rlee wrote:What do you feel this gut is going to do this year? I drafted him as my #4 pitcher.
I'm thinking 13-15 wins, ERA about 3.80-4.00. He's such a head case, my thinking is that with Unit, Pavano, Wright, he becomes the Yankees' 4th pitcher. Might take some of the spotlight, heat off of him.
Despite his age and health risks, I'm betting he has a little bit of gas left in the tank.
I could be way off, but I think the wheels have come off. Draft with caution, though not a bad late round pick. Likely to be drafted well before warranted in most drafts.
I'd say your ERA projection is too generous. Last year he put up a 4.13 pre All Star Break, and 4.03 post Break. I see no reason why he should improve on those numbers this year. IF (big if) he stays healthy, look for a 4-4.5 ERA. 13-15 wins isn't out of the question, though I'd say that's the high end of projections.
But do you really think he'll be happy as the 4th or 5th starter? Word is he's got a big ego, and may end up pouting over it. Maybe this spurs him to resurgence, or maybe it spurs him to push too hard and his 39 year-old body breaks down. Lots of red flags.