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VLADIMIR GUERRERO

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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby hot4tx » Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:41 pm

TTT

Bumped this thread because its relevant with as many people writing people Vlad off this year. This was 4 years ago and some people were projecting 80-90 runs and RBIs, 25 HRs and sub .300 average. Vlads still ticking. And he just turned 33. I'll repeat that he's only 33. He's the same age as Brad Lidge, Berkman, Soriano and Carlos Lee and only one year older than the other Carlos (Beltran) and Roy Halladay. He is a year younger than Arod and 4 years younger than Manny Ramirez. So why have people been writing him off for 4 years? I've heard the "he swings at bad balls and when his bat speed slows down it will catch up with him" argument, but so does Soriano and Beltran to some extent. The "he's played more major league baseball then most guys his age" argument would be good except that he's not a running back in the NFL. How much harder on your body is it to swing a bat in MLB than in college or in the minors?

He did have a down year, but with Tex in the lineup he seemed like the old Vlad, showing he still "has it". Will Abreu hitting before him help him out the some way. Looking at the numbers for 2008 in total, his hit per AB, HR per AB and BB per AB were all pretty close to 2004 through 2007. He did K more than he previously had, possibly signifying that his bat speed has slowed a bit and maybe telling us he's a low .300 hitter now, not the .330 guy. Also he's just not going to run much anymore with all of the leg problems. Just not worth it.

Bottom line: Vlad's value as a high average power hitter who steals bases is gone. He's now a 90-30-110-.300 guy if he avoids the DL. He's the Chipper Jones of OF. IMO that makes him a solid late-3rd rounder or steal in the 4th.

And when someone tells you Vlad is surely on decline, just point them to this 2005 thread proclaiming him dead.
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby woodson_28 » Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:04 pm

not too worried about him personally. I landed him w/ the 49th overall pick (#9 pick in rd 5) in a 10 team league, so... good value I think. I would guess another similar season to last year, maybe slightly better w/ Abreu in the line-up.
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby CadensDad » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:08 am

hot4tx wrote:TTT

Bumped this thread because its relevant with as many people writing people Vlad off this year. This was 4 years ago and some people were projecting 80-90 runs and RBIs, 25 HRs and sub .300 average. Vlads still ticking. And he just turned 33. I'll repeat that he's only 33. He's the same age as Brad Lidge, Berkman, Soriano and Carlos Lee and only one year older than the other Carlos (Beltran) and Roy Halladay. He is a year younger than Arod and 4 years younger than Manny Ramirez. So why have people been writing him off for 4 years? I've heard the "he swings at bad balls and when his bat speed slows down it will catch up with him" argument, but so does Soriano and Beltran to some extent. The "he's played more major league baseball then most guys his age" argument would be good except that he's not a running back in the NFL. How much harder on your body is it to swing a bat in MLB than in college or in the minors?

He did have a down year, but with Tex in the lineup he seemed like the old Vlad, showing he still "has it". Will Abreu hitting before him help him out the some way. Looking at the numbers for 2008 in total, his hit per AB, HR per AB and BB per AB were all pretty close to 2004 through 2007. He did K more than he previously had, possibly signifying that his bat speed has slowed a bit and maybe telling us he's a low .300 hitter now, not the .330 guy. Also he's just not going to run much anymore with all of the leg problems. Just not worth it.

Bottom line: Vlad's value as a high average power hitter who steals bases is gone. He's now a 90-30-110-.300 guy if he avoids the DL. He's the Chipper Jones of OF. IMO that makes him a solid late-3rd rounder or steal in the 4th.

And when someone tells you Vlad is surely on decline, just point them to this 2005 thread proclaiming him dead.


Good post
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:49 am

Vlad is steady, and tho he had his worst full season ever, theres much hope that he'll rebound.
He had a bad knee last year, but he had surgery in October and the team thinks he is ok, cause they picked up his $15.0 mill option for 2009 two weeks after surgery.
He'll be healthier, and he is now in a contract year.
But he has to be real good.
Next years FA class is pretty strong: Vlad, Holliday, Bay, Magglio and Huff are the options to teams looking for a power OF-DH.

FYI the Yankees will look for a corner outfielder and DH after the season with Matsui's and Damon's and Nady's contracts to expire, so expect a bidding war for the best of the bunch.

Sheff is in his final year too, but he is not in the same tier.


And maybe Manny.
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby jake_harv88 » Tue Feb 17, 2009 9:44 am

When I watched Vlad play last year he appeared old, over-weight, and slow. Relatively unexciting. I would say his downside is bigger than his upside at this point in his career. If he fell to me at the right spot I would definitely take him, but there is certainly cause for concern IMO...
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby ayebatter » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:16 pm

I wish Vlady and the Angel fans all the luck in the world, but you won't find Vlad on any of my teams this yr.
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby The Artful Dodger » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:32 pm

I don't think Vlad is being written off as "done", per se. It's just that the probability he returns to a .320-330/35 HR/100+ RBI line or something to that effect has to be tempered to a certain degree where he's not worth burning a second or even a third round pick on. He's gained some weight since signing with the Angels, which could explain the knee trouble he had last year and especially given his workrate in the outfield and on the basepaths, it's not surprising to see that additional wear-and-tear on him. Getting DH time should help Vlad and the fact that his rates aren't too alarming to signal a steep decline could translate into Vlad bouncing back from '07 and '08, but I wouldn't bank on that to the extent I'd take him 2nd or 3rd round. A 4th round pick is reasonable enough.
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:40 pm

I'm not writing him off, I'm just not taking a chance on a guy who runs like Fred Sanford these days.
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby MotorCityKitties » Tue Feb 17, 2009 4:33 pm

Rotoworld:
Vladimir Guerrero, who is coming off knee surgery, probably won't play during the first week of exhibition games.
Guerrero won't be taking part in the WBC. "We’re going to take it slow with him," manager Mike Scioscia said. "He has not been running yet so we want to get him running and then we can evaluate him further. He feels great. There’s no need for him to start to do things in January that we have time to fold in."


I didn't know about the knee surgery. Was it a major procedure?
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Re: VLADIMIR GUERRERO

Postby ayebatter » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:00 pm

MotorCityKitties wrote:Rotoworld:
Vladimir Guerrero, who is coming off knee surgery, probably won't play during the first week of exhibition games.
Guerrero won't be taking part in the WBC. "We’re going to take it slow with him," manager Mike Scioscia said. "He has not been running yet so we want to get him running and then we can evaluate him further. He feels great. There’s no need for him to start to do things in January that we have time to fold in."


I didn't know about the knee surgery. Was it a major procedure?



Nah, they let a tv doctor do it. :-b
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