advice please

[nuggets]

I'm looking for input and advice on my first of the year. It's H2H with daily roster changes, no limit.

R HR RBI SB TB AVG OBP SLG OPS
C J. Estrada (Atl - C)
1B T. Helton (Col - 1B)
2B M. Bellhorn (Bos - 2B,3B)
3B D. Wright (NYM - 3B)
SS B. Crosby (Oak - SS)
OF I. Suzuki (Sea - OF)
OF C. Patterson (ChC - OF)
OF H. Matsui (NYY - OF)
Util T. Hafner (Cle - 1B)
Util B. Giles (SD - OF)
Util R. Hidalgo (Tex - OF)
BN M. Holliday (Col - OF)
BN M. Cuddyer (Min - 1B,2B,3B,OF)
BN K. Millar (Bos - 1B,OF)
BN W. Pena (Cin - OF)
BN T. Nixon (Bos - OF)
BN D. Young (Det - 1B)

IP W L CG SHO SV K TB ERA WHIP
SP C. Schilling (Bos - SP)
SP T. Hudson (Atl - SP)
SP M. Buehrle (CWS - SP)
SP B. Radke (Min - SP)
SP V. Padilla (Phi - SP)
RP J. Isringhausen (StL - RP)
P J. Williams (SF - SP)

BN W. Miller (Bos - SP)
BN J. Julio (Bal - RP)

[TheYanks04]

Not bad. League is obviously tilted towards sluggers though with OPS, TB and SLG in play. Probably lessens the value of Suzuki a bit, but you would have to run the numbers to find out. Only weak spot looks like SS. and you probably could lose one of the 1b types on the bench as all those 1bs are not going to buy you much. Millar or Cuddyer probably could be cut lose for a flier on something more useful. Also Julio is sort of worthless. A top MR would be bette rif there is no IP limit.

[nuggets]

I"m dropping Padilla and Ricon[err uh I meant JULIO] for either Rincon if I can get him or Gordon. What about Donnelly? I'm probably going to drop Wade Miller also.

[TheYanks04]

Would not do that. Miller will likely have some value later in the season and Padilla is decent enough if he is healthy (something of a gamble no doubt). Julio is next to worthless unless you think he is going to close. His WHIP will hurt. I would lose him for Gordon and if you want Donnelly too then I would be looking at one of your 6 1b or OF reserves. Millar looks like someone that can go without any sweat. He is never going to crack your lineup and has no trade value.

[nuggets]

Would not do that. Miller will likely have some value later in the season and Padilla is decent enough if he is healthy (something of a gamble no doubt). Julio is next to worthless unless you think he is going to close. His WHIP will hurt. I would lose him for Gordon and if you want Donnelly too then I would be looking at one of your 6 1b or OF reserves. Millar looks like someone that can go without any sweat. He is never going to crack your lineup and has no trade value.

With daily roster changes and those 3 util spots I drafted Millar thinking I could use him during one his notorious hot streaks. I just have a problem dropping a guy that could go 80 R 25 HR 90 RBI 260 TB .305 AVG .375 OBP .510 SLG .885 OPS. With the H2H, deep bench util spots and mainly his streakiness I wondering if we wouldn't be quite a value during certain weeks. I'm not saying he will put those #s but it's possible based on what he has done in the past. PECOTA has his 90 percentile forecast at (nr)R 19 HR (nr)RBI 283(I believe!)TB .306 AVG .387 OBP .500 SLG .887 OPS Wow I did all my best potential projections straight out of my ass and was very similar to % ratings by PECOTA method. Cool. Anyway as you can see my totals numbers are a bit hopeful when compared to the great formulas but, baseball players are not computers. Suppose I had only one first basemen other than Millar, would you still think Millars hot/cold ways make him more of a free agent that one watches closely rather than garnering a bench spot?