Closer predictions by July...

[Jack-In-A-Box]

Okay, and those 6-12 pitches he threw an inning must have been hell on his arm, also considering he hasn't made the move back to SP yet, so we'll see. So we'll ask Eck (whom they moved to closer because it was easier on his arm). Do you really think that
3-12 in one inning is harder than starting??? Come on, then Beckett should move to closer right now!!!

I think another thing you failed to consider is that Smoltz took longer to warmup than most other RP. Usually an inning and a half was needed for him to get ready or a full inning at the very least. That constant for several days in a row, while only 16 pitches per Inn avg on paper is actually quite a bit more, that will wear on an arm pretty good. Also Smoltz did say in the AJC that closing wasnt like SP in that closing was going out there and throwing your hardest for short periods of time..whereas SP you work into a rythmn. Just reinforcing what was said that Smoltz thought SP was easier on the arm than closing. Which also leads me to agree with the stress that Lidge has been put through that he may indeed be headed to a DL near you sooner rather than later. Just my 2 pennies worth.

[Havok1517]

duly noted.

[mikegp]

With Takatsu, he doesn't need a blistering fastball to be effective. He's got good stuff, and induces a lot of groundballs. I wouldn't want to rely on him to be my #1 closer, and even as my #2 I'd be worried, but I'd be more worried about guys like Mike Adams, Greg Aquino, Danys Baez, etc.

He's bound to have a higher WHIP and ERA obviously, because there's no way in hell he allows so few hits in 2005. He's a risk, but he could pay off and you don't win leagues by going with the sure thing all the time.

I pretty much agree with you, but he's been pitching in Japan for a long time and they haven't completly figured him out over there, so at least that is reassuring for people like me who have him as their number one closer

[hybrid]

I think it is pretty likely Baez gets traded this year (edited: his contract is up at the end of the year), but I don't think Colome would be a good closer canidate. He has great stuff, fastball/slider, but he just doesn't get how to pitch. Realistically better as a power righty coming out of the pen, he doesn't handle pressure to well ... check his his stats with runners on.

Thus after saying that, I will throw out the name Chad Orvella. He rocketed through the Rays system last year from Low A to Double A, with about 2IP in Triple A. Was primarily a SS at NC State, but made great progress in his 1st year as a full time RP. Has a good 92-94 fastball, to go with a great change up and good slider. Will likely start the year in Triple A.

All of his stats added together (from each level): 74IP 42H 14ER 10BB 117K

I bet LBJackel will like the BB/K ratio

[Cornbread Maxwell]

good stuff hybrid - why is Baez going to be traded? contract almost up?

I like the heads up on Orvella - always nice to hear about the sleepers from the Homers.

[hybrid]

Yeah, he signed a 2 year - 6.5 million deal before the 2004 season, so his contract is up after this year. I really doubt that they are going to pay him to stay, especially when a lot of people view Orvella has their closer for the future. So they might as well trade him and get something in return from a playoff contender.

[AKhomebrewer]

bj ryan = this years arthur rhodes

BJ Ryan = good RP, Arthur Rhodes = bad RP. Doesn't mean Ryan will succeed as closer, but don't compare him to Rhodes who carried the illusion of being a good pitcher for quite some time after sucking. Some people still think he'd be good in a setup role.

No, that's just not right. Rhodes was an elite RP for two seasons. One season you can fluke, not 2. BJ Ryan did no more last year than Rhodes did in 2001 and 2002. Before that, Ryan had an average record as a RP.

As a Pacific Northwest guy, I might point out that during his two solid years, Rhodes employed a back-door slider that actually made him tougher against righties than lefties. So he was not a classic 'lefty specialist.' Where Beane went wrong was failing to recognize Rhodes had hit the wall by mid-2003 and was no longer getting ANYBODY out.
Ryan also has been throwing full innings against all comers (not merely getting one southpaw out and heading for the bench). I think he'll be OK as closer, but well below 'elite' level.

[Havok1517]

I think 30 saves for Ryan will be reasonably easy to attain.

[LBJackal]

All of his stats added together (from each level): 74IP 42H 14ER 10BB 117K

I bet LBJackel will like the BB/K ratio

Love the K/BB ratio

But you have to be careful with minor league RP's... I'm sure you know this Hybrid but just a general caveat to everybody - a lot of times a guy can pitch 1-2 innings at a time with only 1 great pitch in the lower levels, or without stuff that'd be good enough to be a closer at the major league level. Usually to be a MLB closer you need good enough stuff to succeed as a minor league starter.

I'm not familiar with Orvella too much, so I can't say specifically for him if he can succeed as a closer... but not too many pitchers who were RP's in the minors become closers in the majors. The only one I can think of is Chad Cordero, who hasn't been that good so far. Ryan Wagner is another one that comes to mind and he's been a complete bust so far. Luis Ayala on the other hand is a great MLB RP who never started in the minors.

[Mookie4ever]

A lot of crazy stuff in this thread. Is everyone so sure that Gonzalez will be closing in Pitt?

As shaky as he is, Mesa is still effective, getting 40+ saves in 2 of the past 3 years without blowing very many.

Gonzalez is still pretty young and in his 47 appearances last year they only put him in 4 save opportunities.

Torres is pretty damned good in the set up role and they like him as much as they like Gonz.

There's also something to be said for having a lights out lefty specialist in the pen