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Do We Give Billy Beane to much credit?

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Postby Lofunzo » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:49 pm

RynMan wrote:
ramble2 wrote:As a rough first approximation, I'd define GM success as the following:

1. Putting his team in a position to make the playoffs.
2. Effectively evaluating and acquiring his team's needs.
3. Maintaing competitiveness year to year.
4. Giving fans a reason to have hope.

Obviously Moneyball isn't the only way to accomplish this. Neither is simply throwing a lot of money around. I give Beane a ton of credit for what he's done. How many teams in the majors have GMs who can say they've consistently accomplished all four of those criteria?

Some people want to add a 5th criterion:

5. Winning in the playoffs.

Fair enough, although I think a GM has a minimal role here. Any team that makes the playoffs has a shot at winning the whole thing. We've seen this ever since the wild card was added. For evaluating a GM, I'd say a better 5th criterion would be:

5a. Giving his team the tools to win a playoff series.

Has Beane done this? I'd argue yes, even though they haven't won a series -- yet. They've come awful close. Did they lose because they were missing parts that Beane should have provided? Obviously that's not a very easy question to answer ...


Exactly. Isn't it enough to have made the playoff's soo many times recently? Alot of teams haven't even done that.


So now we are supposed to bow down when you make the playoffs a few times in a row?? If we keep lowering our standards, what's next?? A parade if a team is over .500??

He has done a very good job with his resources but I can't see the love fest with someone that has never won a playoff series. :-°
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 8:48 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:I did nothing to insult your intelligence, so why did you feel the need to flame me? I know what park effects are, and I never said park effects were teams building around their park. So thanks for putting words in my mouth. How do you adjust for park effects, anyways? Can you explain? Id like to see.


Flame you? Get a grip.

And in the statement below you clearly said that park effects were an effect of team building.

Park effects are real and you cant ignore them when determining a offense. Many teams offenses are built to take advantage of the park. So when you take that away, it makes a team look better or worse than they are in real life.


You really don't know what park effects are, because you've consistently misrepresented what they are and how they are supposed to be used in this discussion.

Here's a good beginner's discussion of why park factors are important:
http://www.stephent.com/jays/sabr.html

And here's a technical description of their use:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about ... just.shtml

You misintreptered what I said, I didnt want what I said to say that park effects were teams building around the park. I know they are various numbers on how parks effect hitters and pitchers. I never meant to say that it was teams building around parks. Thanks for the links.
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Postby ramble2 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 8:51 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
RynMan wrote:
ramble2 wrote:As a rough first approximation, I'd define GM success as the following:

1. Putting his team in a position to make the playoffs.
2. Effectively evaluating and acquiring his team's needs.
3. Maintaing competitiveness year to year.
4. Giving fans a reason to have hope.

Obviously Moneyball isn't the only way to accomplish this. Neither is simply throwing a lot of money around. I give Beane a ton of credit for what he's done. How many teams in the majors have GMs who can say they've consistently accomplished all four of those criteria?

Some people want to add a 5th criterion:

5. Winning in the playoffs.

Fair enough, although I think a GM has a minimal role here. Any team that makes the playoffs has a shot at winning the whole thing. We've seen this ever since the wild card was added. For evaluating a GM, I'd say a better 5th criterion would be:

5a. Giving his team the tools to win a playoff series.

Has Beane done this? I'd argue yes, even though they haven't won a series -- yet. They've come awful close. Did they lose because they were missing parts that Beane should have provided? Obviously that's not a very easy question to answer ...


Exactly. Isn't it enough to have made the playoff's soo many times recently? Alot of teams haven't even done that.


So now we are supposed to bow down when you make the playoffs a few times in a row?? If we keep lowering our standards, what's next?? A parade if a team is over .500??

He has done a very good job with his resources but I can't see the love fest with someone that has never won a playoff series. :-°


I think that's fair - even if I disagree. You've stipulated exactly what it will take. However, would you rank a GM higher that put together a flash in the pan team that won a playoff series but didn't see .500 again for 5 or 6 (or longer) years, or a GM that got his team into the post-season 5 years running, never won a playoff series, but got to game 5 several times?

For my team, I'd rather have the latter. Each time you get to the post-season, you've got a chance to win it all. That's what you ask your GM to do. Give you the right pieces.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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Postby RynMan » Sun Mar 13, 2005 8:58 pm

You dont hear ppl say the Braves have only one 1 or 2 rings (cant remember how many it is) therefore John Schurholtz is overrated. You hear ppl mention its the 13 consecutive division titles. To me, its about consistancy. Schulholtz and Beane put consistantly quality products on the field year in and year out. The big difference being that one is in a town that doesn't even deserve a team, hence has no market.
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Postby RynMan » Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:01 pm

I also dont think you have to "bow down" to anyone. Nobody is saying we should be worshipping Beane. All we are saying is that he gets the credit he deserves because he has earned it. In my mind, you dont have to take out a world series to get credit for being a good GM. Omar Minaya was a very good GM in Montreal, but because the expos finished soo badly every year, does that mean that he didnt do a good job?
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Postby Lofunzo » Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:06 pm

ramble2 wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
RynMan wrote:
ramble2 wrote:As a rough first approximation, I'd define GM success as the following:

1. Putting his team in a position to make the playoffs.
2. Effectively evaluating and acquiring his team's needs.
3. Maintaing competitiveness year to year.
4. Giving fans a reason to have hope.

Obviously Moneyball isn't the only way to accomplish this. Neither is simply throwing a lot of money around. I give Beane a ton of credit for what he's done. How many teams in the majors have GMs who can say they've consistently accomplished all four of those criteria?

Some people want to add a 5th criterion:

5. Winning in the playoffs.

Fair enough, although I think a GM has a minimal role here. Any team that makes the playoffs has a shot at winning the whole thing. We've seen this ever since the wild card was added. For evaluating a GM, I'd say a better 5th criterion would be:

5a. Giving his team the tools to win a playoff series.

Has Beane done this? I'd argue yes, even though they haven't won a series -- yet. They've come awful close. Did they lose because they were missing parts that Beane should have provided? Obviously that's not a very easy question to answer ...


Exactly. Isn't it enough to have made the playoff's soo many times recently? Alot of teams haven't even done that.


So now we are supposed to bow down when you make the playoffs a few times in a row?? If we keep lowering our standards, what's next?? A parade if a team is over .500??

He has done a very good job with his resources but I can't see the love fest with someone that has never won a playoff series. :-°


I think that's fair - even if I disagree. You've stipulated exactly what it will take. However, would you rank a GM higher that put together a flash in the pan team that won a playoff series but didn't see .500 again for 5 or 6 (or longer) years, or a GM that got his team into the post-season 5 years running, never won a playoff series, but got to game 5 several times?

For my team, I'd rather have the latter. Each time you get to the post-season, you've got a chance to win it all. That's what you ask your GM to do. Give you the right pieces.


I would like to see sustained success and improvement. I have seen some sustained success but they haven't improved. I'm not talking about W-L record, per se. I am talking about taking it to another level. They haven't been able to take it to the next level. I am surprised that with those 3 SP, they weren't able to win once. :-°

I also don't want it to look like I don't think that Beane has done a good job. He has. I just have a problem with giving him too much credit. That's all.
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Postby Phatferd » Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:13 pm

People have stated that Beane and Co. have declared that they don't prepare their team for the playoffs, but to position themselves to be there.

Maybe, they don't build their team for the playoffs, but you cannot say the team since '01 was not built for the playoffs, with 3 ACES. When you need to win 3 of 5, then 4 of 7, you need great SP and they had that.

Lastly, if you just build your team to get to the playoffs and let fate playout from there, then so be it. However, if you have made the playoffs for 3 or 4 years in a row and haven't got out of the first round, you need to DO SOMETHING different. In order to be a true success you need to build on top of each achievement.
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Postby Lofunzo » Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:16 pm

Phatferd wrote:People have stated that Beane and Co. have declared that they don't prepare their team for the playoffs, but to position themselves to be there.

Maybe, they don't build their team for the playoffs, but you cannot say the team since '01 was not built for the playoffs, with 3 ACES. When you need to win 3 of 5, then 4 of 7, you need great SP and they had that.

Lastly, if you just build your team to get to the playoffs and let fate playout from there, then so be it. However, if you have made the playoffs for 3 or 4 years in a row and haven't got out of the first round, you need to DO SOMETHING different. In order to be a true success you need to build on top of each achievement.


I think that you were agreeing with me but I find the first paragraph interesting. If that is the case, then I don't like the fact that he set his standards low and then achieved them. :-°
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Postby Phatferd » Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:26 pm

I do agree with you, I was just reading some of the earlier pages and people were saying that the A's philosophy isn't based on winning in the playoffs, but to put themselves in and hope that fate goes their way somewhat.
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Postby looptid » Mon Mar 14, 2005 9:40 am

Lofunzo wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
You may think so but the name of the game is winning. There are a lot of people that swear by his beliefs yet it has never won a championship. I reiterate that I refuse to bunch the Sox with them. I don't see how people can swear by him when he can't get out of the 1st round. You'd think that with that staff, they would have done it at least once. I'm not saying that he's bad. I'm just saying that between the books and the people swearing by him, I think that's a bit much when his success isn't that great when you look at the overall results rather than the relative results.


Depends on what you mean by "the overall results". I see a team that has many fewer resources being the second winningest team in baseball as being much more of an important factor in "the overall results" than a couple of series in October. You don't. There's too much randomness involved in a short series to give that so much weight, in my opinion.


I am giving him credit for doing what he can do to remain competitive with limited resources. I am just adding that it only goes so far. People make him out to be a God when his methods show you how to remain competitive but not win championships.


Are you Joe Morgan? And what's with the strawman arguement? I don't think anyone in this thread has said he's God among GMs. And name me one general manager that won a playoff series (not just the general manager of a team that won a playoff series).
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