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Julio vs Ryan

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:06 pm

stumpak wrote:His career splits are not as drastic as last year, but he still gets beat up by righties. I place more credence in this due to the sample size. He clearly has the job at this point, but I am not so high on the guy to be the raging sucess that everyone envisions. People seem to be valuing like he is some sort of sure shot, but that is not the case at all.

The nice thing, however, is that he will at least be getting a crapload of Ks ifhe flounders.


You are making the common mistake of focusing too much on the fantasy numbers rather than on other important numbers that do not get counted in fantasy ball.

Ryan doesn't get "beat up" by righties. He gives up a lot of singles to righties. In almost 500 plate appearances over the last 3 years, he's given up just 5 HRs to righties. That's one homer every 20 innings, gang. Righties slug just .357 against him. He's also got a 2/1 K/BB rate against righties.

Think about what the typical closer does. He comes in with bases empty needing to get three outs protecting a 1, 2 or 3 run lead. Ryan's worst outings usually involve a couple of singles and a walk. That MIGHT get you one run. IOW, because he almost never gives up the dong, he's golden for 2 and 3 run leads and still really, really tough with a one run lead, because you aren't going to tie it with one swing. You have to put together a 3 man rally to beat him.

You're misjudging Ryan by looking only at HOW MANY hits he gives up to righties and ignoring WHAT KINDS of hits he gives up.
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Postby stumpak » Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:37 pm

Good points.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:36 pm

Even bad closers convert 80% of their save opps. I don't see Ryan converting 90% of his.

I don't see how picking Julio up in the last round is a bad move. It's not like spending a round 11 pick on a closer who,

1) Has never closed before
2) Never been groomed as a closer
3) Has had one good year at age 29
4) Is a lefty specialist
5) Walks a hitter every other inning
6) Isn't even guaranteed the closers job
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:26 pm

bleach168 wrote:Even bad closers convert 80% of their save opps. I don't see Ryan converting 90% of his.

I don't see how picking Julio up in the last round is a bad move. It's not like spending a round 11 pick on a closer who,

1) Has never closed before
2) Never been groomed as a closer
3) Has had one good year at age 29
4) Is a lefty specialist
5) Walks a hitter every other inning
6) Isn't even guaranteed the closers job


The average closer converts about 85% of opportunities. I'll be very surprised if Ryan does not top that.

On points 1 & 2: Gagne had never closed before and was never groomed as a closer. Neither was Eckersley. They are both irrelevant.

3.Ryan has pitched in MLB in 6 seasons. In 3 seasons he's been better than average, including two seasons in which his ERA+ was 60% or more better than the average pitcher. He's had one average season. One slightly below average season. And one bad season. Over the course of those 6 seasons his ERA+ is 20 percent better than average. Get your facts right.

4) In what sense? He gets right-handed hitters out better than the average pitcher. He's a "lefty-specialist" only in the sense that he's simply lights out against them and that was how Baltimore defined his role last year. Over the course of his career, however, he is better than average against right-handed hitters, too.

5) Ryan's BB/9 the last three years: 5.2, 4.9, 3.6. Ryan's K/9 the last 3 years: 8.7, 11.3, 12.6
Spot a trend?

6) No closer is "guaranteed" a job. Ryan's job is no more in jeaparday than about half the other closers in baseball.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:39 pm

On top of this all, isnt Julio hurt too? I thought I read that he was hurt in spring training here, and that doesn't sound to promising for his chances.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:38 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:On top of this all, isnt Julio hurt too? I thought I read that he was hurt in spring training here, and that doesn't sound to promising for his chances.


Yes, although there is no indication that Julio's injury is serious.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Mar 11, 2005 8:39 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
bleach168 wrote:Even bad closers convert 80% of their save opps. I don't see Ryan converting 90% of his.

I don't see how picking Julio up in the last round is a bad move. It's not like spending a round 11 pick on a closer who,

1) Has never closed before
2) Never been groomed as a closer
3) Has had one good year at age 29
4) Is a lefty specialist
5) Walks a hitter every other inning
6) Isn't even guaranteed the closers job


The average closer converts about 85% of opportunities. I'll be very surprised if Ryan does not top that.

On points 1 & 2: Gagne had never closed before and was never groomed as a closer. Neither was Eckersley. They are both irrelevant.

3.Ryan has pitched in MLB in 6 seasons. In 3 seasons he's been better than average, including two seasons in which his ERA+ was 60% or more better than the average pitcher. He's had one average season. One slightly below average season. And one bad season. Over the course of those 6 seasons his ERA+ is 20 percent better than average. Get your facts right.

4) In what sense? He gets right-handed hitters out better than the average pitcher. He's a "lefty-specialist" only in the sense that he's simply lights out against them and that was how Baltimore defined his role last year. Over the course of his career, however, he is better than average against right-handed hitters, too.

5) Ryan's BB/9 the last three years: 5.2, 4.9, 3.6. Ryan's K/9 the last 3 years: 8.7, 11.3, 12.6
Spot a trend?

6) No closer is "guaranteed" a job. Ryan's job is no more in jeaparday than about half the other closers in baseball.


Everything you just stated can also be said about Arthur Rhodes. I'm not going to draft Ryan when I can get more of a sure thing in Baez.

We can do a bet if you want. What shall it be? Save percentage? I'll go with the under if it's 85%.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Mar 11, 2005 8:43 pm

Rhodes stinks... Ryan is good. And Baez has been in trade ruumours to be a setup man, while the O's went out and got a replacement LH setup man to allow Ryan to be the full-time closer. I'd say both job security and talent favour Ryan over Baez by quite a bit.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Mar 11, 2005 8:44 pm

LBJackal wrote:Rhodes stinks... Ryan is good. And Baez has been in trade ruumours to be a setup man, while the O's went out and got a replacement LH setup man to allow Ryan to be the full-time closer. I'd say both job security and talent favour Ryan over Baez by quite a bit.


please explain how Ryan is that much different from Rhodes.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Mar 11, 2005 8:52 pm

Rhodes had a bad career and mixed in 2 good seasons (neither of which came the season before being given the closers job by Beane). When he was given the closer role he was old, and was coming off of a year that he had a 1.31 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB, and was destined to fail. Ryan had a 1.14 WHIP last year with a 3.5 K/BB and tons of K's - way more than twice as many as Rhodes the year before he became closer. Huge difference.

You'd seriously draft Baez before Ryan?
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