For what its worth Soriano's PETCO shows improvement this year over last year towards his statistical mean.
I think you mean PECOTA
I know, I've got the book sitting next to me and multiple spreadsheets with PECOTA projections on my computer. I disagree with them on Soriano.
And, I've read the BP article by Silver a couple times.
Let me show you what BP's book has to say about Soriano:
BaseballProspectus2005 wrote:Probably the single most overrated player in baseball. Yes, it's interesting and axciting that he can hit a pitch two feet down and in over the fence. But what the hell is he doing swinging at it in the first place? Most of the time, he flails at that pitch and misses it, in yet another mini trhee-act play that has Soriano loping back ot the bench. He hit .244/.291/.444 on the road. Defensitvely, no metric pegs him as a good defensive second baseman, and one advance scout describes him as "beyond redemption" with the glove. Why, exactly, do people think this guy is anythign remotely resembling a star? Are we that starved for excitement?
As you can see, BP isn't so hot on Soriano when they actually talk about him. And, as you can also note by that away line, he was better
at The Ballpark than outside it.
I don't see how playing in Texas offsets the numbers, anyway, since it had a part factor of 1090 last year -- a slight hitter's park -- according to PECOTA. His EQISO for the past three years:
2002 - .259
2003 - .247
2004 - .205
It's worth noting, as well, that his 50th-percentile projection has him hitting .296 with 32 HR and 20 SB. Even his 90th-percentile projection has a 37/33... if he hits that, he's worth a first-round pick. With a 32/20 season hitting .296? I don't think so.
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...