Lieber or Pavano?

[Free Bagel]

Pitchers go to New York to die. Lieber is leaving NY, Pavano is entering. I'll take the guy leaving 8 rounds later..

[Amazinz]

I'm on the avoid Pavano at all costs bandwagon. Not only can you get Lieber cheaper than Pavano, I think he will outperform him.

[Lofunzo]

I'm on the avoid Pavano at all costs bandwagon. Not only can you get Lieber cheaper than Pavano, I think he will outperform him.

Friendly wager?? Or do you want to make it interesting??

[Mookie4ever]

I'm on the avoid Pavano at all costs bandwagon. Not only can you get Lieber cheaper than Pavano, I think he will outperform him.

Why? The NY thing?

Why will Pavano and Wright crap out in NY but RJ is the #1 pitcher? Some pitchers do very well in NY.

[CubsFan7724]

I'm on the avoid Pavano at all costs bandwagon. Not only can you get Lieber cheaper than Pavano, I think he will outperform him.

Why? The NY thing?

Why will Pavano and Wright crap out in NY but RJ is the #1 pitcher? Some pitchers do very well in NY.

Umm, how about because Pavano and Wright have career ERA north of 4.00 and 1.30 WHIP, Wright was never good without Mazzone, and have no where near the track record of Randy Johnson?

[NZF]

Lieber does have excellent control but he is just way too hittable for my liking. He doesn't change speeds, he just throws his fastball in the strike zone. IMO that is a bad sign for a pitcher that will play half his games in what will soon become recognised as the second best hitters park in the majors.

I wouldn't rate Lieber anywhere near Pavano.

Although Pavano should regress somewhat in New York, he's still a very good choice as a 3rd starter and good value if you can get him outside of the Top 100 players.

[Amazinz]

I'm on the avoid Pavano at all costs bandwagon. Not only can you get Lieber cheaper than Pavano, I think he will outperform him.

Friendly wager?? Or do you want to make it interesting??

Sure. I'll take that bet.

I'm on the avoid Pavano at all costs bandwagon. Not only can you get Lieber cheaper than Pavano, I think he will outperform him.

Why? The NY thing?

Why will Pavano and Wright crap out in NY but RJ is the #1 pitcher? Some pitchers do very well in NY.

I'm not sure I understand this question. RJ would be the #1 pitcher if he was pitching on the moon this year. As for Pavano, he was not nearly as good as he looked statistically last year. He is going to get dumped in the AL East. It's not a NY thing, I'm not hating on the Yankees. RJ is my #1 and Mussina/Brown are two guys that I think will outproduce where you can draft them.

[Lofunzo]

Not sure how far you live from me but I will bet you a free night of your favorite swill that Pavano has a better year than Lieber this season.

[Amazinz]

I'm gonna guess that I live about 8 hours from you.

But if you can wait until I visit relatives or friends than that will work.

[Secret Avatar]

Pavano easily. I keep hearing that he's a "one year wonder" but he was once a rising star. He then got sidelined with injuries. He's had two healthy seasons of 200+ IP during which he has shown improvement across the board. Under these circumstances, last year was more likely his breakout year than a fluke. He's got good control, doesn't walk many batters, and doesn't give up HRs. He doesn't get many Ks, either, but he does throw 90-95. The potential for a few more Ks is there. (He was actually more of a K pitcher earlier in his career, before he got hurt, but he didn't have a lot of control.)

I see something like this for him in 2005: 17 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and 140 K with potential upside for a little better. Certainly, it's harder to pitch in the AL East than the NL East, but Yankee stadium is a pretty good pitchers park and he'll get great run support and relief. Plus, if he continues his improvement, and maybe picks up a few more Ks, you could be looking at a real stud.