Arods steals wont be as high as 28, and Vlad will steal more as his back gets further away from the injury
Actually its likely arod's steals will be as high or higher. He has moved to a team that likes to steal more than his old team and he is now batting 2nd which is a lot friendlier basestealing position in the lineup.
Vlad on the other hand is unlikely to swipe 15 again, he's batting in the middle of the lineup and has injury issues that most likely mean they won't be sending him anymore. Arod will most likely double Vlad in SB's this year.
I'd take Vlad in shallow leagues, Arod in deep leagues. 3B is deep in the top end but its pretty shallow in the mid range whereis OF is deep all over. In a 12-14 team league I think positional scarcity comes into play, especially if you have a CI slot as well.