bleach168 wrote: Everything you just stated can also be said about Arthur Rhodes. I'm not going to draft Ryan when I can get more of a sure thing in Baez.
We can do a bet if you want. What shall it be? Save percentage? I'll go with the under if it's 85%.
Actually, no, it can't.
At age 28 Rhodes had 8 seasons in MLB. Like Ryan, half of them had been above average, but the other half had been far below average. None of them had been nearly as good as Ryan's two best seasons. At the same age, Ryan was a 20% better than average pitcher. Rhodes was a slightly below average pitcher. During the three years prior to the attempt to make him a closer, Rhodes K/9 went from 11.0 to 10.6 to 8.0. In other words, completely the opposite of Ryan's trajectory. His K/BB went from 7, to 6, to 2.5. Again, completely the opposite of Ryan.
No closer is a sure thing, especially not one like Baez. But, sure, I'll take the over.
LBJackal wrote:Rhodes had a bad career and mixed in 2 good seasons (neither of which came the season before being given the closers job by Beane). When he was given the closer role he was old, and was coming off of a year that he had a 1.31 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB, and was destined to fail. Ryan had a 1.14 WHIP last year with a 3.5 K/BB and tons of K's - way more than twice as many as Rhodes the year before he became closer. Huge difference.
You'd seriously draft Baez before Ryan?
Yes, Baez before Ryan easily.
Rhodes would have still failed if they gave him the closers job when he was young, or if they gave him the closers job after his two best seasons.
Anyways, I got a bet going with GotowarMissAgnes, so we'll see what happens soon enough.
Btw GotowarMissAgnes, I see you are also really down on the Astros. Care to make another bet? I say they finish with a winning record. Whoever loses both bets, will have hell to pay. If it's split, we just call it even. What say you? You can decide the stakes.
"Steal a little and they'll throw you in jail, steal a lot and they'll make you a king." - Bob Dylan
bleach168 wrote:Btw GotowarMissAgnes, I see you are also really down on the Astros. Care to make another bet? I say they finish with a winning record. Whoever loses both bets, will have hell to pay. If it's split, we just call it even. What say you? You can decide the stakes.
It's not so much that I'm down on the Astros as the fact that every sim I've seen so far has them under 75 wins. I'd like to see what shakes out through the rest of spring training, because with the right choices, I can seen them over .500. But, they do need to find someone other than Berkman to provide some offense, because otherwise, they aren't going to have it.
All 3 of Baez's blown saves have come from Pinella asking him to get more than 3 outs. In two of those situations, he came on with runners already on base. I'm sure Baez owners aren't too unhappy with his performance so far. He has been a lot more solid than the average closer this year. Just unlucky with the number of save chances.
Obviously, he would have a much better save percentage if he was strictly a 3-out kind of closer (like Hoffman), but that's not how he is used which is a good thing! Because he is asked to get those 4, 5, or 6 out saves, he should have a lot more opportunities than the 6 he has so far. Last I checked, fantasy players only care about how many saves a closer gets, not what their save percentage is.
Last edited by bleach168 on Wed May 18, 2005 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.