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Millwood, Hampton, or Kazmir??

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Postby Conner » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:02 am

brandnew wrote:In the 22nd Round, who else are you going to grab?

One thing I've learned is to never doubt Leo.


Uhhh....Never?

Why has Hampton been so stinky the past two years under Leo?
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Postby Spartans Rule » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:06 am

brandnew wrote:Stop bashing Hampton, check out his 2nd Half numbers.


33 K, 25 BB in 72 IP. Not impressed. The difference in his two halves was mostly luck on balls hit in play.

Even if he hit your projections, which are pretty close to his absolute upside, he'd still be a middle of the pack starter.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:07 am

Coor's effect?

Hampton has always been a little shaky to adapt to Leo's teaching. When he runs into trouble, at the beginning of the year, he forgets the things that bring him success.

Like I said, check out his 2nd Half numbers the past two years. I'm just stating what I firmly believe he's capable of, and what he'll do this year.
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Postby Spartans Rule » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:07 am

brandnew wrote:In the 22nd Round, who else are you going to grab?


Maybe Millwood or Kazmir?
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:08 am

Spartans Rule wrote:
brandnew wrote:Stop bashing Hampton, check out his 2nd Half numbers.


33 K, 25 BB in 72 IP. Not impressed. The difference in his two halves was mostly luck on balls hit in play.


It's nice to see other people noticing these things. 33/25 K/BB is really bad. This is the same mirage Horacio Ramirez pulled at the start of the year.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:15 am

Spartans Rule wrote:
brandnew wrote:Stop bashing Hampton, check out his 2nd Half numbers.


33 K, 25 BB in 72 IP. Not impressed. The difference in his two halves was mostly luck on balls hit in play.

Even if he hit your projections, which are pretty close to his absolute upside, he'd still be a middle of the pack starter.


The difference in his two halves was not luck on balls put into play. It was effective location of his sinker. He walked 48 batters in 91 IP, and 30 batters in 99 IP in the second half in '03. He gave up the same amount of hits in the first and second half.

Last year, his BB rate and HR rates dropped in the second half significantly, and his success was locating his sinkerball. It wasn't luck on balls hit into play. In the first half, he was leaving balls up in the zone. The second half, he was locating his pitches effectively, especially his sinker, making hitters knock into the ground.

Luck usually doesn't extend over periods of 75+ IP..

I'm not saying you should draft Hampton as your ace. I'm saying that, in the 22nd Round, he'll be a very nice addition to your team, as a 6th or 7th starter. Those projections are around on par with a pitcher like Jason Marquis, and he's going a lot earlier.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:19 am

Yes, but what is to say that his command and control can be stabilized for a full season. This guy has always had issues with walking people/losing command for periods of time.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:19 am

LBJackal wrote:
Spartans Rule wrote:
brandnew wrote:Stop bashing Hampton, check out his 2nd Half numbers.


33 K, 25 BB in 72 IP. Not impressed. The difference in his two halves was mostly luck on balls hit in play.


It's nice to see other people noticing these things. 33/25 K/BB is really bad. This is the same mirage Horacio Ramirez pulled at the start of the year.


I've had a long argument on why I think Horacio defies stats, I don't really want to go into it again. He's not a good fantasy pitcher, but effective in real life.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:25 am

brandnew wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
Spartans Rule wrote:
brandnew wrote:Stop bashing Hampton, check out his 2nd Half numbers.


33 K, 25 BB in 72 IP. Not impressed. The difference in his two halves was mostly luck on balls hit in play.


It's nice to see other people noticing these things. 33/25 K/BB is really bad. This is the same mirage Horacio Ramirez pulled at the start of the year.


I've had a long argument on why I think Horacio defies stats, I don't really want to go into it again. He's not a good fantasy pitcher, but effective in real life.


He'll have to defy not only stats, but the laws of physics to have an ERA below 4.50 in 2005.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:28 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Yes, but what is to say that his command and control can be stabilized for a full season. This guy has always had issues with walking people/losing command for periods of time.


Nothing, I'm just saying that I think he will have it under control for the whole season.
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