Spartans Rule wrote:
brandnew wrote:Stop bashing Hampton, check out his 2nd Half numbers.
33 K, 25 BB in 72 IP. Not impressed. The difference in his two halves was mostly luck on balls hit in play.
Even if he hit your projections, which are pretty close to his absolute upside, he'd still be a middle of the pack starter.
The difference in his two halves was not luck on balls put into play. It was effective location of his sinker. He walked 48 batters in 91 IP, and 30 batters in 99 IP in the second half in '03. He gave up the same amount of hits in the first and second half.
Last year, his BB rate and HR rates dropped in the second half significantly, and his success was locating his sinkerball. It wasn't luck on balls hit into play. In the first half, he was leaving balls up in the zone. The second half, he was locating his pitches effectively, especially his sinker, making hitters knock into the ground.
Luck usually doesn't extend over periods of 75+ IP..
I'm not saying you should draft Hampton as your ace. I'm saying that, in the 22nd Round, he'll be a very nice addition to your team, as a 6th or 7th starter. Those projections are around on par with a pitcher like Jason Marquis, and he's going a lot earlier.