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Soriano...0/16...should I worry?

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Postby blankman » Sat Mar 12, 2005 7:54 pm

Take that trade in a second if you can make it ;-D
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Postby Irish » Sat Mar 12, 2005 8:23 pm

Richie Sexson is in the same boat, and i'm not too worried about him. Spring is Spring for a reason, it don't friggin matter.
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Postby Juhlz » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:12 am

quietstorm wrote:
warrick95 wrote:It's spring training...everybody's just getting into shape. Soriano's streaky as hell, anyway, so hopefully he's just getting the bad streak out of the way.

I doubt anybody would accept that trade. If you could do it, I would do it regardless of Soriano's status.

Poor math. Just because the roulette wheel lands red ten times in a row doesn't mean it's any less likely to keep landing red. Batting is the same way; if a player sucks for the first few months of the season, it doesn't make him any more likely to do better the rest of the way.

Soriano is so streaky because he relies on luck. He swings at everything, so his rate stats (AVG, OBP, SLG) are all tied directly to how well the fielders on the other team are doing, and how lucky he is with where the ball drops.

That said, Soriano is overhyped. His ISO has dropped two years in a row, and I don't expect him to rebound. His idiocy at the plate is finally catching up to him. Yes, he's still better than anybody at his position, but that doesn't make him the stud that people assume.


I oppose just about every word of this post...to get to the questions though, A. I don't think anyone would accept that exact trade. B. Keep Soriano, he IS a stud and you don't come close to 40-40 by being "lucky". Players have up and down years. This year you have to like his chances of bouncing back to at least 30-30.
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Postby Par66 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:20 am

I just read about Soriano a minute ago... saying he didn't do anything all winter but sit around and think about his bum leg. He's just now getting back to running and being active and he claims the three weeks remaining before the start of the season will be enough time to get back to where he wants to be. :-t

I wouldn't risk my first round pick on him... but I'd have a hard time passing if he came back around in the second.
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Postby quietstorm » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:23 am

From another post I made about Soriano:

quietstorm wrote:Since XBH isn't the most accurate stastic (AB fluctuations affect it considerably), here are the ISO stats for Soriano, the past three years (I've taken the liberty of using an altered ISO, effectively converting all triples into doubles, since a triple is a measure of speed more than power):

2002 - .245
2003 - .228
2004 - .199

In 2001, it was .159. As we all know, 2002 was his breakout season. But, he did have a significant dropoff in 2003. His HR and SB don't show it, but his ISO shows that there's a drop there (just look at his doubles for the year).

<...info about Beltre, relevant to another thread>

Soriano's been falling apart for the past two years.
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Postby baseballnewb » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:30 am

Two years is not a significant judge. The fact he plays in Texas more than offsets those numbers. If statistics has taught us anything its that given a a small to medium sample size you are going to get wildly varied results. A player that doesn't 'lose it' can hit 18 HR's one year and 33 HR's the next and not actually improve, its just a matter of statistic anomoly.

Read this article and you'll see what I'm talking about...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2659

Two years does not a significant trend make.

For what its worth Soriano's PETCO shows improvement this year over last year towards his statistical mean.
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Postby xeifrank » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:33 am

<sarcasm>

Soriano will probably get sent down to the minors. I'd drop him.

</sarcasm>

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Postby quietstorm » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:52 am

For what its worth Soriano's PETCO shows improvement this year over last year towards his statistical mean.

I think you mean PECOTA ;)

I know, I've got the book sitting next to me and multiple spreadsheets with PECOTA projections on my computer. I disagree with them on Soriano.

And, I've read the BP article by Silver a couple times.

Let me show you what BP's book has to say about Soriano:

BaseballProspectus2005 wrote:Probably the single most overrated player in baseball. Yes, it's interesting and axciting that he can hit a pitch two feet down and in over the fence. But what the hell is he doing swinging at it in the first place? Most of the time, he flails at that pitch and misses it, in yet another mini trhee-act play that has Soriano loping back ot the bench. He hit .244/.291/.444 on the road. Defensitvely, no metric pegs him as a good defensive second baseman, and one advance scout describes him as "beyond redemption" with the glove. Why, exactly, do people think this guy is anythign remotely resembling a star? Are we that starved for excitement?


As you can see, BP isn't so hot on Soriano when they actually talk about him. And, as you can also note by that away line, he was better at The Ballpark than outside it.

I don't see how playing in Texas offsets the numbers, anyway, since it had a part factor of 1090 last year -- a slight hitter's park -- according to PECOTA. His EQISO for the past three years:

2002 - .259
2003 - .247
2004 - .205

It's worth noting, as well, that his 50th-percentile projection has him hitting .296 with 32 HR and 20 SB. Even his 90th-percentile projection has a 37/33... if he hits that, he's worth a first-round pick. With a 32/20 season hitting .296? I don't think so.
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Postby so0perspam » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:55 am

Good posts quietstorm, I agree with you on this one.
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Postby baseballnewb » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:57 am

Oops yea, that was a major typo.

I have him slated at 298, 93, 33, 105, 21. Lower than weighted pecota but higher than most I'd guess. I consider him a late first round pick mainly because the difference between a 10 and a 14 in every other position is very minor. The difference between soriano and the 2nd best 2B is just huge and between him and replacement level is astronomical at that thin position.

His PECOTA modified for realistc AB's is 301 avg, 106 R, 35 HR, 109 RBI, 24 SB which I agree is a tad high.

Also you need to keep in mind you are counting 2 years. Most likely 3 years ago was his career year, I'll accept that. Last year was a new park, getting used to being 'the man' and moving to a new slot in the order, not to mention he was hurt for part of the year and for part of the year he had no protection while teix was hurt. Its really hard to look at those numbers and say its a trend and its only natural his stats fell from the career year. I think you are falling into the same trap people fall into with the Arod projections and the same trap that leads to people taking guys like drew and beltre too early, small sample size.
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