluke. I happen to think that the incredible fluctiation in his hit rate was obviously a huge part of that.
Last edited by Conner on Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:27 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby baseballnewb » Thu Mar 17, 2005 1:17 am

Arod ok - but Chavez, Rolen and Blalock putting up similar numbers to Beltre??

This is why Beltre is underrated.


He moved from a neutral HR park to an anti-HR park. He moved leagues and he put up numbers well above anything else he has put up in the past. At the very least that makes him a huge wildcard for what kind of stats he'll put up this year. Furthermore if sexson goes down with an injury and reed does not pan out thats not a very strong lineup. He also has looming injury risks that will be an issue the rest of his career, its not something fixable. I'll stand by my convictions, I'll take blalock and chavez who are sure things to produce very solid numbers if not numbers that compare to beltre's ceiling in Seattle rather than taking the risk on beltre himself.
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