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PT and the Mariners OF (Reed)

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:30 pm

Apparantly the SEA managers think Reed is more competent. ;-D

This really shouldnt be a shock - Reed has always been one of the best OF prospects, and now he gets his chance. It just so happens his chance includes batting in between two of the best hitters in baseball.

Nothing against Winn, but those closest to the situation feel Reed will be better in that spot, just like they think he will play better in CF than Winn.

Go with it - Reed is a very deep sleeper this yr - he can be had in the last couple of rds of most standard drafts. Most people still think Winn will be hitting in the 2 hole and are drafting him ahead of Reed.
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Postby quietstorm » Thu Mar 10, 2005 5:28 pm

xeifrank wrote:So, what's the over/under on number of at bats he gets this year?

vr

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536 on the adjusted PECOTA projections. I'd expect about 500, assuming he doesn't falter out of the gate.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 5:37 pm

Whether Winn bats 2nd or 7th, I don't see Reed having a more productive year than him. The power for Reed isn't there.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:07 pm

KolbSaves wrote:Whether Winn bats 2nd or 7th, I don't see Reed having a more productive year than him. The power for Reed isn't there.


SBs, Avg, and Rs are a valuable commodity - look at Pierre. Now Im not saying Reed is Pierre of course, but I have seen projections putting him at 100Rs, 40 SBs, and over .300.

He could turn out to be worth quite a lot.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:10 pm

It's not like Winn can't steal a base or hit for decent average though...
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Postby quietstorm » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:14 pm

VORP Projections:

Winn - 24.8
Reed - 37.6

OBP Projections:

Winn - .337
Reed - .353

SLG Projections:

Winn - .420
Reed - .423


Looks to me like Reed, due to his higher projected OBP, is better for the top of the lineup.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:15 pm

true that, Kolb - but if one guys hits more HRs (winn) and the other guy steals more bases (reed) - in a real generalized way doesnt that basically equal them out (BA is the same)?

If thats the case then, whoever is batting 2nd in the order will be more valuable than who is batting 7th, right? More ABs, better protection, more runs...

I think it makes a difference, and those people drafting Winn may be making a mistake.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:20 pm

In that case, Corn, wouldn't Winn still have the rbi advantage?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:29 pm

it really depends, I mean he'll be batting behind Sexson and Boone at best - maybe even Ibanez - guys not really known for their OBP, while Reed bats behind Ichiro. I wouldnt be suprised if Reed has better stats across the board other than HRs if both stay healthy and primarily bat from the projected spots were talking about.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I dont want to sound like Im a big Reed fan, because Ive never seen him before - have no idea what he even looks like. All Im saying is that Ive been seeing Winn drafted in many drafts - pretty early sometimes too - while Reed can often go undrafted. All I wanted to do was bring the attention on a possible sleeper instead of drafting Winn.
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